Summary of the day …
Rachel Reeves is rethinking parts of Labour’s crackdown on non-dom tax status over concerns that the plans will not raise any money. The chancellor is reassessing the government’s manifesto promise to close loopholes in the non-domiciled tax regime
Russell Findlay, the newly elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives, has said his party faces a significant threat from Reform UK in Scotland. Of the 4,155 Scottish Tory members who voted, 2,565 backed Findlay in the first round, with 1,187 votes going to his closest rival, Murdo Fraser
Polling by Savanta suggests that a third of Conservative voters in the 2024 general election believe the party lost because it wasn’t right-wing enough
Systemic failures in the way police deal with stalkers are leaving victims at “serious risk” with some given wrong and “potentially dangerous” advice, a damning report by police chiefs in England and Wales has found
A man who was the first person in the UK to be convicted of a charge of riot after widespread disorder this summer has been jailed for four years and four months
Two Just Stop Oil activists have been jailed for throwing tomato soup over Van Gogh’s Sunflowers
Thank you for reading and all your comments. Andrew Sparrow will be back on Monday, and I will see you here again sometime soon.
We reported earlier that DWP figures released today show the government received about 74,400 pension credit claims in the eight weeks since 29 July, when chancellor Rachel Reeves announced the winter fuel payment would be means-tested.
PA Media is now carrying a government spokesperson statement about the figures:
We are committed to supporting pensioners, with millions set to see their state pension rise by £1,700 this parliament through our commitment to the triple lock.
Given the dire state of the public finances we have inherited, it’s right we target support to those who need it most.
Over a million pensioners will still receive the winter fuel payment, and our drive to boost pension credit take-up has already seen a 152% increase in claims.
Many others will also benefit from the £150 warm home discount to help with energy bills over winter while our extension of the household support fund will help with the cost of food, heating and bills.
Updated
Severin Carrell, the Guardian’s Scotland editor, has this analysis of the challenge facing the newly elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
Through an accident of timing, Russell Findlay will have his first outing as Scottish Conservative leader on Sunday when he addresses the UK party’s annual conference in Birmingham, in the heat and glare of the national lens.
Given his tentative performance after being confirmed as Douglas Ross’s successor earlier on Friday, it is likely to be workmanlike. But in it he needs to flesh out how he thinks the Scottish Tories can recover from their dire general election, when they won their lowest vote share in decades.
The election produced two contradictory messages for the Scottish Tories: despite the UK party’s humiliation in England, the Scottish party held five of their six Westminster seats. But they did so with just 12.7% of the national vote, nearly half that for the Tories UK-wide.
They were caught in a pincer movement from a resurgent Labour party, which recaptured Scotland’s centrist unionist voters, and the upstarts at Reform UK. Not only did a surge in support for Reform lead to defeat for Ross in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, it also won a Scotland-wide 7% share.
If that is repeated at the next Scottish parliament election in May 2026, Reform could well win seats at Holyrood, almost certainly at the Scottish Tories’ expense.
An already crowded political landscape at Holyrood, where six parties hold seats, will become more complex yet.
Findlay faces a significant challenge: does he try to replicate Ross’s strategy of focusing hard on heartland issues such as championing North Sea and combating Scottish independence, or Ruth Davidson’s much more successful recasting of the Tories as centrist one nation unionists.
Ross’s strategy arguably worked: the Tories saved nearly every Westminster seat (apart from his) by focusing narrowly on tribal Tory interests. But if the Scottish Tories remain at 12-13% in 2026, and with a well-funded Reform party nipping at its heels, it faces humiliation under Holyrood’s proportional voting system.
For most non-nationalist voters, a second independence referendum is no longer a signficant concern. Fighting for oil jobs has little appeal outside the north-east, unless Findlay chooses to champion opposition to new windfarms in rural areas.
