After missing the playoffs for the first time in what seemed like forever (it was 12 years), the New England Patriots earned a wild-card spot in 2021 with a 10-7 record. They were blown out by Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs, but it was a positive step in the post-Tom Brady era.
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Coaching
Bill Belichick will coach the Patriots for the 23rd season. Belichick has a 254-99 record in New England with six Super Bowl wins and three other trips to the big game. The Patriots have gone 31-13 in the postseason since 2001. Belichick needs 39 wins to pass Don Shula for the most in NFL history. The Pats won the AFC East 11 times over the past 13 seasons (16 titles over the last 19 years).
New England pushed to the 15th in yards gained, 12 spots higher than 2020. They scored 462 points (sixth), 136 points higher than 2020.
The Patriots didn’t name an offensive or defensive coordinator in 2022. Former Giants head coach Joe Judge has the inside track to call plays after working in New England for eight seasons prior. In his first experience as a head coach with the Giants, he went 10-23.
Their defense finished second in points allowed (303, after allowing 353 in 2020) while ranking fourth in defensive yards allowed.
Free Agency
The Patriots lost CB J.C. Jackson (LAC) and LB Dont’a Hightower (FA) from their defense. In addition, they took a flier on S Jabrill Peppers after underperforming his first-round draft pedigree in 2017. He missed the final 11 games last season due to a torn ACL in his right knee. G Ted Karras signed with the Bengals after improving his pass blocking in 2021.
Draft
New England added 10 players in this year’s draft. They added three offensive linemen – G Cole Strange (1.29), C Chasen Hines (6.32) and T Andrew Stueber (7.24). On offense, the Patriots invested in WR Tyquan Thornton (2.18), RB Pierre Strong (4.22), QB Bailey Zappe (4.32) and RB Kevin Harris (6.4). The only players selected to upgrade the defense were CB Marcus Jones (3.21), CB Jack Jones (4.16) and DT Sam Roberts (6.22).
Offensive Line
The Patriots finished eighth in rushing in yards (2,151) with 24 touchdowns, but they only had eight runs of 20 yards or more. They averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 28.7 rushes per game. New England threw the ball 535 times (31.5 per matchup), leading to 4,098 yards (14th) with 24 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. They gained 7.7 yards per pass attempt while allowing 28 sacks.
New England traded G Shaq Mason to Tampa Bay for a 2022 fifth-round draft pick in mid-March. His best asset came in the run game last year. The Patriots expect G Cole Strange to fill his role while offering a higher ceiling. Overall, this offensive line projects well in run blocking, and the growth and quick release of QB Mac Jones points to a low sack total plus a longer passing window.
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Offense
The structure of the Patriots’ offense points to a heavy volume run game while playing well on defense. QB Mac Jones will have more liberties in the passing game, but he needs his wide receiver corps to improve. Last year, New England ran the ball 47.8% of the time.
Quarterback
Mac Jones
After a successful training camp as a rookie, New England quickly shifted to Jones as their starting quarterback. His year started with a 2-4 record while delivering 245 passing yards per game with seven combined touchdowns and six interceptions. Jones led the Patriots to wins in each matchup over the next seven weeks despite averaging under 200 passing yards and 24.7 passes. Due to weather, he did have an outlier game in Week 13 vs. the Bills (only three pass attempts). Over his final five starts (including the playoffs), Jones went 1-4 with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Despite finishing 18th in quarterback scoring (279.75 fantasy points) in four-point passing touchdown leagues, he only posted three playable games (25.25, 24.60 and 24.55 fantasy points). Jones has minimal value in the run game (44/129). He showed strength in his completion rate (67.6) with better play at home (2,242 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and seven interceptions).
Fantasy Outlook: New England added WR DeVante Parker and WR Tyquan Thornton in the offseason, but it may not translate into impactful passing stats for Jones. The Patriots have a history of throwing the ball more, and they will continue to have success scoring on the ground. This year, he’ll be a QB2 in fantasy leagues with matchup value at home. Jones comes off the board as the 21st quarterback in the early draft season. His next step should be 4,300 combined yards with a run at 30 touchdowns.
