Polling stations have just closed in New Caledonia following provincial elections in a vote that will test the French Pacific territory's future after years of political deadlock and unrest.
The provincial elections are often described as the most important vote in New Caledonian politics because they determine not only who governs the territory, but also who represents each camp in negotiations over its future relationship with France.
Voters across the archipelago will elect members of three provincial assemblies and the local parliament, known as Congress.
The 54-member Congress will then choose a new government and play a central role in future negotiations with Paris over New Caledonia's political status.
Political balance
Currently, pro-France loyalists hold 13 seats, the leading pro-independence groups hold 25 and the remaining seats are divided between smaller parties.
The vote was originally due to take place in June 2024 but was postponed three times after riots in May that year left 14 people dead and caused more than €2 billion in damage.
Voting rules have changed since the last provincial elections in 2019. Around 10,500 additional people born in New Caledonia have been added to the electoral roll, taking the number of eligible voters to 192,584. About 27,000 residents remain excluded.
The elections are also the first territory-wide vote since three independence referendums in 2018, 2020 and 2021, all of which returned votes in favour of remaining part of France, although the 2021 poll was boycotted by the pro-independence FLNKS (Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front).
Long-standing divide
The result of Sunday's vote will help determine who leads the next round of talks on the territory's future.
The election is largely being fought between two rival camps: parties that want New Caledonia to remain part of France and those that ultimately seek independence.
Pro-France parties have united behind a single Loyalist list. While the main pro-independence coalition, FLNKS, remains a leading force, divisions within the movement mean several independence-supporting groups are contesting separately.
A growing number of smaller parties are also trying to offer an alternative to the traditional divide. Many focus on social issues, inequality and economic recovery rather than constitutional questions.
Their challenge is turning that message into seats, since any list must secure at least 5 percent of registered voters to enter the assemblies.
Future status
The roots of the current power struggle go back a long way.
France annexed New Caledonia in 1853 and the archipelago's modern semi-autonomous status was shaped by the Matignon Agreements in 1988 and the Nouméa Accord in 1998, which transferred greater powers to local institutions and set out a path towards self-determination.
Voting rights remain at the heart of ongoing divisions.
The Nouméa Accord created a restricted electoral roll for provincial elections, designed to protect the political influence of the Indigenous Kanak population, which now makes up around 40 percent of New Caledonia's 297,000 people.
In 2024, the French government sought to "unfreeze" the electoral roll, prompting widespread protests mainly from supporters of independence, who argued the move would weaken protections established under the Nouméa Accord.
The proposed change was suspended in June 2024 after President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament, but a partial unfreezing was approved in May this year.
An attempt to break the political deadlock between Paris and the archipelago's political groups came with the Bougival Agreement in 2025. The proposal offered greater autonomy while keeping New Caledonia within the French Republic and included measures aimed at supporting economic recovery.
Most importantly, it brought rival political camps back into the same discussion about the territory's future. But the compromise failed to secure lasting support and was rejected first by the FLNKS and later by French MPs.
Sunday's election will therefore serve as a new test of political strength before fresh negotiations between local leaders and Paris.
Struggling economy
Political uncertainty has been compounded by economic difficulties.
Two years after the unrest, the archipelago still bears the scars. Despite €130 million in state aid in state aid, many businesses have not recovered. Around 11,000 jobs have been lost after companies were damaged or destroyed.
Transport services remain disrupted in parts of the territory while health services are also under pressure, with some areas struggling to maintain staffing levels as health professionals return to mainland France.
The legacy of the 2024 unrest also hangs over the election.
France has maintained a strong security presence during the campaign. Investigations are continuing into several recent incidents, including vandalism and theft of telecommunications infrastructure.
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has also warned of possible foreign digital interference during the campaign, citing concerns raised by France's cyber-monitoring authorities.
