RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina lawmakers have now passed new political districts for themselves and the state's 14 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives — but it's not the final decision, since the court system will still have a say in the matter next week.
Earlier this month the North Carolina Supreme Court ruled that the previous maps, drawn in 2021 and intended to be used from 2022 through 2030, violated the state constitution.
Lawmakers faced a Friday deadline to submit proposed replacement maps to a trial court for review, and they took the final votes just before 7 p.m. Thursday on their redraws for the U.S. House, N.C. House and N.C. Senate. The state House map passed nearly unanimously, but the state Senate map was more controversial, passing along party lines.
The congressional map proved controversial, too. It's either a huge departure from the previous unconstitutional map — or is basically the same result, just repackaged — depending on who is describing it.
"We believe this map is highly politically competitive" and "will reflect the will of the people," said Republican Sen. Warren Daniel, a top redistricting leader from Morganton.
But while there are more swing districts, Democratic Rep. Pricey Harrison said those competitive seats are expected to all, or at least mostly, still lean Republican.
"Using 2020 statistics it would likely be a 9-5 map, but likely 10-4 in 2022," she said. "That's the same map, the 10-4 split, that got struck down as a partisan gerrymander."
The map would have six safe Republican seats, four safe Democratic seats and four tossup districts, Daniel said. That's a substantial increase in competitiveness from the map that was just ruled unconstitutional, which had 10 safe Republican seats, three safe Democratic seats and just one tossup district.
Furthermore, Daniel said, the four competitive districts in the draft map would be among the most competitive districts anywhere in the country, using analysis of districts elsewhere by national redistricting expert Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.
The bottom line is that, just as in the map deemed unconstitutional, Republicans would still have a chance at winning 10 of the 14 seats. But unlike the unconstitutional map, Democrats would also have a chance at winning a majority of the seats if they won a majority of the statewide votes. They could win as many as eight of the 14.
The four competitive seats in the map include some mid-sized cities, metropolitan suburbs and rural farmland — often combined in the same district.
Three of the four competitive seats would've been won by Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in the 2020 election, data underlying the maps shows. Based on a combination of those and other recent election results, those three districts would be expected to be Republican-leaning, but narrowly. The fourth tossup seat would be rated as narrowly Democratic-leaning by the same metrics.
— District 6: Combining about 80% of Greensboro with some more rural areas and fast-growing suburban communities — in the Triad and Triangle — this district would lean slightly right. It includes all or parts of Guilford, Alamance, Rockingham, Randolph, Lee, Chatham and Harnett counties.
— District 7: Stretching from Fayetteville to Wilmington and picking up some rural communities in between, Democrat Joe Biden would've won this district by a narrow 0.3% in 2020 — but it's currently represented by a Republican, Rep. David Rouzer. It includes all of Cumberland, Bladen, Brunswick and New Hanover counties and part of Columbus County.
— District 13: Covering the wealthy Wake County towns of Morrisville and Cary, it would swing south and east through Fuquay-Varina and then continue into hog farming country. This district would lean slightly right and in addition to western Wake County also includes all or part of Johnston, Sampson, Duplin and Wayne counties.
— District 14: Centered around Gastonia, this district would stretch west to Shelby and Forest City, and east into Mecklenburg County and the Charlotte suburbs, where nearly half of this proposed district's population lives. It would lean slightly right and in addition to part of Mecklenburg it includes all or part of Gaston, Cleveland and Rutherford counties.
