One of the wildest first rounds in recent memory has wrapped, and the NBA playoffs are onto the conference semifinals.
In the East, all four series were competitive, with three going to a Game 7 and two featuring comebacks from 3–1 series deficits. Even the Knicks, who put pedal to the metal in winning the final three games against the Hawks, were down 2–1 early on in the series.
The Western Conference was a bit chalkier, with the top-seeded Thunder and Spurs running through their series, though Victor Wembanyama’s Game 2 concussion injected a bit of drama for San Antonio against the Trail Blazers. The Timberwolves, down Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo for much of their series, gritted out a six-game series upset of the Nuggets, eliminating Nikola Jokić & Co.
How do the remaining eight teams stack up as we enter the second round of the playoffs on Monday night? Here is how Sports Illustrated’s NBA staff ranks each team entering the conference semifinals.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
In a clean four-game sweep of the Suns in the first round, the Thunder looked like the same team that ran through the rest of the NBA during the regular season—in both good and bad ways.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played like the reigning MVP, with 33.8 points per game in 35.7 minutes per night (and plenty of free throw attempts to boot.) The team’s defense was suffocating, forcing Phoenix to turn the ball over 64 times in four contests. The top-tier role players dotting the roster all stepped up at different moments and continued to solidify OKC’s place as the most well-rounded contender remaining in the field.
Unfortunately, just like in the regular season, Jalen Williams got hurt. The 25-year-old, who starred during the Thunder’s championship run last year, missed all but 33 games of the regular season before suffering a Grade 1 hamstring strain in Game 2 against the Suns. His team took care of business anyway and Williams has enjoyed plenty of time to rest before Monday night’s Game 1 against the Lakers, but his questionable availability persists as one of the only holes to poke in the Thunder’s championship case. Even so they’ve earned the right to be seen as favorites entering the second round.
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2. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs entered this postseason aiming to prove youthful exuberance trumps inexperience. So far, so good.
San Antonio’s young superstar, Victor Wembanyama, enjoyed a strong debut in his first playoff showing, a five-game series win over the Trail Blazers despite a Game 2 concussion derailing his experience for a bit. While he faded a bit offensively after a stellar Game 1 in that department his defense never wavered as the Defensive Player of the Year controlled the game completely with his ability to shut down the paint—he racked up 16 blocks and led the Spurs to a 102.2 defensive rating, second-best among playoff teams so far.
Beyond Wemby, the team’s other young bucks stepped up when he had to miss Game 3, particularly Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle. Even De’Aaron Fox, who looked a step slow this regular season, delivered his best performances when San Antonio needed it most in Game 4 and Game 5. All of that was helped by an excellent showing of three-point shooting across the roster; San Antonio finished the first round hitting 41.8% of its attempts from deep, the best mark of all postseason teams.
That could mean a regression to the mean is coming. But the Spurs are still a terror of a defensive team that can dominate opponents on that end to such a degree that what happens offensively doesn’t matter. The Thunder are the only other team in the field that can boast such a high floor/ceiling combo.
3. New York Knicks
Early on in their series against the Hawks, the Knicks were one of a few high seeds that seemed to be in jeopardy, leading to plenty of angst around up-and-down forward Mikal Bridges, coach Mike Brown and plenty of others around the franchise.
And then New York responded by looking like the best team in the East for three games, winning games four through six by 16, 29 and 51(!) points to dispatch Atlanta.
Given the Pistons’ struggles against the Magic in the opening round—and the Knicks’ easier draw of the 76ers in round two after their upset of the Celtics—New York looks to be in great shape to make an NBA Finals run. The squad should also be fairly well rested, by playoff standards at least. Of the Knicks’ five starters, only OG Anunoby hit 40 minutes in any of the final three games of the Hawks series, and he did so just once. Jalen Brunson and Bridges are actually below their season minutes averages so far in the playoffs.
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4. Detroit Pistons
Exhale, Pistons fans. You made it to the second round. Detroit flirted with disaster in its opening-round series against the Magic, who through four games looked like they were designed specifically to match the Pistons’ physicality and take advantage of their offensive shortcomings.
Cade Cunningham was a consistent force for Detroit, averaging 32.4 points and 7.1 assists per game while shooting 46.2% from the field and 39.6% from three. Early in the series, he was the only Piston who provided an offensive threat. He got even better once Detroit faced elimination, averaging over 36 points in their final three wins, including a 45-point explosion in a 116–109 Game 5 win.
He still needs more help, though there were positive signs down the stretch. Tobias Harris had a huge Game 7 performance for the Pistons, chipping in 30 points and nine rebounds while knocking down five threes. Jalen Duren struggled throughout the series but had 15 points and 15 boards in the Game 7 win. As a team, Detroit knocked down 16 of 33 threes in the final game after shooting below 30% from deep throughout the full series.
