With the calendar turning over to 2023, it’s time for another look at the upcoming draft. There’s still a long way to go from here, but NBA teams have been canvassing the globe per usual, and the shape of the class has begun to make a bit more sense. Apart from the fact there’s a generational prospect at the very top, and an excellent one right behind him, the actual depth of this draft has been somewhat up for debate in league circles—a number of college freshmen are underperforming, and there has been very little stratification in terms of quality both within a top tier of lottery-level players as well as a large middle portion of the draft. Some promising names emerged as first-round caliber players in November and December, but there’s plenty left to be determined.
This mock draft is built primarily on intel gleaned from a wide range of NBA scouts, executives and other sources around the basketball industry, in addition to my own ongoing scouting process in live settings as well as film review. Per usual, this exercise seeks to project what the draft would look like if it took place on a given day.
To set the order, I ran a Tankathon simulation using team records and draft odds as of Jan. 11. This is the first mock draft I’ve done that begins to factor in team fit in the lottery. Also note that these are not prospect rankings—for that, check out SI’s latest big board.
Reminder: There are only 58 picks in the 2023 draft, due to the 76ers and Bulls forfeiting their second-rounders.
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1. Raptors: Victor Wembanyama, F/C, Metropolitans 92 (France)
Height: 7'3" | Weight: 210 | Age: 19
The Raptors strike gold in this scenario, landing the top pick with just 6.7% odds and bringing home the rights to draft Wembanyama. He’s a franchise-changing prospect, and I’ve yet to find anyone around the league disputing the likelihood he hears his name called first. The fact he’s having an excellent season in France is basically gravy on top: You may have heard this line before, but there’s just never been a prospect with Wembanyama’s size, coordination, ball skills, versatility and ability to put it all together and impact winning. It’s all real. It’s not the year to be a contrarian.
2. Spurs: Scoot Henderson, PG, G League Ignite
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 195 | Age: 18
There’s considerably enough separation between Henderson and the rest of the field at No. 2 that teams with young guards on board likely won’t even think twice about it. Henderson is back from injury and continuing to put up excellent numbers in the G League, validating just how advanced he is as a teenager from a physical and skill perspective. There are still rough edges to iron out here—he has to lead vocally, take better care of the ball, shoot it better from distance and become a more committed defender—but there aren’t any obvious flaws that should hold Henderson back from stardom. This is not a year when the No. 1 pick will be widely debated, but Henderson is an excellent prospect and will be drafted as such.
3. Rockets: Anthony Black, G, Arkansas
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 200 | Age: 18 | Freshman
This isn’t some crazy revelation considering the strength of the top two spots in this draft, but team executives have begun to view the No. 3 pick as where this year’s draft really begins. While there are a handful of players with legitimate candidacy, there’s no league-wide consensus surrounding this spot, and it will depend heavily on which team ends up drafting here. The Rockets have loaded up on shot creators, but would benefit from the addition of some connective playmaking fiber in their rotation.
Again, it’s early in this process, but Black has played his way into consideration for a very high selection. He offers untapped upside as well as a high floor due to his elite size for a lead guard, advanced feel and positive impact on both ends of the floor. Black has been a much more effective and efficient scorer than many expected at Arkansas, and while he’ll need to cut down on his turnovers and work hard to improve his jumper, he’s established himself as a versatile, jumbo-sized playmaker with a lot of room to refine his skills.
4. Magic: Brandon Miller, G/F, Alabama
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 200 | Age: 20 | Freshman
Orlando has put itself in a strong position moving forward with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner looking like a potent duo. It should also get a couple of more cracks in the lottery this season, as it owns Chicago’s pick save for its top-four protection. Miller is in the mix as high as No. 3 due to his ability to create shots for himself and knock down jumpers off the bounce and catch, which is always in particular demand for players his size. The Magic are already leaning hard into tall, skilled lineups, and Miller would fit that bill.
Miller is not a powerful finisher and has to develop a bit more physically, placing him somewhere in the vein of a prospect like Brandon Ingram, who took some time to adjust but successfully put all his skills to use over the course of his career. It’s important not to overlook the fact that Miller is old for a freshman, having turned 20 years old in November, placing him in the same age bracket as college sophomores and a number of current young NBA players. But draft positioning tends to hang more on long-term projection than anything else, and as long as Miller continues to pour in buckets over the course of SEC play, he’s likely to hear his name called early.
