The government's planning unit has downgraded its economic growth forecast to 2.7-3.7% for this year from 3-4% estimated in November last year, largely attributed to the global slowdown and declining exports.
According to Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), the export value of goods in US dollar terms is anticipated to decrease by 1.6% this year, compared with 5.5% growth in 2022, a downward revision from 1% growth in the November estimate.
He attributed the export revision to an assumption of lower export prices and a dip in export volume. Export volume is expected to decline by 0.6% compared with 1% growth in the previous estimate.
Mr Danucha said export services are expected to notably increase as the number of foreign visitors and revenue from them have rebounded faster than previously projected, based on China reopening quicker than predicted.
For the baseline assumption, revenue from inbound tourists in 2023 is expected to tally 1.31 trillion baht compared with 580 billion baht in 2022.
He said key support factors for this year's growth include the recovery of the tourism sector, the expansion of both private and public investment, the continued increase in private consumption and favourable gains for the agricultural sector.
The agency expects the number of foreign tourist arrivals to reach 28.5 million this year, up from the 23.5 million projected earlier and 11.2 million last year.
"The global economy has slowed faster than expected. We expect the tourism sector will become the key driver of the domestic economy this year," said Mr Danucha.
He urged the government to rev up approved private investment projects that obtained investment promotion certificates in 2020-22, pushing them to start their actual outlays, especially in targeted industries, to create a favourable economic climate.
Other tactics include speeding up entry to new markets and free trade agreement negotiations with potential partners such as the Thai-EU talks.
Mr Danucha said he has not observed any negative factors that would result in the country's economic contraction in the first quarter, causing a potential technical recession.
He said the agency pledges to keep a close watch on the global economic slowdown, financial market volatility, rising domestic household debt, the impact of interest rate hikes on the business sector, the general election and the new administration's policies to stimulate the economy.
In a related development, the NESDC yesterday reported the economy in the fourth quarter of 2022 expanded by 1.4% year-on-year, decelerating from growth of 4.6% in the previous quarter.
After seasonal adjustment, the economy decreased by 1.5% from the third quarter.
The decline in growth was attributed to a sharp contraction of exports, which fell by 7.5% year-on-year, compared with 6.7% growth in the third quarter, 9.6% expansion in the second quarter and 14.2% in the first quarter.
For 2022, the economy expanded by 2.6%, less than the NESDC projection of 3.2%. The growth was an increase from the 1.5% expansion posted in 2021.