If Game 7 helped shake the top seed out of its early-postseason rut, the Pistons can make a run to the Finals. However, if Cade Cunningham has to carry the entire rest of the roster, they become far too one-dimensional.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves just do not stop coming. Despite multiple injuries to key pieces, they toppled Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets in the postseason for the second time in three years. Minnesota relied on its entire lineup, as seven players averaged double figures in the six-game series, and there was a next man up mentality when injuries came.
Donte DiVinenzo was lost for the season in Game 4 and Anthony Edwards left with a knee injury, but it didn’t matter because Ayo Dosunmu stepped in to score 43 points after dropping 25 in Game 3. When Dosunmu missed Game 6 with a calf injury, Terrence Shannon started and scored 24 points in 35 minutes. At some point, we have to stop doubting this group.
It all starts at the defensive end for the Timberwolves. Led by Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, they held Denver, the NBA’s best three-point shooting team during the regular season (39.6%), to just 31.1% from deep in the opening round. Minnesota’s defensive rating of 108.2 ranked seventh in the first round but was a four-point improvement over the regular season (112.5). If Edwards and Dosunmu can return healthy, the Timberwolves’ should be able to give the Spurs a battle.
6. Los Angeles Lakers
This Lakers team is tough to figure out. After their ridiculously hot run through March, they looked like very clearly the third best team in the West and you could make an argument for putting them over the Spurs in the postseason on experience alone.
Then, Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves both got hurt, leaving LeBron James to carry the load mostly on his own through the final weeks of the regular season and into the first round. Los Angeles were heavy underdogs to advance against the Rockets, but LeBron & Co. found a way, and with Kevin Durant suffering an injury of his own that kept him out of the most of the series, were able to squeak through in six games.
How will they fare in the second round? It feels like their fate is entirely dependent on the potential return of Dončić. James was able to hold things down on his own against Houston, but a starting lineup that includes Luke Kennard is not going to cut it against the reigning champs. But if Dončić can make it back and look like even a healthy fraction of his normal self, there’s always a chance.
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs didn’t win their opening-round series against the Raptors, they survived it. After losing Game 6 in heartbreaking fashion, Cleveland was able to bounce back at home and close things out with a 114–102 victory. Shockingly, it wasn’t Donovan Mitchell or James Harden that lifted the Cavs out of the series. Instead, Jarrett Allen was the star in the elimination game as he scored 22 points, while grabbing 19 rebounds and adding three blocks and two steals.
Cleveland will face a Pistons team that looked wobbly against the Magic, so there is some opportunity here. If the Cavaliers are going to top Detroit, they need their stars to step up. Mitchell averaged 23.1 points against Toronto, while James Harden averaged 20.6 points and 5.1 turnovers. Evan Mobley was held to eight points in Game 4, and 13 in Game 7.
Balance and elite play from its stars will be the only way Cleveland knocks off the Pistons. During the first round, their defensive rating (111.9) ranked 10th of the 16 teams in the playoffs, they allowed a league-worst 22.0 points off turnovers and their three-point defense ranked 12th (35.6%). All of those numbers need to improve moving forward.
8. Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers exorcised plenty of demons with their first-round win over the Celtics. Down 3–1 in the series, Philadelphia rode the return of Joel Embiid and the continued superstar play of Tyrese Maxey to three straight wins and a bit of vengeance against a rival that has gotten the better of them in the postseason both historically and in recent years.
While there was a clear sense of release in the Sixers’ win in Game 7, the job does not get any easier from here. Embiid has a glaringly empty résumé in the later rounds of the playoffs, having never made it to even the conference finals in his time in Philadelphia. Beating Boston felt good, certainly, but taking down New York would be an even bigger boon, bringing this version of the Sixers further into the postseason than they ever have been before.
Can they beat the Knicks? Sure, they’re a live dog. The sides split their regular-season series 2–2, and while Embiid’s health was a big question mark throughout the first round as he worked his way back from an unexpected appendectomy, he’s looked as good and as healthy as Philly fans could have possibly hoped for since returning to the floor.
But the Knicks team they’re going up against looks like the favorite to come out of the East at this point. New York trailed in their series against the Hawks 2–1, but both of those losses came by a single point, and the Knicks dominated the next three games of the series to become the first team in the East to punch their ticket to the second round. They will be better rested, have home court advantage and sport more playoff experience than this current Sixers core. Philadelphia can win, but there’s a reason they’re the last of the remaining teams in our ranking.
More NBA Playoffs From Sports Illustrated
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- What to Expect From Anthony Edwards As He’s Set to Return for Game 1 Between Timberwolves, Spurs
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NBA Playoff Power Rankings: How the Final Eight Teams Stack Up Entering Second Round.
