Australia will lose hundreds of thousands of jobs, mostly in a handful of regional communities, if it fails to meet the needs of emissions-busting trading partners, a report warns.
The independent Centre for Policy Development on Monday released detailed modelling of each local government area on the impact of locked-in and likely commitments for net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The report estimates up to 300,000 jobs and over $150 billion in output would be in jeopardy if energy exporter Australia faced the predicted 2050 drop in demand for fossil fuels today.
"In the short term, the reality is that demand for Australia's coal and gas exports is increasing, not falling," a spokeswoman for Energy Minister Angus Taylor told AAP.
Government modelling estimates a net gain of just 62,000 new regional jobs in mining and heavy industry by 2050 under current plans for new technology such as clean hydrogen, ammonia and steel.
But researchers Toby Phillips and Warwick Smith say that falls short and the job losses will be painful, particularly in coal-rich east coast communities, without more targeted planning for the transition.
Seven local government areas out of 537 would have more than 20 per cent of their workforce affected.
"It will not crash the whole economy, but there are a handful of local government areas, half a dozen or so, which will be profoundly affected," Mr Smith said.
"This is where we must focus."
The report found the most affected communities would be Isaac and Central Highlands in Queensland's Bowen Basin, and Singleton in the NSW Upper Hunter region in NSW, and the Pilbara in Western Australia without a more detailed plan.
"Shutting down a mine does not just affect the miners, it also affects the local pub and the retail stores in the nearest towns," the report said.
Isaac is the nation's most exposed community with the greatest proportion of workers in jobs that are dependent on world demand for coal.
About two-thirds of the Bowen Basin's coal is coking coal, which will make the demand decline less abrupt than it will be in the Hunter Valley, but that does little for the longer-term outcomes.
The port of Newcastle services more than 40 coal mines across the broader Hunter Region and is the world's largest coal export port with over 150 million tonnes exported each year.
Under all scenarios modelling in the report, demand for coal will plunge.
Demand for gas fares differently under the three scenarios, continuing to rise over the next decade if used as a "transition fuel".
Under scenarios of faster decarbonisation by our trading partners, Ashburton in Western Australia's Pilbara region is also affected because of its gas exports.
Based on more certainty - at least globally - on the agreed pace of cutting emissions, the report recommends a plan for new jobs in key regions to replace those lost in fossil fuel industries.
The report found "enormous opportunities" for regional Australia, particularly in aluminium, ammonia and steel produced with renewable energy.
New supply chains for making batteries and hydrogen and service industries around new energy are also job creators.
The Latrobe Valley in Victoria does not feature despite its high concentration of coal mines and power plants, because of the transitions that have already taken place for some workers.
Also, much of the region's coal is used in Australia and the report only models international exposure.
The federal government says plans to invest $21 billion in low emissions technologies by 2030 will unlock at least $80 billion of investment over the decade.