What may help save him is Reform’s failure to replicate its UK election success in a Holyrood contest: it has no known Scottish leader and must build up a campaign apparatus from nothing. The Scottish general election contest was heavily framed by UK issues. Thankfully for Findlay, Nigel Farage will not be on the Holyrood ballot paper.
Savanta has some polling today which suggests that whoever ends up as the leader of the opposition, they will face a tough time pulling back together the coalition of Conservative voters that propelled the party to successive election victories over the last 14 years.
With most of the leadership hopefuls tacking to the right to try to recapture votes lost to Reform UK, the polling found that a quarter of Conservative voters in 2024 felt the party lost the election in the summer because it wasn’t moderate enough, but a third of Conservative voters in 2024 pin the defeat on the party not being right-wing enough.
My colleagues Fiona Harvey and Helena Horton report that climate and the environment have hardly featured during the lengthy Conservative leadership contest, but that the party will soon have to work out where it is going to position itself on those issues for the coming few years of being in opposition …
Russell Findlay, the newly appointed Conservative leader in Scotland has said on social media “It’s an absolute privilege to be elected.”
He said “The hard work starts now,” adding “Under my leadership, we are going to change. We’ll represent everyone who wants some common sense for a change.”
Thank you all. It’s an absolute privilege to be elected leader of the @ScotTories. The hard work starts now.
— Russell Findlay MSP (@RussellFindlay1) September 27, 2024
Under my leadership, we are going to change. We’ll represent everyone who wants some common sense for a change. 💙
My colleague Alexandra Topping reports that a damning report by police chiefs in England and Wales has found systemic failures in the way police deal with stalkers that are leaving victims at “serious risk”, with some given wrong and “potentially dangerous” advice.
Readers (and live bloggers) of a certain age may recall Martin Bell being elected as an MP in 1997 when he stood as a protest candidate against Neil Hamilton, a man the Guardian famously called a liar and a cheat on a front page in 1996 and who once danced on television while Johnny Vegas threw fish at him. Hamilton is currently honorary president of Ukip.
Bell has written for the Guardian today, arguing “It’s not just the money, it’s the sense of entitlement. That’s the cause of sleaze in UK politics”
Severin Carrell is the Guardian’s Scotland editor
Murdo Fraser, the veteran Scottish Conservative MSP who came second in the party’s leadership contest, has said it could be necessary for the Scottish party to openly disagree with the next UK Tory leader, to maintain its distinct policy agenda.
Fraser was soundly beaten in the contest on Friday morning by his rival Russell Findlay, a relatively inexperienced MSP and former crime reporter who won with 61.7% of the votes in the first round.
Asked whether he believed the Scottish party needed to be outspoken in protecting its centre-right positioning if the new UK leader pulled the party to the right, Fraser said:
I think there is a delicate balancing act here, because you don’t want to be continually at war with your colleagues south of the border.
And I think there are a lot of issues that can be resolved privately behind the scenes, which is far better, but there may be instances where it’s necessary for the Scottish leader to disagree publicly with the UK leader as indeed, as was referred to earlier, Ruth [Davidson] was prepared to do when she was leader. But you know, I think these should be exceptions rather than the rule.
Many pundits believe the Scottish Tories revival under Davidson was in part due to her often outspoken disagreements with UK Conservative leaders. She sought to construct a distinctively one nation centre-right policy agenda in Scotland, backing gender reforms, immigration and the European Union.
Speaking to reporters after his victory was confirmed, Findlay said he would prefer to keep policy disagreements with the new UK leader confidential. He said the fact the party was in opposition made that task easier.
Whoever prevails [in the UK leadership contest] will need to work closely and respectfully with the Scottish leader and inevitably it’s healthy that there will be disagreements. If that’s done privately and respectfully, that’s a perfectly reasonable thing to do.
Of course the dynamic is somewhat different because the Conservatives are no longer the government, so we do perhaps have that breathing space to have those more frank discussions without the pressure of day to day government.
