WASHINGTON — The largest population declines in California were below Los Angeles and near the Oregon border, but the shifts could mean changes in congressional districts in between, according to census data released Thursday.
The shifts come as California prepares to lose a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, shrinking to a delegation of 52, as a result in slower population growth counted by the census.
While the decision on how to draw the lines is in the hands of the nonpartisan redistricting commission, three California congressional districts are likely to be most closely watched, since they lost population from 2010 to 2020.
The largest decline was in District 40, represented by Democratic Rep. Lucille Royball-Allard in south Los Angeles, where the population fell by about 12,600 people.
District 1, represented by Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa in far Northern California, saw a population decline of about 950. District 46, represented by Democratic Rep. Lou Correa, in Orange County, saw a decline of 110.
Three districts added more than 100,000 people. District 45, in Orange County, added about 111,000 people; District 42, near Menifee, added 109,000 people; and District 9, which covers Stockton and parts of southern Sacramento County, added 101,000 people.
Redistricting, or the process of drawing boundaries around legislative areas, happens every 10 years based on results from the census.
Over the next several months, it will be up to the California Citizens Redistricting Commission to redraw the state’s political boundaries for congressional, state Senate and Assembly and State Board of Equalization districts in time for next year’s election cycle.
The 14-member commission is made up of five Democrats, five Republicans and four people not affiliated with either party.
The COVID-19 pandemic delayed the release of the data as well as changed the format it was shared in on Thursday. The formatting will further delay the commission’s ability to start drawing lines, it announced Thursday.
The commission will have public meetings and line drawing sessions to create drafts. More public input meetings will follow and final district maps will be sent to the secretary of state — likely in January, when the commission said its deadline would be.
While the Los Angeles area could be most directly impacted, redrawing the lines could mean small, but meaningful, shifts. After the commission drew its 2010 map, seven incumbents lost to members of their own party or candidates from the other party, according to an analysis by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a Virginia-based nonpartisan research firm.
“The commission injected some competitiveness into a state that had hardly any of it under a Democratic-drawn incumbent protection map in place for the 2000s,” it found.
“So one of the big questions about the commission is whether the commission will merely tweak the last decade’s map, given that it was already drawn by a commission as opposed to legislators, or whether the members will take a wrecking ball to the existing map, much like the commission did a decade ago,” the analysts asked.
The biggest change will be at the local level, said Douglas Johnson, president of the National Demographics Corporation, which aids local governments and commissions in various types of redistricting.
While congressional districts might be stretched out a bit, local governments could be more highly affected. Especially because 10 years ago, there were about 150 to 175 city and county governments affected by district elections and population shifts, Johnson said. This time, there are around 500.
“Little things that get washed out in the numbers can make a big impact at the local level,” Johnson said.
The average House district is expected to have about 760,000 people. Several districts fell short, the census data showed.
In those cases, the commission could redraw lines to include more people.
Two Republican districts could be affected by this: District 1, currently represented by Rep. LaMalfa, which has 701,955, and District 21, currently represented by Republican Rep. David Valadao, of Hanford, which has 712,137.
LaMalfa has represented his district since 2013. Valadao’s southern San Joaquin Valley district has toggled between a Democrat and Republican representative for the past few elections; he narrowly won his 2020 election.
The 2nd District, represented by Democrat Jared Huffman, of San Rafael, had 718,939. He has represented the district since 2013.
Other districts were more stable. The 10th District around Modesto — where Rep. Josh Harder, a Turlock Democrat, narrowly beat the Republican incumbent in 2018 and secured again in 2020 — had 767,919 people.
Among Republican districts, the 4th along the Sierra Nevada foothills represented by Rep. Tom McClintock, an Elk Grove Republican, since 2009, had 768,333. The 22nd in the San Joaquin Valley, represented by Republican Rep. Devin Nunes, had 787,793.
Nunes, of Tulare, defeated Democratic challenger Phil Arballo, who is running again in 2022, with 54.2% of the vote in 2020. In 2018, Nunes beat Democrat Andrew Janz with about 52.7% of the vote, Nunes’ closest race since taking office in 2003.
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