Bailey Zappe
Over his first four seasons at Houston Baptist, Zappe passed for 10,004 yards with 78 touchdowns and 39 interceptions while offering short plays on the ground (271/243/3). His ceiling reached an explosive level in 2021 after transferring to Western Kentucky. He passed for 5,967 yards with 62 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Zappe upped his completion rate to 69.1%.
Fantasy Outlook: The Patriots view him as a project, with the hopes that Zappe can develop into a trusted backup quarterback.
Other Options: Brian Hoyer, Jarrett Stidham, D’Eriq King
Running Backs
Over the past two seasons without Tom Brady under center, the pass-catching opportunities for the Patriots’ running backs dropped by 44 and 56 targets. On the flip side, their run game excelled in yards per rush (4.8 and 4.7) while leading the league in rushing touchdowns (24) by their running backs in 2021. As a result, their backfield gained 2,834 combined yards with 26 scores and 93 catches (31.32 fantasy points per game in PPR formats).
Damien Harris
In his third season in the NFL, Harris gained 1,061 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 18 catches. He missed two games with concussion and hamstring issues. New England had him on the field for 36.2% of their plays while receiving over half of the running back snaps in only three matchups. As a result, Harris had the most value when the Patriots played from the lead. He gained over 100 yards in five contests (23/100, 18/101/1, 14/106/2, 10/111/1 and 18/103/3), with four of those games coming at home. Over his final 11 matchups, Harris delivered a score in 10 weeks (14 touchdowns).
Fantasy Outlook: When touchdowns drive a running back's success, their fantasy value may not be repeatable the following year. There is no doubt Harris brings upside to New England’s run game, but the Patriots had an excellent backup running back (Rhamondre Stevenson) while adding a pair of backs in this year's draft. At best, 250 touches for 1,150 yards with double-digit scores and about 20 catches. Harris had an ADP of 73 in the National Fantasy Football Championship in early May as the 27th running back selected.
Rhamondre Stevenson
The Patriots gave Stevenson minimal chances (127 combined yards with one touchdown and five on 30 touches) over their first eight games. In Week 10, with Harris injured, he broke loose for an impact game (20/100/2 with four catches for 14 yards). His success led to a rotational role over New England’s final seven matchups (442 combined yards with two scores and seven catches on 93 touches). Stevenson also shined in Week 17 (19/107/2).
Fantasy Outlook: There is a lot to like with Stevenson, but he does overlap Harris in style and power. He shows the ability to make plays in tight quarters while finishing with strength. His pass blocking improved later in the year, but Stevenson doesn’t have the ideal skill set to earn top passing catching snaps. His natural progression puts him on a path for 1,000 combined yards with 8-10 scores and a potential push to 30-plus catches. I prefer to draft him over Harris based on his ADP (101) in the NFFC in early May.
James White
The path of White in 2019 had a strange feeling after finishing seventh in RB scoring (277.1) in PPR leagues in 2018. His one impact game (177 combined yards with two touchdowns and eight catches) came in Week 13 in 2019, but White didn’t score over 16.0 fantasy points in any other contest.
In 2020, he finished with 496 combined yards with three touchdowns and 49 catches over 14 games. After catching 15 passes for 103 yards in two games (Weeks 4 and 6), Cam Newton struggled to get him the ball over the final 10 games (31/242/1) while also dealing with the loss of his father. Last year he only played in three games (136 combined yards with one score and 12 catches on 22 touches) due to a season-ending hip injury.
Fantasy Outlook: White will undoubtedly be the Patriots’ third-down back if healthy. From 2015-20, he caught 364 passes for 3,161 yards and 25 touchdowns over 89 games. White will be limited in training camp, but he expects to be ready by opening day. White will be challenging for time while offering a fair price point (ADP of 213).