Political correspondent Eleni Courea reports
Rachel Reeves is rethinking parts of Labour’s crackdown on non-dom tax status over concerns that the plans will not raise any money.
The chancellor is reassessing the government’s manifesto promise to close loopholes in the non-domiciled tax regime.
The Guardian revealed this week that Treasury officials feared the spending watchdog was due to conclude the policy would fail to raise any money, because of the impact of super-rich non-domiciles leaving the UK.
Reeves is now reconsidering the plans, according to multiple reports. A government official told the Financial Times: “We are looking at the details of our proposals. We will be pragmatic, not ideological. We won’t press on regardless, but we are not going to abandon this completely.”
After the Conservatives unexpectedly announced plans to phase out the non-dom regime, Labour said they hoped to raise a further £2.6bn over the course of a parliament by clamping down on loopholes.
The party later predicted that closing these loopholes could raise an initial £1bn in the first year, which would be put towards funding universal school breakfast clubs and more hospital and dental appointments.
However, there are concerns inside the Treasury that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) may now conclude the plans will raise no money at all and could prompt wealthy foreigners to leave the UK.
Andy Haldane, a former chief economist at the Bank of England, said earlier this week that there should be “cause for pause” on the government’s plan.
The OBR originally forecast that scrapping the tax break for wealthy foreigners could raise about £3.2bn a year – though this was deemed to be “highly uncertain” as wealthy people could either leave Britain or find ways to avoid the tightening of tax rules.
Read more from Eleni Courea here: Rachel Reeves reconsiders end to non-dom tax status over OBR forecast fears
DWP figures released today show the government received about 74,400 pension credit claims in the eight weeks since 29 July, when chancellor Rachel Reeves announced the winter fuel payment would be means-tested.
PA Media reports this is up from 29,500 claims in the eight weeks before the announcement, and that over 90% of the claims were made online.
Only claimants of certain benefits, including pension credit and universal credit, will now receive a winter fuel payment after the decision by Keir Starmer’s government.
Conservative leadership hopeful Kemi Badenoch has added her congratulations to Russell Findlay on being elected the leader of the party in Scotland. She said:
Congratulations Russell Findlay on being elected leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party. I look forward to working with you to renew our party in Scotland and across the whole United Kingdom.
The newly elected leader of the Conservatives in Scotland, Russell Findlay, refused to be drawn earlier on who he was supporting in the national leadership contest, but James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat have been first out of the blocks among the four candidates to congratulate him on social media.
Congratulations to @RussellFindlay1 on winning the leadership of the Scottish Conservatives.
— James Cleverly🇬🇧 (@JamesCleverly) September 27, 2024
Strengthening the Union is a key principle of our Conservative values. I look forward to working with you in the months and years ahead.
Congratulations, @RussellFindlay1.
— Tom Tugendhat (@TomTugendhat) September 27, 2024
You ran a principled campaign.
I look forward to seeing you at conference and working with you to serve our United Kingdom.
The leader of the opposition, Rishi Sunak, has also welcomed the appointment, saying he looks forward “to working with you to strengthen the Union.”
Congratulations @RussellFindlay1 on becoming @ScotTories leader. I look forward to working with you to strengthen the Union. https://t.co/GpwxjYBQH2
— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) September 27, 2024
Regular readers will know that it doesn’t take much to persuade me to include a picture of a dog in the live blog, and the fact that Steve Darling’s guide dog Jennie has her own social media account has made that a lot easier. Jennie, styled as “leader of the opawsition”, has posted a picture* of her visit to the Dartmouth steam railway and river boat company’s 100th anniversary celebration.
I'm no old sea dog but I very much enjoyed my time at Dartmouth Steam Railway and River Boat Company's 100th anniversary celebration of their Paddle Steamer Kingswear Castle! pic.twitter.com/VBqAWLO16B
— Rt Hon Jennie (@RtHonJen) September 27, 2024
[*presumably Jennie had help]
Government acquires semiconductor factory near Darlington to save jobs
The government has acquired a semiconductor factory near Darlington after fears its closure would cost jobs and leave the UK with a gap in its ability to manufacture crucial electronic chips.
