Nevada Football: How the Wolf Pack Can Win: How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
Nevada hosts New Mexico as the Wolf Pack looks for their second straight win
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Here is How Nevada Can Defeat the Lobos
WEEK 9: Nevada Wolf Pack (1-6 , 1-2 MW) vs New Mexico (3-4, 1-2 MW)
WHEN: Saturday, October 28st – 7:30pm PT/8:30pm MT
TV: CBS Sports Network
STREAM: FuboTV — Get a free trial
RADIO: Nevada is on 105.7 KOZZ in Reno and New Mexico is on 770 AM/96.3 FM
SERIES RECORD: Nevada leads the all time series 5-3-1. The last meeting was in 2020 in Las Vegas where Nevada won 27-20.
WEBSITES: NevadaWolfPack.com, the official Nevada athletics website | GoLobos.com, the official New Mexico athletics website
GAME NOTES: Nevada | New Mexico
ODDS: Nevada (-1)
SP+ PROJECTION: New Mexico by 3.0
FEI PROJECTION: Nevada by 5.6
The Nevada Wolf Pack return to action on Saturday night as they take on the New Mexico Lobos in Reno.
Nevada returns to action after winning their first game in over 400 days as they defeated San Diego State 6-0 last week. The Wolf Pack offense was not good ( to put it kindly) but the defense played great. Nevada is looking to build on that performance and turn it into a winning streak.
The Wolf Pack are facing a New Mexico team that is 3-4 and snapped a long losing streak of their own last week. Their losing streak was a 14 game conference losing streak as they defeated Hawaii 42-21. The Lobos feature one of the best rushing attacks in the conference as they are averaging 179.71 rushing yards per game. The Lobos have a talented QB in Dylan Hopkins who is one of the better quarterbacks in the Mountain West this season.
The Lobos and the Wolf Pack are two teams that have snapped long losing streaks and are looking to extend their winning streaks. Can the Wolf Pack continue to play stellar defense while finding their offensive groove? Can the Wolf Pack extend their winning streak to two games?
Here are my ways on how Nevada can win against New Mexico
Finishing drives on offense with touchdowns
Last week against San Diego State, the Wolf Pack had four trips to the red zone. In those four trips, Nevada scored only two field goals and missed two field goals. The Wolf Pack had many chances to extend their lead but failed to do so.
Nevada’s offense must be able to move the ball and score touchdowns when in the red zone. The Wolf Pack offense is still struggling (we will get to one of those issues troubling their offensive line in the next key) so they need to score as many points as possible when they get the chance. And those points have to be touchdowns.
Nevada QB Brendon Lewis has had moments where he has done a good job of getting the offense into the red zone. For Nevada to win on Saturday night, Lewis and the Wolf Pack offense must finish drives with touchdowns.
Limit Penalties
The Wolf Pack committed 10 penalties for 58 yards in their win over San Diego State last week. Most of those penalties were committed by the Nevada offensive line for several false starts. And in two of Nevada’s last three games, they have committed 10 or more penalties.
The number of penalties committed by Nevada are just bad and Wolf Pack head coach Ken Wilson acknowledges this and says it must be fixed. “Obviously we have to cut those down,” Wilson said this week.
Wilson also said about the penalties is that “ We’ve got to cut those down to finish drives, get us out of trouble, control the ball so we don’t have the short fields and stuff that the defense had to deal with a few times in that game”:
If Nevada defeats New Mexico on Saturday night, it will be because they limited those costly penalties on both sides of the ball. Especially on offense where those penalties crushed potential scoring drives. Limiting the penalties along with scoring points, will give Nevada a good chance to win.
Continued improvement on defense
Through the first six games of the season, the Nevada defense has been very charitable to opposing offenses. By charitable, I mean that Nevada’s defense was porous against opposing offenses. The Wolf Pack defense gave up 350 yards or more in their first five games of the season. Nevada’s defense was just a disaster when it came to defending offenses in the fist half of the season.
But Nevada’s defense played their best game of the season last week at San Diego against the Aztecs. Sure, the Aztec offense has been dreadful outside of Jalen Mayden but Nevada still had to show up and play and they played brilliantly. The Wolf Pack defense held the Aztec offense to zero points and only 204 yards of total offense.
Nevada’s defense will get a challenge this week as they face a New Mexico offense that has talent at the skills positions. Lobos QB Dylan Hopkins is fifth in the Mountain West in passing with 1,367 yards and Hopkins has thrown 10 touchdowns and only four interceptions. The Lobos have four receivers on their team that have caught at least 10 passes this season.
The Lobos have a talented running back in Jacory Croskey-Merritt who leads the Lobos in rushing with 545 rushing yards while scoring 11 touchdowns (tied for third among Mountain West running backs). The Lobos possess an offense that can display good balance and that will present a challenge that Nevada must handle.
Nevada won last week because of their drastic improvement on defense. For Nevada to win their second straight game, their defense will need to continue that improvement against a good Lobos offense.
Prediction
Nevada 17 New Mexico 14
Maybe, just maybe Nevada has turned the corner under Ken Wilson’s guidance. Nevada won for the first time in more than a year using a stifling defense and an offense that made no mistakes against SDSU.
The Wolf Pack’s next opponent, New Mexico, presents a tougher challenge as they have a much better offense than the Aztecs.
Nevada must continue their strong defensive play and find a way to be consistent on offense and score touchdowns. The Wolf Pack are still a work in progress on both sides of the ball but they are improving. Nevada will ride an improving defense and an offense that continues to not make a big mistake into their second win in a row this week.
