Midway through the first round of the NBA playoffs, each series has begun to take shape. Some as expected, some not so much. In certain cases, specific teams have left us with more questions than answers.
On one hand, LeBron James has the Lakers out to a dominant start to the postseason, all without Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves. Los Angeles has a 3–0 lead on Houston, which has been without Kevin Durant for two games already. The Hawks have been a pleasant surprise, currently with a 2–1 lead on the Knicks, as Atlanta looks to prove it’s ready to contend immediately in the post-Trae Young era.
For the not-so-good starts, the Nuggets are in serious trouble against the Timberwolves after Denver was completely dominated in Game 3 to fall behind 2–1 in the series. The 76ers have put up a stronger fight than expected against the Celtics, but you have to wonder whether Tyrese Maxey has enough support to help Philadelphia punch back without Joel Embiid. And Victor Wembanyama’s concussion has thrown a big wrench into the Spurs-Trail Blazers series.
As the first round chugs along, here’s the biggest question remaining for each series, updated as each Game 3 is finished:
Thunder-Suns: Who in the West can stand up to the Thunder?
Oklahoma City’s title defense is off to a perfect start. The Thunder have been dominant against the Suns, jumping out to a 3–0 series lead with the closest contest of the series so far being Saturday’s 12-point win in Phoenix.
For this series, the main question remaining is if we are looking at a sweep, or a gentleman’s sweep, but for the rest of the West a bigger question looms—just who can potentially hang with the Thunder?
The Spurs have been OKC’s kryptonite all season, winning four of the five head-to-head matchups between the top two teams in the West, but San Antonio has an extreme lack of postseason experience, and while they might be able to survive a first-round series against the Trail Blazers with minimal playoff reps, going up against the reigning champions will be a different ask entirely.
Elsewhere, it’s a mixed bag. Whichever team survives between the Nuggets and Wolves will be a strong contender in the West, but are also likely to come out of that series bruised and battered. On the immediate horizon for the Thunder are the Lakers, who lead their series against the Rockets 3–0.
LeBron James has been the best version of his 41-year-old self so far this postseason, doing anything and everything asked of his team as they battle without either of their star guards. James pulling off the same magic in a seven-game series against the Thunder would be all the more impressive, but depending on the return dates of Austin Reaves and Luka Dončić, things could get interested.
Verdict: The Spurs are the most viable contender to take down the Thunder before the Finals, but the two sides wouldn’t potentially meet until the conference finals, and San Antonio still has a whole lot of work to do to get there. In the immediate future, the Lakers' ability to stay with the Thunder will likely come down to the health of Dončić. If he’s on the court and playing like himself, anything is possible for Los Angeles. That said, it’s very clear that as things stand, the reigning champs are the heavy favorites to represent the West again in the Finals.
Pistons-Magic: Can Orlando out-bully Detroit all the way to a series upset?
It’s hard to describe just how uninteresting this series felt just a week ago. In the play-in tournament, the Magic started out by playing absolutely flat against a Joel Embiid-less Sixers squad. And while they showed plenty of fight in their win over the Hornets to secure the No. 8 seed, it felt like the biggest stakes the Magic were really playing for was the potential job security of coach Jamahl Mosley.
But Orlando proved me and the rest of the doubters wrong right out of the gate against Detroit, bullying the Pistons to a 112–101 Game 1 win in which the Magic never trailed. A dismal shooting night in Game 2 left Orlando without a real chance from the jump, but in Saturday’s Game 3, the Magic put up the same physically dominant performance to jump out to a lead and hold on for most of the night.
While the Pistons fought all the way back to make things tense in the fourth quarter, Orlando was able to hold off that final charge and ultimately take a 2–1 series lead.
Since the playoffs expanded to a 16-team field in the 1983–84 season, No. 1 seeds have won 67 of their 72 first-round series. History is on the Pistons side. That said, the Magic are now 7–1 on their home court in the postseason over the past three years, can they ride that home court advantage all the way to the next round?