The Ministry of Defence has said the company at Newton Aycliffe in County Durham is the only secure facility with the capability to produce gallium arsenide chips, used in electronic devices.
PA Media reports defence secretary John Healey visited the site this morning, saying:
Semiconductors are at the forefront of the technology we rely upon today, and will be crucial in securing our military’s capabilities for tomorrow. This acquisition is a clear signal that our government will back British defence production. We’ll protect and grow our UK defence supply chain, supporting north-east jobs, safeguarding crucial tech for our armed forces and boosting our national security.
In the questions after the announcement that Russell Findlay would be the new leader of the Conservatives in Scotland he refused to be drawn over who he is supporting in the national leadership contest.
Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat remain in the running to replace former prime minister Rishi Sunak as official leader of the opposition, with the result expected at the end of next month.
Findlay said:
Obviously we still don’t know who the new UK leader is going to be. I’ve deliberately kept out of that particular discussion, because whoever prevails at the UK level will need to work closely and respectfully with the Scottish leader.
And inevitably, it’s healthy that there will be disagreements, if that’s done privately and respectfully. That’s a perfectly reasonable thing to do.
Of course, the dynamic is somewhat different in that the Conservatives are no longer in government at UK level, so we do, perhaps, have that breathing space to have more frank discussions without the sort of pressure of day-to-day governance.
He did, however, express a preference for the UK remaining in the ECHR “as things stand”, something that Jenrick earlier this morning committed to leaving if he won the leadership contest and then went on to be prime minister in the future.
Findlay told supporters in Edinburgh:
We’ve got four candidates for the UK leadership. They’re all talking about various issues, including the withdrawal potentially from the ECHR. I think it’s right that they have that discussion. And going forward, I will talk with the new leader. I’m of the view that we should remain in the ECHR as things stand. But the problem with people smuggling gangs is that nothing so far has worked. And I think, therefore, it’s quite right that now we’re not in government, now we’re trying to find a new leader, and a new way forward, nothing should be off the table.
Badenoch and Cleverly have both rejected the idea of leaving the ECHR, while Tugendhat has called for reform of it.
Russell Findlay took a swipe at the SNP and said he would “never apologise for standing up for the Union” during the question and answer session after the announcement in Edinburgh that he had won the Scottish Conservative leadership election.
He said:
We will never apologise for standing up for the Union. We are Unionists to our core, and we should take great pride in the fact that we have successfully prevented the break-up of the United Kingdom.
The SNP are down, but they’re far from out. But what we need to do is not just talk about stopping another independence referendum. Not just talk about stopping the SNP in their tracks. But come up with a range of proper conservative policies that people understand are in their best interests, stuff relating to education, the economy, the health service, justice, and that’s the way in which we persuade people that what we have to offer is right for them.
Russell Findlay, newly elected as leader of the Conservatives in Scotland, finished his speech by saying:
We will work hard to earn your trust by doing things differently. We will be a voice for decent mainstream Scotland and the values of hard work, self reliance and value for taxpayers. We’ll spend our time and energy on your concerns, your hopes and your needs. We know that you don’t expect miracles from politicians. We know you want common sense for a change, and we are determined to deliver it.
He then took questions from the media, during which he addressed voters in Scotland deserting the Conservatives for Reform UK, saying:
We are acutely conscious of their vote share in the general election, and as leader, it’s our job to reconnect with those people who feel, frankly, scunnered by a lot of politicians, and persuade them that what we stand for represents their interests.
Reform UK came fifth in the general election in Scotland by vote share, with 7% of the vote. The Conservatives were third with 12.7% of the vote, a share which had dropped by over 12 points.