5. Pistons: Jarace Walker, F, Houston
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 240 | Age: 19 | Freshman
With Cade Cunningham out for the season, the Pistons have found themselves effectively back in tank mode, with Jaden Ivey gaining valuable minutes in the meantime. In this scenario, Detroit misses on a top-two pick, but remains in position to add to its core.
Walker has come on strong to start 2023 and remains on track for a lottery selection, with a unique mix of defensive versatility and offensive upside that could turn him into a high-level starter on a winning team. His strong build, length and mobility should make him a multipositional defender out of the gate. He’s also pretty skilled for a player his size, with terrific passing vision and the capacity to handle the ball, making him a good fit for positionless-style lineups. Scouts want to see him shoot the three more confidently and tend to think his jumper will eventually allow him to space the floor, which would round out his profile nicely. Walker’s diverse, functional strengths make him a good fit on most rosters.
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6. Hornets: Amen Thompson, G/F, Overtime Elite
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 200 | Age: 19
Scouts I’ve spoken with have mixed opinions on Thompson, who is one of the best athletes in the draft and will pose an intriguing risk-reward proposition for teams selecting in the lottery. He’d be a fascinating addition to the Hornets, who would be able to play extremely up-tempo with LaMelo Ball and Thompson together.
There’s upside ascribed to the fact Thompson currently plays as a lead ballhandler, as he’s a blur in transition, a plus passer and explosive getting into the paint. He also makes splashy plays defensively. But there’s presently a degree of skepticism around the league as to whether Thompson will actually play point guard full time in the NBA. His handle can be somewhat loose, defenses are going to dare him to shoot jumpers and his ability to create good looks and read defenses in the half court is going to be heavily tested. He could go as high as No. 3, but there’s a lot of variance in how teams project him out, and if he winds up playing more on the wing and his shot doesn’t come together, there’s downside. Still, the potential fit in Charlotte intrigues me.
7. Wizards: Cam Whitmore, F, Villanova
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 235 | Age: 18 | Freshman
Washington’s recent draft picks mostly haven’t panned out the way it had hoped, which could ostensibly put it in a more risk-averse mindset going into this draft. Whitmore is a relatively known quantity, with plus physical tools and a pretty reliable jumper that should help him get settled in the NBA.
Although Whitmore hasn’t been exceptionally impactful or consistent so far, he missed the first month of the season after having thumb surgery and has begun to settle in for a Villanova program that remains in a bit of flux following Jay Wright’s retirement. I scouted him earlier this week at DePaul, and it’s evident he could be getting much more out of his ability as a rebounder and defender, which are growth areas to track moving forward. He projects as a power wing who can space the floor and attack defenses on a straight line, but likely won’t create a ton of his own offense. Whitmore’s innate strengths make him a worthy lottery talent.
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8. Thunder: Ausar Thompson, G/F, Overtime Elite
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 205 | Age: 19
The Thunder haven’t been quite as bad as some expected, although it’s possible OKC leans a bit harder into tanking in the back end of the season. Thompson would be an interesting addition to their core, as a potential glue guy with scoring upside who wouldn’t be tasked with a ton of shot creation early in his career in this situation.
While Thompson’s twin brother, Amen, has been widely projected to be drafted ahead of him, I wouldn’t treat that as a foregone conclusion yet—I’ve heard sentiment from scouts that Ausar is actually the safer prospect of the two, playing a wing role that may translate cleaner to the NBA as long as he develops into a sufficient catch-and-shoot threat. He’s a high-level athlete and transition menace, and also a natural competitor on the defensive end, where his size and quickness make him very difficult to score on. Thompson is a big bet on intangibles, tools and shooting growth, but steady progression could turn him into an extremely useful player over time.