Verdict: The Magic are extremely live dogs, but they are still the underdogs in this one.
Despite trailing in the series, the Pistons are still favored to come out of the first round here. But the edge the Pistons hold is very much from the reputation they built over the course of the season, rather than how they have played the past three games. Watching the series up until this point, you would have no idea this was a No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup based on what we’ve seen on the court. – Lauletta
Spurs-Trail Blazers: Can the Spurs speed run their way to playoff experience?
Heading into the playoffs no one in the NBA questioned the talent of this season’s Spurs squad. Time and time again throughout the regular season, San Antonio proved they were ready to compete with the best of the best when the lights were brightest.
But if there was any reason to doubt the Spurs, it was their playoff inexperience. No amount of big moments in the regular season can prepare young players for the jump in intensity that comes in the playoffs, and San Antonio’s starting five entered the postseason with a combined 270 playoff minutes between them. That is ... barely any.
Through three games, we’ve seen moments where that lack of experience didn’t seem to matter and others where it was undoubtedly a factor. In Game 1, the Spurs were dominant, looking like a veteran team that was getting the first round out of the way so they could get to the real part of the playoffs when the action truly began.
In Game 2, Victor Wembanyama’s concussion threw a wrench in the plans, and put the Spurs in the type of “have to figure it out” situation that the playoffs are always going to present in one way or another. To their credit, they played admirably, but they fell short of the win.
Game 3 was likely the most promising yet for the young core, as they got the job done without Wembanyama on the floor, with rookie Dylan Harper shining off the bench for 27 points.
Verdict: This team is still young and inexperienced, but every game they play adds to that experience, and Friday night’s win without Wemby on the floor was the greatest proof yet that this team is not going to shy away from the moment. If they can internalize the lessons that every night is presenting them, maybe they can turn that inexperience from a disadvantage into a point in their favor. I wouldn’t bet against them. – Lauletta
Lakers-Rockets: Can the Lakers survive another series without Luka?
The Lakers lead the Rockets 3–0, thanks largely to the continued brilliance of LeBron James and Luke Kennard’s shooting—though it escaped him in Game 3. Kevin Durant’s injury woes have helped L.A., but with Dončić and Austin Reaves out, Houston should be firmly in control of the series. James and Co. have simply outplayed their opponents. That won’t keep up.
If the Lakers can get past the Rockets, they’ll likely have to face the Thunder, and they won’t have a chance without Dončić and Reaves healthy. The latter appears close to returning from an oblique strain, but the former remains on the shelf with no timetable for return.
While James has shown he can still stuff the stat sheet in the postseason, he’s 41 and needs help shouldering the load. If Dončić can’t return soon, L.A. won’t be around long.
Verdict: There’s no chance the Lakers get out of the second round without Dončić. – Phillips
Nuggets-Timberwolves: Does Nikola Jokić have an answer for Rudy Gobert?
Nikola Jokić has had a forgettable series against the Timberwolves so far, as Minnesota leads 2–1. The three-time NBA MVP has been largely locked down by Rudy Gobert, who has taken his Defensive Player of the Year snub pretty hard. It is the shakiest Jokić has looked in the past six seasons.
Through three games, he is averaging 25.3 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists, but is only shooting 40.0% from the field and 20.8% from three-point range. That’s down significantly from his 56.9% field goal percentage and 38.0% three-point percentage during the regular season. In Game 3, Jokić missed 19 of the 26 shots he took. That followed a Game 2 performance in which he was 1-for-8 with Gobert guarding him. It looks like one of the best centers of all time has found his kryptonite.
Jokić has such a lengthy track record of success in the league and is still at the top of his game. He led the NBA in PER this season at 32.35, which was the second-highest mark in history. The top number is 32.85, which was set by, you guessed it, Jokić during the 2021–22 season. It would be shocking if he went out like this.
Verdict: He’ll find one. Jokić is one of the best players of his generation, and he is still in his prime. Gobert is an all-time defender, but I’d bet heavily on Joker figuring this out at some point. – Phillips
Cavaliers-Raptors: Can Brandon Ingram bounce back enough to swing the series in Toronto’s favor?