Speaking in Edinburgh after being elected the new leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Russell Findlay has said everyone in the party must “come together as one united team” to win back the trust of the public.
He said:
I want to deliver a message to people across Scotland who do not feel that anyone represents them, who are scunnered by the divisiveness and the fringe obsessions of the Scottish parliament, who feel let down and failed by politicians of every single party – sometimes including ours – who think politicians are all the same.
If you feel that way, I get it. But I’m not the same. I’m not a career politician. I understand your frustrations, and your sense that nobody really represents the views that you share and hold, and that is going to change under my leadership, The Scottish conservatives are going to change.
Findlay was first elected as an MSP in 2021.
Russell Findlay is speaking, he starts by thanking all of his team, and then makes a joke by saying he thanks “every sausage … no, every supporter.”
Russell Findlay MSP wins Scottish Conservative leadership election
Severin Carrell is the Guardian’s Scotland editor
Russell Findlay, a former crime reporter, has been appointed as the next leader of the Scottish Conservatives after the most fractious period in the party’s history.
Findlay, a relative newcomer to the Scottish parliament, beat the party veteran Murdo Fraser and its former deputy leader Meghan Gallacher after a short contest triggered by the resignation of Douglas Ross.
The clear favourite to win after a well-organised and extensive campaign, Findlay had been endorsed by Ruth Davidson, the Scottish party’s most successful recent leader, and a host of Holyrood backbenchers.
Ross stood down as leader after a rebellion by MSPs and activists over his decision to replace a widely liked candidate who was recovering from a medical operation, David Duguid, as the general election candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
After the backlash, Ross became the only Scottish Tory to lose a Westminster seat that the party was defending after a surge in support for Reform UK. Reform won 5,562 votes, well above Ross’s margin of defeat by 942 votes to the Scottish National party candidate.
The leadership contest was marred by infighting, accusations of dirty tricks and angry disputes involving Gallacher and John Lamont, the Tory MP who serves as shadow Scotland secretary.
Those rows included the resumption of an old feud between Davidson and Fraser over Fraser’s proposals for a breakaway Scottish party dating to 2011, when they both stood for the leadership. Davidson accused Fraser of plotting to resurrect that proposal by stealth if he had won the leadership, a charge he denied.
The result is …
Russell Findlay, 2,565 votes
Murdo Fraser, 1,187 votes
Meghan Gallacher, 403 votes
In Edinburgh they are about to announce the new leader of the Conservative party in Scotland. Party chair Craig Hoy is speaking, I’ll bring you the key lines …
Robert Jenrick, who is still favourite at the moment for the Conservative party UK leadership, has been campaigning on immigration again this morning, posting a two minute video to social media.
In the video he says “I’d like to think of myself as a reasonable, pragmatic guy, but on this issue [immigration], what I saw [when I was in government] made me realise we need radical action.”
He said “When I became minister for immigration, I saw terrorists coming into our country and hundreds of known criminals in Dover.”
Under his watch, murals were painted over in a reception centre for asylum-seeking children who had entered the country.
Looking beyond the current leadership contest, Jenrick says “If I became Conservative leader and one day prime minister, I will end the madness.”
He says he will leave the ECHR, stop international aid to countries that refuse to accept deportations, restrict visas, and “pass legislation to declare evidently safe countries as safe,” naming Turkey, Brazil and Vietnam.
Referring to what he terms “asylum shoppers on the continent” he says he will end what he rermed “soft touch Britain.”
We must end the madness.
— Robert Jenrick (@RobertJenrick) September 27, 2024
Anyone who comes here illegally should be automatically deported.
I increased deportations of those here illegally by 50%. But we need to go much further. pic.twitter.com/JPySCBUdKd
If the quality of water in England is of interest to you, then Phoebe Weston has an interesting piece today worth a read here …
Read more here: How drug pollution flooded England’s national parks – and put human health at risk
The press pack in the US have asked Keir Starmer about his conference speech gaffe where he initially referred to “sausages” rather than “hostages”. The prime minister said “I just mangled the beginning of the word,” adding – in what appears to be a meat-related pun – “These things are there to give you all the opportunity to rib me.”
