What are you most looking forward to, on or off the court?
Who’s next in women’s hoops. Last year’s national title game between LSU and Iowa was watched by a record 9.9m people, another sign for the surging popularity of women’s basketball. The social media era has helped popularize talents like LSU’s Angel Reese and Iowa’s Caitlin Clark, whose play would have never made it into nightly highlight packages of years past. This increased visibility has grown several bonafide stars like Breanna Stewart, A’Ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum and Sabrina Ionescu over the past decade. I’m just looking forward to who is next. GB
A deeper field of women’s title contenders than ever. For a long time there the conversation over schools that could actually cut down the nets in April started and ended with UConn and Tennessee. These days? No fewer than 13 teams have title odds of 25/1 or better – an unthinkable level of parity even a generation ago that will only make for a better product. BAG
Will the upsets on the men’s side continue or will the blue-bloods regain their dominant ways? In last year’s March Madness tournament we saw two 1 seeds (Purdue and Kansas) fail to survive the opening weekend and no top-three seeds advance to the Final Four. Is the transfer portal giving mid-majors a chance to continue to play with and upset the big boys? Or will it be a familiar face like Kansas (the preseason No 1) or Duke (preseason No 2) to cut down the nets in Glendale? NL
The surprise package of the season will be …
Cal men. The Golden Bears were laughably bad in 2022-23, winning three games and ranking dead last out of 363 teams in points scored per game. The athletic department responded by hiring a new head coach in Mark Madsen, once a popular star at rival Stanford and nine-year NBA veteran remembered by Lakers fans for his dance moves and perfect Spanish. Madsen aggressively worked the transfer portal and overhauled the roster into one that should push the Bears to the middle of the Pac-12 standings. The Bears might not make the NCAA tournament, but expect them to stage one or two major upsets one year after being a total laughingstock. GB
New Mexico men. Richard Pitino’s Lobos, who play their home games in one of America’s most storied gyms, return an elite backcourt in Jamal Mashburn Jr and Jaelen House while adding a trio of veteran transfers Nelly Junior Joseph (Iona), Jemarl Baker (Fresno State) and Mustapha Amzil (Dayton). Tabbed for third place behind San Diego State and Boise State in a tough Mountain West, this is a group capable of following the Aztecs’ Final Four run if the defense managees to jell. BAG
Villanova men. The Wildcats struggled last year as they made the transition from legendary coach Jay Wright to 38-year-old Kyle Neptune. Injuries played a big part in the Wildcats’ disappointing 17-17 season that saw them fail to make the NCAA tournament for the first ttime since 2012. Justin Moore and Eric Dixon return to the Main Line with the addition of three transfers who should make an immediate impact. Look for the Wildcats to get back to their winning ways in March. NL
Which team in either preseason top 10 will struggle?
Florida Atlantic men. After their dark-horse run to the Final Four last year, the Owls will be a popular pick to regress this season. It’s not the team that is the problem – coach Dusty May’s squad is equipped to win 30 games again – but the structure of college basketball. If FAU doesn’t win close to 30 games and doesn’t win the Conference USA tournament, then the selection committee might pass. When a team doesn’t play in a power conference, the margin for error is so thin that even one bad game (or one bad half) can end dreams of reaching in the NCAA tournament. GB
South Carolina women. Dawn Staley has managed the impossible feat of toppling Geno Auriemma as women’s college basketball’s Big Boss and her ability to recruit will keep the Gamecocks at or near the top of the sport as long as she’s there. But a team with five new starters, even if one of them is the physically dominant Kamilla Cardoso, stands to encounter some early growing pains. BAG