Ingram has had a rough go of it to start the postseason. He’s averaged 12 points per night over the first three games of the series with Cleveland, which includes a seven-point night where he went 3-for-15 from the field in a Game 2 loss. The Raptors made it a series in Game 3 with a 126–104 win as the home team has held serve thus far, but Ingram scored just 12 points and only took nine shots in the victory.
Simply put, Ingram hasn’t been a factor yet, which is an issue as Toronto is without Immanuel Quickley for the rest of the series. Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett have led the way as both scored 33 points apiece in the Game 3 win on Thursday. Rookie forward Collin Murray-Boyles has been good too, but the Raptors could certainly use Ingram’s 21.5 points per game from the regular season to have a real shot at eliminating the Cavaliers.
Verdict: Yes, if Ingram can be more aggressive. He led the Raptors in scoring this year while taking 16.7 shots a night and putting up 4.6 three-point attempts. He already has two games this series where he’s only taken nine shots, which isn’t a winning recipe for the Raptors even if Barnes and Barrett continue to shine. Either way, however, it will be difficult for Toronto to get past Cleveland. – Silverman
Hawks-Knicks: Can the Hawks legitimately turn into this year’s version of the Pacers?
The Hawks are out to a 2–1 lead on the Knicks in their first-round series. While Atlanta’s early success may be a surprise if you look at the Eastern Conference standings, the Hawks were one of the NBA’s best teams after the All-Star break and appeared to be one of the biggest upset candidates entering the playoffs.
So far, so good through three games. Veteran guard CJ McCollum, who was acquired ahead of the trade deadline in the Trae Young deal, has starred over the first three games of the series. He turned into Madison Square Garden’s newest villain in Atlanta’s Game 2 win. He’s averaged 27 points per game thus far as he’s provided some much-needed scoring alongside young star Jalen Johnson and newly minted Most Improved Player Nickeil Alexander-Walker. A little Tyrese Haliburton-esque as the Hawks hope to play spoiler to the Knicks like last year’s Pacers.
Atlanta’s early postseason success isn’t much of a surprise. The Hawks posted the second-best defensive rating and the fourth-best net rating across the NBA following the All-Star break. They looked solid without Young all year and McCollum’s arrival coupled with the continued emergence of Johnson and Alexander-Walker makes the Hawks a true postseason threat.
Verdict: Yes, the Hawks could make a run through the Eastern Conference. A win over the Knicks would pit Atlanta against the winner of the Celtics-76ers series. On the other side of the Eastern Conference, the Cavaliers and top-seeded Pistons are Finals threats, but each contender in the East has shown its flaws to start the playoffs which makes the conference wide open for a team like the Hawks. – Silverman
Celtics-76ers: Does rookie guard VJ Edgecombe need to be the Sixers’ x-factor?
Philadelphia’s offense is always centered around Maxey, but especially so without Embiid.
Although it’s a small sample size, the 76ers’ sole win thus far came in a 30-point, 10-rebound performance from standout rookie VJ Edgecombe. The No. 3 pick in last summer’s draft averaged 16.0 points per game in his rookie season and has cemented himself as half of the franchise’s backcourt of the future alongside Maxey.
In Philadelphia’s two losses to Boston this series, Edgecombe was inefficient from the field. Paul George has been solid, but he hasn’t provided the scoring pop needed as a true No. 2 to Maxey. Other supporting cast members Kelly Oubre Jr. and Andre Drummond have contributed, but the biggest question that faces Philly for the rest of the series is who can be Robin to Maxey’s Batman.
Verdict: Edgecombe doesn’t need to go off each night, but it certainly helps while Embiid remains on the shelf. You can’t expect a rookie to pop each game, so Oubre, George and Co. have a lot on their shoulders while Embiid’s status remains up in the air. – Silverman
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NBA Playoffs Burning Questions: Are the Magic Now the Favorites to Advance vs. Pistons?.