9. Magic (from Bulls): Nick Smith Jr., PG, Arkansas
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 195 | Age: 18 | Freshman
Orlando projects to pick twice in the lottery as long as this Bulls pick doesn’t jump into the top four. Smith’s shot-creation chops could make him a nice addition to Orlando’s group of young guards, considering its frontcourt seems to be mostly solved. It’s been a tumultuous stretch for Smith, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury and will be reevaluated sometime in February. He’s made just five appearances this season, and while Smith’s reputation stemming from high school will earn him some benefit of the doubt, the thought of him being drafted as high as No. 3 feels a bit less likely based on the way things have gone. He’s a creative, high-energy combo guard who scores the ball effectively and utilizes speed and change of pace to attack the paint. It’s unclear whether we’ll see Smith play another college game, but he’ll likely be among the first guards selected regardless.
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10. Pelicans (from Lakers): Cason Wallace, G, Kentucky
Height: 6’4" | Weight: 195 | Age: 19 | Freshman
Wallace’s defensive chops and steady play would fit in well with New Orleans, who may wind up picking in the lottery via this pick swap with the Lakers. Wallace is one of the more pragmatic Kentucky prospects to come along in some time: He’s not flashy or superdynamic as a creator, but he contributes to winning basketball with his all-around play and willingness to make small plays that not all five-star recruits like to make. His individual performance has been somewhat up-and-down at Kentucky, and he’s started slow in conference play, but Wallace offers a very high floor as a complementary combo guard. It would be nice to see him get to the foul line more often and convert at a higher rate as a result, but he isn’t really helped by Kentucky’s personnel setup and should get some benefit of the doubt as a strong lottery candidate.
11. Trail Blazers: G.G. Jackson, F, South Carolina
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 215 | Age: 18 | Freshman
As the youngest draft-eligible prospect, Jackson is getting long looks due to his physical tools and flashes of shotmaking skills, though he’s a bit divisive amongst scouts. Sometimes it’s hard to discern in players whether bad tendencies are due to inexperience or lack of feel, but Jackson’s shot selection can be poor and his defensive effort middling, and despite his strong counting stats he hasn’t been a consistently positive player based on the advanced numbers. He can’t be relied on to make decisions at the NBA level anytime soon. It’s going to take him a while before contributing, and he may benefit from G League time, but the raw components are there for him to become a switchable, floor-spacing forward. For a team with multiple first-round picks, or one with the time to wait out Jackson’s development, he should look a lot more appealing.
12. Hawks: Gradey Dick, G/F, Kansas
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 200 | Age: 19 | Freshman
By establishing himself essentially on arrival as one of the best shooters in college basketball, Dick exceeded scouts’ early expectations and has put himself on a clear pathway into the first round. The fact there’s not a lot of quality three-point shooting available amongst the potential lottery-caliber prospects strengthens his case: He is a good athlete, plays with composure and has a skill set that should lead to a long career. Dick should be good enough defensively to stay on the floor, and might be able to step in relatively quickly and provide a team with useful minutes. He figures to come off the board somewhere in the 10–20 range as long as he stays the course for the rest of the 2022–23 season.
13. Jazz: Rayan Rupert, SF, New Zealand Breakers (France)
Height: 6'6" | Weight: Not listed | Age: 18
After missing two months with a wrist injury, Rupert returned last week without missing much of a beat and has made good use of his minutes in a bench role with the Breakers. Rupert’s defensive-minded approach, lengthy wingspan and improving jumper make him a fascinating long-term prospect as his frame fills out and he continues building out his offensive game. He appears to have a good sense of who he is as a player already and could be one of the best defenders in this draft class over the long run. Considering how underwhelming some of the college freshmen have been, it’s pretty feasible to think Rupert could work his way into the lottery, following former Breakers wing Ousmane Dieng from the NBL into the draft.
14. Jazz (from Timberwolves): Maxwell Lewis, G/F, Pepperdine
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 195 | Age: 20 | Sophomore
One of the better stories in college basketball has been Lewis’s rapid ascendance as the most talented mid-major player in the country. NBA teams have taken notice, and while he’s primarily been lighting up lower-level competition, Lewis combines projectable physical tools with high-level athleticism and burgeoning shotmaking skills. There’s a ton of untapped upside with him, and his play as we near the halfway point of the season has exceeded expectations already. Lewis has a lot of work left to do to polish his game, but his nightly flashes of ability have been loud. After watching Jalen Williams steadily work his way from Santa Clara into the lottery last year, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise if Lewis does the same.
