Everton need have no fear for the final eight games of the season. That's because, Opta, the acclaimed sports statistics company, have proclaimed the Toffees safe from relegation this season,
If only it were that easy. In reality, Opta's recent analysis has the club finishing just above the drop zone, in 17th place. The new prediction is made considering recent performances and the difficulty of the Toffees remaining games compared to the other teams around them.
In Everton's place, the London-based company have condemned bottom-of-the-table Southampton, Nottingham Forest, and the not-too-distant champions Leicester City to life in England's second tier next term.
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This new set of predictions comes from the clubs' performances over the last two weeks and the difficulty of their upcoming games. The club with the most significant change in fortune is Leicester, who were only given a 29.2% chance of relegation on April 6th and now sit at a worrying 50.9%.
Despite not being in the bottom three, Everton have seen their own chances of relegation increase slightly from 36.8% to 41.4% in the same period. Although, with the added context of a loss away to Manchester United and a hard-fought home draw with Tottenham, the figures are slightly misleading.
The slight increase primarily stems from Everton's terrible form away from home, with the club winning just one game in their last 17 on the road, with that victory coming all the way back in October against the league's whipping boys, Southampton.
Their perilous run-in is compounding Everton's misery further, with only one other relegation-threatened team facing a more challenging run of games, Nottingham Forest. In the club's final eight games, they travel to Brighton, Crystal Palace, Leicester and Wolves – and a daunting home tie against Manchester City.
The club that Opta view as Everton’s biggest rival – outside of the bottom three – is Leeds United. The Yorkshire club have been given a 23.2% chance of relegation, a significant 18.2% less than the Toffees, but with games against Liverpool, City, Newcastle, and Tottenham to come, Dyche will be hoping his side can capitalise on any potential slip ups.
On the other end of the scale sit Roy Hodgson's Crystal Palace, who, following recent wins against relegation rivals Leeds and Leicester, have decreased their chances of going down to just 0.2%. That number is also heavily influenced by the fact that they have by far the most manageable run-in of any side in the league.
Dyche won't be resting on his laurels though. He's experienced enough to know that statistics and predictions can quickly fly out of the window in a relegation battle, and his Burnley sides were experts at performing contrary to statistical models and predictions.
Everton continue their fight against the drop on Saturday at 3pm when they host Marco Silva’s Fulham side at Goodison.
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