AROUND half of voters who switched from backing the SNP to supporting Labour at the election are in favour of Scottish independence, a new report has found.
Labour Together’s post-election analysis found that 46% of those who went from the SNP to Labour in July are pro-Yes.
The report, which was based on polls and focus groups conducted after the election, found that the SNP’s vote had been reduced to a “loyalist, pro-independence core” who identified Scottish independence remained in the top three most important issues facing the country.
They were overwhelmingly in favour of independence at 93%, up from 78% at the last election.
Labour took more votes from the Tories than they did the SNP in Scotland, the research found. Of those who backed Labour earlier this year, 24% had voted Conservative in 2019 while 20% had previously backed the SNP.
The report said: “It was former SNP voters who mattered most to Labour’s victory, because – as in England and Wales – they subtracted a vote from the SNP total and added one to Labour’s.”
While a plurality of SNP to Labour switchers were pro-independence another 19% were undecided on the constitutional question, the research found.
The report said: “These voters were much less likely to view independence as one of the most important issues: 5% for former SNP voters and 8% for former Conservative voters.
“Middle Scotland emerged: a centre ground who are less invested in Scottish independence and voted Labour because it focussed on what voters said their top priorities were.
“Change was most important to SNP to Labour switchers, with 50% choosing it as one of their biggest reasons for voting.”
Those who abandoned the SNP also cited “competence” and “corruption”, on 27% and 20%, respectively as reasons for changing their vote.
The report also found evidence of anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland, with former Tory voters lending their support to Labour while “left-of-centre SNP voters were motivated because they wanted change and because they were sick of both the Conservatives and SNP”.
Labour Together, a centre-right think tank with enormous influence over the party leadership, strikes a cautious note throughout the report, noting how low Labour’s support was in the popular vote and delineating the threats the party’s fragile coalition faces from all sides.
The report notes that falling trust in politics, declining turn out and the fragmentation of party allegiances point to widespread “frustration” with politics in general throughout the UK.
The report adds: “Trends are not destiny. They can be reversed. But it is these trends that underpin the 2024 election and will shape the next government.”
On the party’s defeat in four English seats by pro-Gaza independents, the report said: “There was a strong correlation between decline in Labour’s vote share and the proportion of Muslims in a constituency.
“This cost Labour four seats to independents. In the 17 seats where independents came second, Labour holds a lower average majority than it does where the Conservatives are second place.
“The depth of feeling about the situation in some, particularly Muslim, communities was profound."
Labour also lost Islington North to former leader Jeremy Corbyn (above), who stood against his former party as an independent.
But the report said that Labour’s “biggest threats still come on its right”, with the Tories still their number one challenger.
On average, Labour has much lower majorities in places where the Tories came second place, compared with constituencies where the Greens came second, the report found.
In its conclusion, the report bears out previous suggestions that it and its senior friends in government see all their actions in the context of the next Westminster election in 2029.
Keir Starmer (below) has already spoken of his desire to oversee a “decade of national renewal”, which would require at least two terms as Prime Minister.
The report said: “Winning is unlikely to be the hardest part. People voted for change. It is clear from this review what change is not: bluntly, anything that isn’t high on the list of voters’ priorities. Most of all Labour must prove they are what voters wanted. Competent, moderate government which makes progress on their priorities.
“Voters see political attention as zero sum. They are right to do so. Political focus is precious. Labour will either continue applying that focus on voters’ priorities, or it will fail. This is Labour’s task. To prioritise, plan and communicate its progress, in tangible terms that people can understand.
“Britain’s problems are decades in the making and it will take multiple parliamentary terms to truly address them.”
Responding to the report, SNP MSP Rona Mackay said: “True to form, Labour is taking the people of Scotland for granted – after only a few months in government, Labour has broken promise after promise and completely betrayed every voter who put their trust in them.
“Whether it's robbing pensioners of their Winter Fuel Payments or pushing thousands of Scottish children into poverty with their two-child benefit cap and bedroom tax, Scottish Labour have failed people across Scotland.
“While Labour line their pockets with freebies to improve their own lives, the SNP will take the action it can to improve the lives of people in Scotland and protect them from Labour’s austerity agenda."
