A new wave of coronavirus is looking likely in Scotland and the rest of the UK, a Scottish immunologist has warned.
The number of people estimated to have been infected with Covid has risen in the last week according to the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) infection study.
It has been estimated that 124,000 were infected with the virus in Scotland in the week ending June 2 - which equates to one in 40 people, or 2.36 per cent of the population.
This is a rise on an estimate of 105,900 in the previous week.
There has also been an uptick in the number of people in hospital with Covid in Scotland. The latest Public Health Scotland data shows that 749 were receiving treatment for the virus as of June 12 - a rise from 637 the week previous.
It is understood that the rise in case estimates is down the BA.4 and BA.5 strains of the virus - both of which were identified as ‘variants of concern’ by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
Professor Denis Kinane, an immunologist and founding scientist at Cignpost Diagnostics, claimed that the UK is staring down the barrel on a new of infection.
But the Omicron sub-variants are not isolated to the UK alone, as the professor explained to Edinburgh Live : “BA.4 and BA.5 were first detected in South Africa in January and February 2022, respectively, and since then have become the country's dominant variant. Portugal and Germany are also seeing cases rise and these are likely driven by these new variants."
But this does not necessarily mean people should be overly concerned due to vaccines and natural immunity.
He said: "While a new Covid wave is looking likely for the UK, this doesn’t necessitate serious concern. The BA.4 and BA.5 wave, despite being able to overcome immunity to other strains should not translate to more deaths.
"A great deal of this is due to the benefit of our vaccination, booster and the prevalence of natural immunity in our community.
However he did issue a need for caution: "But this may not continue to provide protection as immunity naturally wanes and new variants could upset things. This underlines the need for constant low level surveillance.”
The Covid-19 symptoms we should look for
While these two new variants of the Omicron strain are spreading rapidly through the UK, the Scottish immunologist highlighted that the symptoms don't appear to be any different from the original Omicron strain.
He said: “So far, there has been no indication that BA.4 or BA.5 are associated with new symptoms or more severe disease. Therefore, the signs to look out for are the typical Omicron symptoms, which include fever, cough, loss of smell, fatigue and malaise. This is to be expected, given that the majority of mutations are similar to those found in other Omicron sub-variants.
"Symptoms will however continue to be closely monitored by the WHO and health bodies in countries where these sub-variants are being picked up.”
How the public can protect themselves
Professor Kinane pointed out that due to free testing ending last month, there has been a decrease in 'virus surveillance' and therefore opening a risk.
He said: “With cases rising in the UK and globally and new variants emerging, it is clear the virus is continuing to evolve. With free Covid testing having ended for most groups in Scotland and the rest of the UK, along with a reduction in border control measures, there has been a decrease in virus surveillance, which opens us up to additional risk.
"For the public to protect themselves whilst cases are increasing, vaccination is key. The Spring booster programme and further shots in the autumn should prevent much of the severe disease seen in earlier waves of Covid, as we are much better placed immunologically to counter this."
He add: "The Scottish Government has just announced that high-risk groups will be offered another Covid vaccine dose this autumn, so anybody eligible for this who is contacted by the NHS to make an appointment should do so. This is the best way of improving your immunity to the virus.
"Additionally, anyone experiencing symptoms of covid should take it upon themselves to purchase either a lateral flow or PCR test and should the result be positive, consider isolating to avoid passing the virus on to those around them.
"Immunocompromised individuals should take particular care during periods of increased infections, being careful to reduce social mixing, considering practicing social distancing and wearing a face mask in busy settings.”
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