The arrival of £200m of extra rolling stock on the Elizabeth line will boost services in central London to a train almost every two minutes.
Indicative timetables published by Transport for London also propose 18 trains an hour calling at the new HS2 station in Old Oak Common – one every three-and-a-half minutes.
Funding for an additional 10 trains – which will take the “Lizzie line” fleet to 80 trains – was announced by the Tory government last month ahead of the election.
However, full details only emerged on Friday when the Department for Transport revealed that it had awarded TfL £220.5m to purchase the new trains from Alstom in Derby - simultaneously providing a major boost to a key UK-based train manufacturer.
The DfT published a letter sent on June 14 by Mark Harper, then the Transport Secretary, to Mayor Sadiq Khan.
In the letter, Mr Harper said he expected the trains to be delivered in “financial years 2026-27 and 2027-28” and would enable there to be 18 trains an hour at Old Oak Common when HS2 services start running in 2030.
TfL made the request for more trains last year after projections warned that London-bound rush hour passengers faced having to stand all the way from Romford or West Drayton – journeys of 30 minutes or more – due to the soaring popularity of the line.
The opening of Old Oak Common station is expected to result in a 50 per cent increase in crowding on Elizabeth line services into Paddington. This could continue for at least a decade, until Euston becomes HS2’s London terminal.
Mr Harper wrote: “With strong demand growth forecast on the line, and Government’s ambition to deliver HS2 to its permanent terminus at Euston and for the redevelopment of the Euston Quarter, it is essential that the Elizabeth Line has sufficient capacity to accommodate a significant increase in demand.
“On 28 May, Transport for London submitted its business case to the department seeking Government funding for 10 additional Elizabeth Line trains.
“TfL’s business case was clear that these additional trains – and the increased service levels that they would facilitate - would be needed to respond to passenger demand and make an important contribution to realising the full benefits of HS2, improving transport services for passengers and supporting the regeneration of the Old Oak Common and Park Royal areas of London.”
At present, there are 20 to 24 Elizabeth line trains an hour in both directions between Paddington and Whitechapel at the busiest times, and 16 at quieter times.
But TfL has revealed that it is looking to increase peak frequencies in the line’s central section to 26 or 28 trains an hour after securing the order for the new trains.
Under one of the options, frequencies between Canary Wharf and Abbey Wood could be increased from 12 to 14 trains an hour.
This section of the line is predicted to see a 12 per cent increase in passengers by 2031, meaning passengers boarding at Abbey Wood will be unable to find a seat on the nine-carriage trains.
The “Lizzie line” has become the UK’s busiest railway since it opened just over two years ago.
Almost 790,000 journeys are made on the busiest weekdays, with overcrowding already commonplace at peak times on the line’s western section between West Drayton and Paddington.
But the new trains will also have the effect of increasing services and demand, TfL documents have warned – an additional 22 million passengers per year in the eastern and central sections, plus a further 16m passengers on the western section to and from West Drayton.
This would equate to about a 20 per cent increase in passengers on the line, which saw 210m journeys in 2023/24.
Documents presented to TfL’s programmes and investment committee state: “Increases in frequency will enable further housing development or encourage development to happen more quickly.
“Particular opportunity areas include Old Oak Common, Stratford, Custom House, Woolwich and Abbey Wood.
“This addition also supports the forecast residential and commercial growth along the line, including the planned 25,000 new homes and 65,000 new jobs around Old Oak Common station.”
TfL chiefs have to decide whether to prioritise the western or eastern section of the line for more trains.
Further planning will be done this year. Increasing frequencies on the eastern section would be easier than to the west of Paddington, where there are more “interfaces” with other train operators and freight services.
Expanding capacity on both sections would require more than 80 trains. TfL has an option to order a further three trains from Alstom but has no plans to do so at present, a spokeswoman said.
The number of journeys on the Elizabeth line is 21 per cent up on last year, generating £24million extra in fares – a total of £97million for the second four-week period of the current financial year.