15. Warriors: Taylor Hendricks, F, UCF
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 210 | Age: 19 | Freshman
Hendricks has been building lottery bona fides as one of the top freshmen in the country, despite the fact he entered the season off the one-and-done radar. He’s long and athletic, he blocks shots, he can knock down threes and he checks all the right boxes as a prototypical stretch four-man. Teams are still learning more about him, but his range seems to be settling firmly in the first round, with a chance to rise further into the lottery if he keeps producing in conference play. As long as the shooting proves real, prospects in Hendricks’s mold tend to have utility pretty quickly in the NBA.
16. Suns: Keyonte George, G, Baylor
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 185 | Age: 19 | Freshman
While George hasn’t been a bastion of efficiency in college, his shot-creation chops create some intrigue in a long-term scoring combo guard role. His inconsistency and lack of a true physical advantage at the NBA level may ultimately keep him from going in the lottery—a lot of his numbers have been volume-based and not necessarily in concert with winning impact—but George does have some undeniable talent as a scorer and has shown a knack for drawing fouls, as well. His defensive impact isn’t great. George will have to harness all of his offensive ability into more technical, measured shot selection and creation and start to approach the game in a more mature way for this to work. But a strong second half of the season will strengthen his case to go higher than this.
17. Clippers: Dariq Whitehead, G/F, Duke
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 190 | Age: 18 | Freshman
Whitehead has begun to hit his stride a little bit in January, and his minutes have trended upward as a result. But he’s largely underperformed relative to his considerable hype coming out of high school. Those types of situations with blue-chip players can sometimes lead to overcriticism, but Whitehead’s struggles to score efficiently and impact games defensively have led some scouts to recalibrate their expectations. He’s still quite young for his class, and as he settles in, there’s still a chance he winds up in the lottery, but his lack of an immediate, translatable calling-card skill has given some people pause. Ultimately, considering his pedigree, expect a team to roll the dice in this part of the draft.
18. Heat: Jett Howard, G/F, Michigan
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 215 | Age: 19 | Freshman
Howard projects as one of the safer potential role players in the draft, already playing a mature, efficient style as a perimeter scorer and ball-mover. He’s listed a bit generously at 6’8”, but should be able to plug and play pretty early in the NBA due to his proclivity for knocking down shots, picking the right spots and minimizing mistakes. As the son of Michigan coach and longtime NBA vet Juwan Howard, the overall advanced nature of his game makes a lot of sense, and while Howard may not possess star upside as a shot creator, there’s a lot to feel good about here in the middle of the first round.
19. Knicks: Noah Clowney, F, Alabama
Height: 6'10" Weight: 210 | Age: 18 | Freshman
The headlines surrounding the Crimson Tide have belonged to Brandon Miller, but Clowney has built a compelling case as a prospect worth drafting immediately. In a first round that’s a little thin on bigs, Clowney’s two-way impact coupled with the fact he’s quite young for this draft has been noteworthy. He’s long and mobile. He blocks shots and rebounds well. And he should be able to defend multiple frontcourt spots. He can finish around the rim and has also flashed some shooting potential, which would make him massively valuable. Clowney has put himself in the one-and-done conversation and could rise from here with continued positive play.
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20. Kings: Leonard Miller, F, G League Ignite
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 210 | Age: 19
It’s hard to ignore how productive Miller has been in the G League this season, and choosing Ignite rather than entering last year’s draft appears to be a strong decision for his development. Factoring in his sheer size, mobility and base skill level, along with his emergence as an extremely active rebounder, Miller has a wide range of appealing tools for a team to develop, which I’d bet will ultimately lead to a first-round selection. There just aren’t very many 6'10" players with his type of potential perimeter functionality, and he seems to have bought into a real role. Considering his age and his success at the G League level, Miller looks like a worthwhile long-term bet in the first round, and potentially even higher than No. 20.