Creighton men. The Bluejays enter the season ranked No 8 in the AP men’s poll which is the highest preseason ranking in school history. While the Bluejays have pieces to make another tournament run, they also play a tough non-league schedule and compete in the ultra-competitive Big East. Losing star guard Ryan Nembhard (who transferred to Gonzaga) hurts and their backcourt play will consist of mostly unproven players. NL
The men’s national player of the year will be …
Hunter Dickinson, Kansas. The mammoth 7ft2in center who models his game off of Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokić and Sacramento Kings center Domantas Sabonis will edge last year’s winner, Zach Edey from Purdue. Even at his size, Dickinson is one of the most creative scorers and passers in college basketball. GB
Zach Edey, Purdue. The 7ft 4in center is one of five starters returning to a Boilermakers squad that won the Big Ten regular-season and conference tournament championships and earned a No 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. BAG
Hunter Dickinson, Kansas. The Jayhawks boast the most talented roster in the country and the man in the middle established himself as an All-American at Michigan before transferring. Look for Dickinson to fill the stat sheet for the Jayhawks and, as the saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats. If Kansas finishe the season where they start they should also have the National Player of the Year. NL
The women’s national player of the year will be …
Paige Bueckers, UConn: It’s Caitlin Clark’s award to lose, but Bueckers was once projected to be the kind of star that Clark has become. After averaging 20 points and 5.8 assists per game as a freshman in 2019-20, Bueckers’ career has been marred by knee and ankle injuries. She is reportedly fully healthy for the upcoming season, meaning UConn might return to its usual dominance. GB
Caitlin Clark, Iowa. There’s the Hawkeyes’ sensational playmaker can’t do with a basketball. We’re going to miss her when she’s gone. BAG
Caitlin Clark, Iowa. The senior should once again terrorize defenses with her skillset, iq and competitiveness. Most likely her last season in a college uniform, look for Clark to lead the Hawkeyes to another deep tournament run. NL
The hottest NBA prospect is …
Isaiah Collier, USC. Scouts already consider the freshman point guard an NBA-level passer, strong enough to reliably score close to the basket and smart enough to neutralize opposing defenses. He may run into turnover problems if he tries to get too clever with his passing, but his court vision and creativity will wow fans who love dynamic point guard play. GB
Aday Mara, UCLA. The 18-year-old from Zaragoza, who is listed at 7ft 3in and 240lbs with a 7ft 7in wingspan, is an extraordinary passer with an educated offensive repertoire that belies his age. Already slotted as a lottery pick in the 2024 NBA draft, he could wind up one of the first players off the board if he develops defensively. BAG
Tyrese Proctor, Duke. The Sydney native is a 6ft5in point guard who checks a lot of boxes. He is a facilitator who has great court vision and athleticism. NBA teams will love his ability to score or pass coming off the ball screen. NL
The hottest WNBA prospect is …
Caitlin Clark, Iowa: Clark meteoric’s rise last season means she’ll face ample pressure in this campaign, but there is little doubt that she will be picked first overall in next year’s WNBA draft if she declares. Last season, she averaged 27.8 points, 7.1 and 8.6 rebounds per game and captivated the nation with her shooting range, ball-handling finesse and exceptional passing. GB
Cameron Brink, Stanford. Clark is your automatic No 1 pick if she turns pro instead of returning to Iowa for a fifth year. UConn’s Paige Buecker is next in line, but I suspect that she’ll stay in school as well. That leaves Brink, a versatile 6ft 4in power forward, as the presumptive top pick in April’s draft. BAG
Caitlin Clark, Iowa. The headline-grabbing Hawkeye has the skillset and confidence to step into the WNBA and shine right away. She is a threat to score from all 3three levels and is elite playing in space. She is an underrated passer and at the pro level look for her to do a little bit of everything. NL
What rule change would improve the game?
