Brexit has inflicted a hit of nearly one-third on the value of Britain’s trade with Europe, with many smaller exporters giving up because of the new red tape, according to researchers.
The value of UK goods exports to the European Union sank by 27% and imported goods by 32% between 2021 and 2023, after the Brexit trade deal was signed, compared with no change if the divorce had never happened, a report by Aston Business School said.
Jun Du, Professor of Economics at Aston, told BBC Radio 4 Today’s programme that on top of low productivity, the research “will have deep implication for the UK economy as a whole” even if services takes the lion’s share of the economy as a whole.
Brexiteers have extolled the benefits of trade agreements elsewhere including in the Asia-Pacific, but Prof Du stressed: “In this case for exports, the UK has not really been successful in redirecting trade to the rest of the world.”
Since the signing of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement by Boris Johnson’s Conservative government at the end of 2020, there are 1,645 fewer types of British products exported to every EU country, according to a team of researchers at Aston.
They wrote: “The study highlights that the negative impacts of the TCA have intensified over time, with 2023 showing more pronounced trade declines than previous years.
“This suggests that the transition in UK-EU trade relations post-Brexit is not merely a short-term disruption but reflects deeper structural changes likely to persist.”
New non-tariff barriers have hit exports of agrifood, textile and material-based manufacturing products particularly hard, and the UK-EU supply chain for consumer and intermediate goods has been badly disrupted, the report said.
Mary Quicke, who runs a small cheese maker in Devon, said she used to supply four customers directly in the EU and others indirectly.
“We now no longer supply those companies direct. We had to give them away to somebody else,” she said on Today.
“We find it really, really difficult to deal with all the regulatory burdens. We just don't have the people to do the paperwork..”
Opinion polls show a majority of Britons now back rejoining the EU. But the new Labour government insists that while it intends to secure a better trade deal when the TCA comes up for review in 2026, re-entry to the single market is off the table.