21. Knicks (from Mavericks): Brice Sensabaugh, SG, Ohio State
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 235 | Age: 19 | Freshman
Sensabaugh has been one of the more immediately impactful freshmen in the college game, with a great feel for scoring at all three levels and picking his spots. The questions mostly center around his athleticism and frame, which is on the heavier side for a scoring wing relative to NBA standards. He hasn’t gotten to the rim a ton, often settling for jumpers and midrange looks, but he makes a lot of them. The risk here is that if Sensabaugh’s shot creation doesn’t quite translate to the same degree in the pros and his athletic ability proves a drawback, his complementary skill set isn’t quite as attractive. Still, he’s an excellent player and interesting prospect who could certainly rise from here.
22. Pacers: Kyle Filipowski, PF, Duke
Height: 6'11" | Weight: 220 | Age: 19 | Freshman
Filipowski has his fans around the league as a productive offensive big with a notable competitive streak, but his play has trended down in recent weeks along with his efficiency. Considering his NBA impact will primarily come on that end of the floor, as he’s not a great defender or athlete, there are fair questions here surrounding his eventual utility in a league that can be harsh on bigs that fit his mold. He’s still been the most reliable producer among Duke’s freshmen, and his combination of size and offensive skill level aren’t easy to find, but finding the right fit will be key for his long-term success, and not every decision-maker will ultimately value what he brings to the table. He still projects to come off the board somewhere in the first round.
23. Lakers (from Pelicans): Kris Murray, F, Iowa
Height: 6'8" Weight: 225 | Age: 22 | Junior
Murray has been extremely efficient this season and projects neatly into an NBA role due to his compact and consistent shooting stroke and competent physical tools. He’s not as dynamic a scorer or as active a defender as his twin brother, Keegan, who went fourth in last year’s draft, but Murray should have some translatable skills to offer as a low-maintenance rotation player. He’ll be 23 when he makes his NBA debut, but scouts are pretty comfortable with what he brings to the table as a high-floor first-round option—the shooting and size should play up.
24. Pacers (from Cavs): Kel’el Ware, C, Oregon
Height: 7'0" | Weight: 225 | Age: 18 | Freshman
It’s been a bit tricky for scouts to know what to expect from Ware, who has some very obvious NBA-caliber physical traits and shooting potential, but doesn’t really utilize those tools on a regular basis to impact games. There are some pretty real questions about his engagement level and desire as a player, and the fact his minutes have been trending down hasn’t helped assuage those concerns. This is a relatively thin draft as far as centers are concerned, which probably helps buoy Ware’s stock somewhere in the back half of the first round, but he has a lot of work to do to change the perception around his game at the moment.
25. Nets (from Sixers): Mark Mitchell, F, Duke
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 220 | Age: 19 | Freshman
One of the more interesting stay-or-go decisions in this draft figures to be Mitchell, who would likely benefit from a second year of college seasoning, but whose impressive frame and potential two-way impact could vault him into the first round. He may be able to defend all over the perimeter and also switch onto bigs, and he’s shot the ball much better than expected from distance, albeit on a small sample. Mitchell has some of the best physical tools in the draft and has been pretty effective as a defender and complementary scorer for Duke. He’s the type of prospect you can talk yourself into long term and may wind up with a pretty solid first-round case if this keeps up.
26. Rockets (from Bucks): Dereck Lively II, C, Duke
Height: 7'1" | Weight: 220 | Age: 18 | Freshman
Lively has demonstrated his ability to impact games with his size and shot blocking. But it remains concerning that he’s been unable to secure a bigger share of minutes at Duke and that his impact on the glass and as a play-finisher has been minimal. While he may be someone who works his way back up draft boards in workouts, it would be a surprise at this point if he winds up in the lottery. He has offered little in the way of actual production and profiles as a true, one-position center that doesn’t space the floor, an archetype that’s been greatly devalued in the modern NBA. At this point, assuming he chooses to turn pro, Lively will be drafted purely as a project, barring some unexpected turnaround in ACC play and the postseason.
27. Jazz (from Nets): Marcus Sasser, G, Houston
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 195 | Age: 22 | Senior
Things have gone more or less as expected for Sasser, who is the best player on arguably the best college team in the country and has proven himself as a winner who competes on both ends. His best skill remains his shooting, and due to heavy volume he’s been a little streaky from three-point range, but Sasser looks like a pretty bankable role player who will be able to hit shots, make plays for teammates and competently defend smaller guards. There’s obvious upside in the shooting and some potential in his other traits, making him a good candidate in the 20s.