Pierre Strong
New England found another up-the-middle runner with the addition of Strong. He brings home-run speed to the Patriots’ backfield. His best value comes when finding a clean lane where his shoulder fakes and slide steps create long runs. His challenge comes when stalling in tight quarters, where his lack of short-area quickness hurts his ability to get out of trouble. Strong plays bigger than his frame (5’11” and 210 lbs.).
Over 47 games at South Dakota State, he gained 5,108 combined yards with 43 touches and 62 catches. His highlight season came in 2021 (240/1,686/18 with 22 catches for 150 yards).
Fantasy Outlook: Strong offers an early-down insurance card while also being a potential closing back when the Patriots play from a big lead.
Other Options; Kevin Harris, J.J. Taylor
Wide Receivers
Despite receiving only 53% of the Patriots’ passing completions in 2021, their wideouts had a rebound in catches (193), receiving yards (2,397), touchdowns (12) and targets (292). Their catch rate (66.1) came in higher than 2019 (59.7) and 2020 (63.9).
Jakobi Meyers
For the second straight season, Meyers set career-highs in catches (83), receiving yards (866) and targets (126) while scoring his first two touchdowns. However, he failed to gain over 100 yards in all 18 games while delivering two empty weeks (1/8 and 0/0). Meyers caught six passes or more in seven contests. He ranked 29th in wide receiver scoring (187.75 fantasy points) in PPR leagues while scoring over 15.00 fantasy points in only three games (9/94, 8/70, and 8/73/1).
Fantasy Outlook: Meyer brings a possession skill set with questionable scoring upside. His catch rate (67.7) commands more looks, which will come with more passing attempts by the Patriots. Despite his progression, Meyers is the 53rd wide receiver drafted in the early draft season in the NFFC with an ADP of 144. Meyers makes a lot of sense for a fantasy team looking for a steady player with bye week or short-term injury cover. He will continue to be a top-two wideout for New England with a chance to catch 90 passes for 1,000 yards with short touchdowns.
DeVante Parker
Over seven seasons with Miami, Parker delivered only one impact year (72/1,202/9 – 2019). Last year, he missed seven games with a shoulder injury, leading to 40 catches for 515 yards and two touchdowns on 73 targets. Parker brings big play and scoring ability, but he’ll start the year at age 29.
Fantasy Outlook: The change to New England may lead to a rebound in his game, and fantasy managers won’t fight for him on draft day. With an ADP of 168 in the early draft season in the high-stakes market, Parker does have the potential to post a WR3 season. I think of him as a four-catch-a-week guy that should average over 11.00 fantasy points per game when on the field.
Kendrick Bourne
Over the past two seasons, Bourne developed into a sneaky backend wide receiver despite receiving only 144 combined targets. Last year, he set career-highs in catches (55) and receiving yards (800) with five touchdowns and some value in the run game (12/125). The Patriots used him deeper in the passing game (14.5 yards per catch), leading to 10 catches of 20 yards or more (five of these plays gained at least 40 yards). When given a chance to catch the ball, Bourne caught 78.6% of his targets.
Fantasy Outlook: New England should give him WR3 snaps again this year, but he should still rank fifth in chances behind the running position, Jakobi Meyers, DeVante Parker and Hunter Henry. Outside chance at 60 catches with 5-7 touchdowns.
Tyquan Thornton
When looking for a player in this year’s draft to create an edge in the deep passing game, New England landed on Thornton. At the 2022 NFL combine, he posted a 4.28 40-yard dash. Unfortunately, Thornton needs to add bulk (6’2” and 180 pounds) and strength to improve his ceiling. In addition, his release will be a problem early in his career, and his hands (8.25) don’t match his size.
Over four seasons at Baylor, Thornton caught 143 passes for 2,242 yards and 19 touchdowns over 245 targets. His best success came in 2021 (62/948/10).
Fantasy Outlook: I’m sure Thornton will get on the field this year when New England uses four-wide receiver sets. Once he fills out, his ceiling should be much higher. But, for now, only a player to follow.