Thornberry: Trump 'styles out' allegations that he is racist but 'important to have meetings with him'
Labour MP Emily Thornberry, asked about the prime minister meeting potential future US president, has said that Donald Trump “styles it out somewhat” with alleged racism.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee chair said:
If he’s president and he starts caging Mexican children, then that needs to be called out. We are actually in a really strong position now, in that if you think about all the other G7 countries, we are a country that we have just had an election, we have a progressive Government with a large majority and stability in front of us - a good five years of the same leader. And if you look at the other G7 countries, they don’t necessarily have that.
PA Media reports askedwhether Mr Trump should be labelled a “racist”, Thornberry said: “It depends how he is behaving. I mean, he seems – he styles it out somewhat, doesn’t he, these allegations? I mean, you know, we hear about the dogs and cats and so on just a few weeks ago. If I was at dinner with someone who said things like that, then I would call it out.”
Thornberry was referring to the Trump campaign recently claiming, without evidence, that immigrants were stealing and eating pets, an oft-repeated racist trope.
She went on to say:
Donald Trump may be the president of the United States in a couple of months’ time so of course, it’s important to have meetings with him and to build a relationship with him.
Whatever criticisms one may have of Donald Trump, the point is that the office of president is one that needs to be properly respected and the Americans are very close friends of ours.
I think that this is an initial meeting, so there needs to be a certain amount of relationship building and we take it from there [but] I do think that if there are things the American president does or says that we disagree with, then we shouldn’t pull our punches.
We might be about to find out who the new Scottish leader of the Conservatives is, but we are still some distance away from finding out who the next UK-wide leader of the opposition will be, as the Conservative party leadership election continues until the end of October.
Frances Ryan has written for us today, suggesting there is “little sign that the Conservatives have any real understanding of what got them” to electoral defeat in July.
Read more here: Frances Ryan – Of course the wannabe Tory leaders have regrets. They think they weren’t toxic or nasty enough
New leader of the Scottish Conservatives to be announced
The new leader of the Scottish Conservatives is expected to be announced at 10am. Russell Findlay, Murdo Fraser and Meghan Gallacher are the three options on the ballot paper to take over from Douglas Ross.
The Conservatives are currently the second largest group in the Scottish parliament with 31 MSPs. The Conservatives returned five MPs from Scotland in July’s general election.
Brian Whittle, Jamie Greene and Liam Kerr previously dropped their bids to lead the party at Holyrood.
Almost immediately whoever wins will be taking part in a ceremony to mark the 25th anniversary of devolution being on Saturday, before heading to the Conservative conference in Birmingham which begins on Sunday.
Welcome and opening summary …
Good morning, and welcome to Friday’s UK politics live blog. We are expecting to find out who will be the new leader of the Conservatives in Scotland at 10am. Here are your headlines …
Keir Starmer is in the US and has met with Donald Trump in a push for a good relationship if the latter wins November’s tight US election race
Starmer has also attempted to downplay interest in his living arrangements, saying the public can make their own judgments about gifts and maintains no rules have been broken
Former cabinet minister Sayeeda Warsi has resigned the Conservative whip, saying the party had moved too far to the right
Campaign groups have urged the government to cancel major road building schemes including the Lower Thames Crossing
Aside from the Scottish Conservative leadership election, there is not a great deal in the political diary today, with the House of Lords the only legislature sitting today, and Amanda Burton and Sir Martin Donnelly appearing at the Post Office Horizon IT inquiry the most notable other things scheduled.
It is Martin Belam with you today – do drop me a line at martin.belam@theguardian.com if you spot typos, errors or omissions.