28. Hornets (from Nuggets): Colby Jones, G, Xavier
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 205 | Age: 20 | Junior
Jones is in the midst of a stellar junior season and looks like a quality role player who should help teams win, putting him in pretty good position for looks in the mid-to-late first round. He’s taken a big leap as a shooter this season, which was his primary growth area from a pro perspective, and he couples that with the size to defend multiple positions and terrific feel for moving the ball around the perimeter. Jones isn’t going to create a ton of shots for himself, but his value should lie in the versatility he brings to lineups and his ability to make teammates better. He’s a nice bet in the 20s.
29. Grizzlies: Jaime Jaquez Jr., F, UCLA
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 | Age: 21 | Senior
Jaquez should be ready to handle bench minutes next season as a high-feel, experienced frontcourt player with solid size and strength. He projects as a complementary rotation piece and could be even better playing on a team that doesn’t rely on him heavily to score. He’s proven himself as a winning player over the course of his college career and been a bit more efficient this year playing healthy. Jaquez still hasn’t made the leap scouts have hoped for as a three-point shooter, which is a concern he’ll have to address in workouts, but his intangibles and work ethic should also help pad that issue. He’s a nice pick in this range for a playoff team.
30. Pacers (from Celtics): Dillon Mitchell, F, Texas
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 205 | Age: 19 | Freshman
Although Mitchell has been among the more disappointing blue-chip freshmen and likely hasn’t done enough to sneak into the lottery anymore, his athleticism and pedigree will still earn him looks in the middle part of the draft. That being said, it’s far from a lock that he hears his name called in the first round at this point, considering his inconsistent and sometimes minimal impact on games as a scorer and rebounder. Mitchell is the type of athlete who may be able to help himself on the workout circuit, but his stock is in real flux at the moment, and he may be due for a fall into the second round if things stay on this course.
31. Pistons: Jordan Hawkins, SG, UConn | Sophomore
32. Pacers (from Rockets): Terquavion Smith, G, NC State | Sophomore
33. Sixers (from Hornets): Reece Beekman, G, Virginia | Junior
34. Spurs: Keyontae Johnson, F, Kansas State | Senior
35. Magic: Julian Phillips, F, Tennessee | Freshman
36. Thunder (from Wizards): Tyrese Hunter, G, Texas | Sophomore
37. Raptors: Jalen Wilson, F, Kansas | Senior
38. Nuggets (from Thunder): Terrance Arceneaux, SG, Houston | Freshman
39. Lakers: Terrence Shannon, G/F, Illinois | Senior
40. Lakers (from Bulls): Nikola Durišić, G/F, Mega Basket
41. Hawks: Coleman Hawkins, F, Illinois | Junior
42. Celtics (from Blazers): Sidy Cissoko, F, G League Ignite
43. Hornets (from Jazz): Oscar Tshiebwe, C, Kentucky | Senior
44. Cavs (from Warriors): Julian Strawther, G/F, Gonzaga | Junior
45. Grizzlies (from Timberwolves): Baba Miller, F, Florida State | Freshman
46. Suns: Jalen Hood-Schifino, G, Indiana | Freshman
47. Clippers: Andre Jackson, F, UConn | Junior
48. Nuggets (from Heat): Amari Bailey, G, UCLA | Freshman
49. Timberwolves (from Knicks): Ricky Council, G/F, Arkansas | Junior
50. Kings: Jaylen Clark, SG, UCLA | Junior
51. Celtics (from Mavericks): Adem Bona, C, UCLA | Freshman
52. Kings (from Pacers): James Nnaji, F/C, Barcelona
53. Hawks (from Pelicans): Emoni Bates, SG, Eastern Michigan | Sophomore
54. Bucks (from Cavs): Arthur Kaluma, F, Creighton | Sophomore
55. Bucks: Zach Edey, C, Purdue | Junior
56. Grizzlies: Matthew Murrell, SG, Ole Miss | Junior