Nelson Agholor
The Eagles used Agholor close to the line of scrimmage over five seasons, which led to him gaining only 11.2 yards per catch. His best two years in Philly came in 2017 (62/768/8) and 2018 (64/736/4). After signing with the Raiders, Las Vegas featured him as a deep threat in 2020. Agholor finished with 48 catches for 896 yards and eight touchdowns over 82 targets (18.7 yards per catch). He had 15 catches over 20 yards, with five of those plays gaining over 40 yards.
In his first year with New England, Agholor failed to live up to expectations, leading to 37 catches for 473 yards and three touchdowns on 64 targets. His season ended with only 16 catches for 156 yards and one score over eight games.
Fantasy Outlook: He has a lot to prove this season. Agholor will compete with Thornton for the WR4 role, pointing to a minimal opportunity.
N’Keal Harry
I’d love to say that Harry will become fantasy relevant, but it would take a lot of faith in his game after three quiet seasons (12/105/2, 33/309/2 and 12/184) with New England.
Other Options: Ty Montgomery, Tre Nixon, Kristian Wilkerson
Tight Ends
After two dismal seasons in tight end production (37/419/2 and 18/254/1), the Patriots addressed this issue by signing TEs Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Their tight ends finished with 78 catches for 897 yards and 10 touchdowns on 120 targets.
Hunter Henry
In his first year with New England, Henry played an entire season for the first time in his career. He scored seven times over his first 10 games with 31 catches for 353 yards. Over his final seven starts, Henry had two solid games (6/77/2 and 5/86) but emptiness in his other five matchups (2/25, 2/16, 0/0, 1/9 and 3/37). He finished 10th in tight end scoring (164.30 fantasy points) in PPR leagues despite receiving only 75 targets.
Fantasy Outlook: Over his last 43 games, Henry caught 165 passes for 1,868 yards and 18 touchdowns on 244 targets (10.70 fantasy points per game). The Patriots won’t give him enough chances to push much higher in the tight end rankings, with Smith still expected to be active in the passing game. Possible 65 catches for 800 yards and help in touchdowns with an ADP of 132 in the NFFC in early May.
Jonnu Smith
Last draft season, Smith drew a higher ADP than TE Hunter Henry in many drafts. Unfortunately, he failed to live up to expectations. After catching nine passes for 70 yards on 10 targets through two games. Mac Jones only looked his way 35 times over his final 14 contests, leading to only 19 catches for 224 yards and one score.
Fantasy Outlook: I expect Smith to play better this season, and he does bring scoring ability. He projects to be a low TE2 with the talent to post some playable games.
Other Options: Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene
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Kicker
Nick Folk
Folk delivered his best success kicking the ball over the past two seasons with New England. He made 62 of his 67 field goals (92.5%) with success over 50 yards (7-for-11). On the downside, Folk did miss eight of his extra points chances.
Fantasy Outlook: The Patriots scored 51 touchdowns last year while creating 39 field goal tries. He’ll start the season at age 37 while coming off a career year. On the improve, but New England will score many times in close via the run. Folk is worth a fantasy ride if the Patriots repeat their scoring success from last year.
Defense
The Patriots allowed 4.5 yards per rush again in 2021, but they inched up to 21st in rushing yards (2,103). Their defense gave up nine rushing touchdowns with 13 runs over 20 yards. Offenses ran the ball 27.3 times against them.
New England had the second-best defense vs. quarterbacks (3,181 yards with 21 touchdowns and 23 interceptions). Their defense finished with 36 sacks.
LB Matthew Judon set a career-high in sacks (12.5), but he struggled against the run. Their secondary has more risk this season after losing CB J.C. Jackson in the offseason. New England needs multiple cornerbacks to step up if their defense wants to maintain this ranking against the pass. LB Ja’Whaun Bentley raised his game in tackles (109), but their defensive line lacks impact players to shut down the run and attack the quarterback.
I expect regression across the board by the Patriots’ defense, which may be a win for Mac Jones and their receivers. I only see matchup fantasy value.
