A new Covid-19 wave for the UK is expected to be on the horizon after new strains have been spreading through the nation.
The strain BA.1 is the original variant of Omicron that caused a surge in infections across the UK in December and early January, and the newer strains BA.4 and BA.5 have been recently classified by UK Health Security Agency as “variants of concern”.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), a total of 989,800 people in private households in the UK are estimated to have had the virus in the week ending June 2, up from 953,900 the previous week.
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Speaking to Edinburgh Live, Professor Denis Kinane, a Scottish immunologist and Founding Scientist at Cignpost Diagnostics, explained if Scotland is staring down the barrel of another wave of Covid.
Professor Kinane, who attended Edinburgh University, pointed out that the latest data from ONS suggests that the prevalence of the virus in Scotland had risen from one in 50 to one in 40 people infected by the week ending June 2 - the highest rate among the UK nations.
The strains are not isolated to the UK, as the professor explained: "BA.4 and BA.5 were first detected in South Africa in January and February 2022, respectively, and since then have become the country's dominant variant. Portugal and Germany are also seeing cases rise and these are likely driven by these new variants.”
But this does not necessarily mean people should be overly concerned due to vaccines and natural immunity.
He said: "While a new Covid wave is looking likely for the UK, this doesn’t necessitate serious concern. The BA.4 and BA.5 wave, despite being able to overcome immunity to other strains should not translate to more deaths.
"A great deal of this is due to the benefit of our vaccination, booster and the prevalence of natural immunity in our community.
However he did issue a need for caution: "But this may not continue to provide protection as immunity naturally wanes and new variants could upset things. This underlines the need for constant low level surveillance.”
The Covid-19 symptoms we should look for
While these two new variants of the Omicron strain are spreading rapidly through the UK, the Scottish immunologist highlighted that the symptoms don't appear to be any different from the original Omicron strain.
He said: “So far, there has been no indication that BA.4 or BA.5 are associated with new symptoms or more severe disease. Therefore, the signs to look out for are the typical Omicron symptoms, which include fever, cough, loss of smell, fatigue and malaise. This is to be expected, given that the majority of mutations are similar to those found in other Omicron sub-variants.
"Symptoms will however continue to be closely monitored by the WHO and health bodies in countries where these sub-variants are being picked up.”
How the public can protect themselves
Professor Kinane pointed out that due to free testing ending last month, there has been a decrease in 'virus surveillance' and therefore opening a risk.
He said: “With cases rising in the UK and globally and new variants emerging, it is clear the virus is continuing to evolve. With free Covid testing having ended for most groups in Scotland and the rest of the UK, along with a reduction in border control measures, there has been a decrease in virus surveillance, which opens us up to additional risk.
"For the public to protect themselves whilst cases are increasing, vaccination is key. The Spring booster programme and further shots in the autumn should prevent much of the severe disease seen in earlier waves of Covid, as we are much better placed immunologically to counter this."
He add: "The Scottish Government has just announced that high-risk groups will be offered another Covid vaccine dose this autumn, so anybody eligible for this who is contacted by the NHS to make an appointment should do so. This is the best way of improving your immunity to the virus.
"Additionally, anyone experiencing symptoms of covid should take it upon themselves to purchase either a lateral flow or PCR test and should the result be positive, consider isolating to avoid passing the virus on to those around them.
"Immunocompromised individuals should take particular care during periods of increased infections, being careful to reduce social mixing, considering practicing social distancing and wearing a face mask in busy settings.”