Cut back on video reviews. It’s not a specific rule change, but the increased reliance on video replays for so many different calls makes the final minutes of close games nearly unwatchable. Here is hoping that officials go to the monitor only when it is a major inflection point in a close game. Otherwise, let them play! Basketball is most fun when the game is going end to end, not when it’s constantly disrupted by stoppages in play. GB
Adopt Fiba’s goaltending rules, which prohibit any player from touching a shot on the way down but allow either the offense or defense to play the ball once it hits the rim. BAG
Ability to advance the ball to halfcourt on a time-out. Who doesn’t love late game drama? Would love to see the college game adapt the NBA rules which would most likely increase teams odds of getting off a quality late game shot. NL
One bold prediction
John Calipari will coach his final season at Kentucky. The legendary Wildcats coach is returning to his familiar formula of using talented freshmen to anchor his team. The best ones are 6ft8in guard Justin Edwards, who is being touted as potential No 1 overall pick in next year’s NBA draft, and Dajuan Wagner Jr. whose dad starred for Calipari at Memphis. The question is whether the 64-year-old Calipari can get his team to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament – something he has not done since 2019 – and whether the notoriously demanding Kentucky fan base will tolerate anything less. Even if he does, how much longer does the Hall of Famer want to coach? GB
A No 15 or No 16 seed wins again. It took more than three decades until a No 16 seed finally beat a No 1 in the NCAA tournament. Now it’s happened twice in five years, after Fairleigh Dickinson stunned Purdue in March to join UMBC in the record books. No 15s are winning at an even higher clip. One working theory: the transfer portal is redistributing talent (and experience) to mid- and low-major schools while the big boys continue to rely on one-and-done players, narrowing the gap between the haves and have-nots. Whatever the reason, don’t be surprised when Weber State or UNC Asheville leaves your bracket in tatters. BAG
Florida Atlantic return to the Final Four. The Owls were the Cinderella story of last year’s NCAA tournament as they marched all the way to the Final Four; if it wasn’t for Lamont Butler’s walk-off buzzer-beater, they would have played in the championship game. The Owls return all five starters from last year’s team and they are embracing the expectations. Dusty May has built a culture where player development and team chemistry is at the forefront of everything they do. They haven’t lost or added kids to the transfer portal nearly as much as most programs and in an age where most teams have great turnover from year to year, their continuity should provide an advantage on the competition. NL
Men’s national champion
Arizona: After suffering a stunning upset against Princeton in last year’s NCAA tournament, the Wildcats will purge the memory by winning its first national title since 1997. Star center Oumar Ballo, who averaged 14 points per game and shot 65% from the field last year, returns and is joined by star North Carolina transfer Caleb Love, who helped lead the Tar Heels to the national title game two seasons ago. Much like Virginia won the title the year after becoming the first No 1 seed to lose to a No 16 seed, Arizona will shed its reputation as a team that wilts in March. GB
Duke. Coach K successor Jon Scheyer welcomes a freshman class teeming with five-star prospects to a group of returning players that includes Kyle Filipowski, a 7ft sophomore who should challenge for national player of the year honors. The Blue Devils have as many as four players – Filipowski, Tyrese Proctor, Jared McCain and Mark Mitchell – projected for the first round of next year’s NBA draft. But it’s Duke’s unparalleled backcourt depth, headlined by Proctor and senior point guard and co-captain Jeremy Roach, that make them among the safest bets for a lengthy tournament run. BAG
Kansas. The Jayhawks have a roster loaded with superior talent and experience. Dajuan Harris is a point guard general who knows exactly what his hall of fame coach needs from him to run the team. The addition of the skilled Hunter Dickinson will make the Jayhawks extremely versatile on the offensive end. Look for Self to get his third national championship win as the Jayhawks coach. NL
Women’s national champion
LSU: The Tigers will become the first repeat champions since Connecticut won four straight titles between 2013 through 2016. Star guard Angel Reese is back and the Tigers added top-ranked transfer Hailey Van Lith, who averaged 19.7 points per game in her final season at Louisville. Much like last season, LSU will look like a super team that can beat you anywhere on the floor. GB
LSU. Kim Mulkey’s Tigers haven’t lost a step. If anything, they’ve gotten even deeper and more formidable with the addition of transfer Hailey Van Lith. BAG
Connecticut. While LSU look prime to repeat, I am going to pick UConn here. Geno Auriemma gets his star Paige Bueckers back after missing the entirely of last season with an injury. We didn’t get to see Ice Brady last year either, who was one of the highest ranked recruits out of high school. Give Geno a roster of hungry and humble kids and we know how it usually ends up. Huskies cut down the nets in March. NL
