There was always a strong chance it would go like this. A bad Test, two bad innings, especially just before a long break with plenty of time to talk about it. Those discussions mounting as supporters fret. Pressure on a weak point, compounded by bad Tests and bad innings past. As Australia’s selectors mull over the fourth Ashes Test, they probably won’t drop David Warner from opening the batting – but it is a chance more genuine than at any other time in his career.
Even if selectors stay calm, much of the public is agitated. Combine Warner’s declining returns in general, a bad record in England specifically and his horror Ashes tour in 2019, and there is a statistical argument that he should not even have started the series, much less be in with a chance to finish it. Then add a personality that draws a lot of disapproval – such shortcomings can be outweighed by on-field success, but once success gets slimmer the scales tilt fast.
So, a lot of people went into the current Ashes ready for Warner to fail. Expecting it, even hoping for it. They feel vindicated by the third Test at Headingley: 10 balls in the match, caught twice at slip from rearing Stuart Broad deliveries, a 2019 facsimile. Simple, right?
Like a lot of things, you can arrange the data to support your view. Averages are a usefully blunt instrument, like Warner’s current 25.33 on English soil. With Warner on his fourth tour, Malcolm Knox in the Sydney Morning Herald characterised the sequence as “10 years of hard evidence of Warner’s inability to score runs in England”.
Except that just isn’t true. On his first foray in 2013, having missed half the tour suspended, Warner made 41 in Manchester as soon as he returned to the top of the order, then 71 in Durham, taking Australia to 168 for two in a run chase that was subsequently blown up by the middle order.
On the 2015 trip, Warner made 38 and 83 at Lord’s, then 85 at the Oval, including two century opening partnerships, substantially setting up Australia’s two wins. His 52 in Cardiff, 77 in Birmingham and 67 in Nottingham were second‑innings scores with Australia miles behind, but still showed mental strength and technical aptitude to make scores in such conditions.
So really, it is the dramatic crash of Warner’s third tour that has been projected across the rest. In terms of perception he is still paying for the failures of 2019. And, of course, the player at 36 is not the same as the player a decade earlier. It is no surprise that performances have diminished. He is no longer a dominant slayer of hundreds. The point of the current trip was whether Warner would still be better placed than others to do a job at the top of the order.
Opening the batting in England is hard work. The average opening partnership over the past 10 years is 29. Primarily the task is to get through the difficult opening exchanges, shielding the middle order for long enough that conditions ease. Going on to a bigger score yourself is a bonus.
So far, Warner has delivered. Starting his tour in the World Test Championship final, India sent in Australia on morning one under heavy cloud. Mohammed Shami and Mohammed Siraj bowled excellent spells. Warner got through them both, and most of the first session, taking the score to 71. He made 43. Steve Smith came in next and made a hundred.
At Lord’s it was the same, sent in by England: 96 runs on the board, into the 30th over, his contribution worth 66. What do you know: next in, Smith, hundred. Setting up a target in the second innings, Warner batted into the 25th over in a partnership worth 63. In between those matches was Edgbaston where, after a low score first up, Warner went at the bowling second time around and importantly helped bite 61 out of the run chase.
These are not the headline successes for people reading scorecards instead of watching matches, where anything short of a century is a failure. In matches where 250 is a challenging chase on the final day, those are not the increments we’re dealing in. It’s the same simplistic mentality that says Mitchell Marsh making a century at No 6 means that he should be thrown up to open the batting a week later. There are specific roles in cricket for a reason.
So sure, Warner has never made a hundred in England, and has a worse record away than at home. Most players do. The greats who overcome that are great for a reason. Joe Root has never made a hundred in Australia, but he will be on the next trip if he wants to be. He can still offer something to his team. Perhaps Warner fails again in Manchester, reaches the end of the road then. He is still in a team that go into that contest 2-1 up, and he has still played his part in getting there.
