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Sports Illustrated

Sport

Jeremy Woo

NBA Mock Draft: Victor Wembanyama Leads Strong 2023 Lottery Class

Victor Wembanyama NBA Scoot Henderson Amen Thompson Cam Whitmore Dariq Whitehead Jarace Walker Nick Smith Cason Wallace Dillon Mitchell

It’s that time again: with college basketball getting underway and this season’s NBA hierarchy starting to sort itself out, it’s slightly more responsible to start mocking out what the 2023 draft may look like. We’ve had more than usual to chew on regarding the draft at this early stage of the cycle, with Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson and others having begun their seasons more than a month ago. NBA executives seem pretty optimistic about the depth of the lottery right now—there are a lot of intriguing young guys and college freshmen, which would seem to cover for the fact that the college returning group doesn’t seem all that impressive at the moment.

I’ve been on the road over the past couple months, stopping at the Champions Classic on Tuesday, and I’ll hit the college circuit hard next week, with plenty of high-profile games scheduled, culminating in the PK85 tournament in Portland. That event, which features 16 teams across two separate brackets, should be attended by most of the NBA’s top decision-makers, as a veritable one-stop shop for a good chunk of this year’s college talent. As usual, we should know a lot more about what’s coming in a month or so, once more games are played and there’s more to see on film. Having said all that, I’ll reiterate that there’s currently cautious optimism that this might be one of the better lottery classes in a while, starting with a generational talent in Wembanyama. We’ll see whether the perception of depth holds true by spring, but it’s a nice place to start.

As usual, this mock draft aims to project what the draft might look like if it took place on a given day. These are not my prospect rankings. (Those are coming later.) To determine the draft order, I ran a simulation using team records as of Wednesday, Nov. 16. Here’s how things have begun to shape up—with the caveat that it’s not even Thanksgiving yet.

Note: There are only 58 picks in this year’s draft, with Philadelphia and Chicago both forfeiting their second-round picks due to league tampering.

1. Pistons: Victor Wembanyama, F/C, Metropolitans 92 (France)

Height: 7'3" | Weight: 210 | Age: 18

Wembanyama is widely regarded as one of the most exciting prospects ever for good reason: he lives up to the hype. And barring anything shocking, he’ll be the first player drafted. His all-around game features remarkable shot-making ability and movement skills at his height, and it has begun to take off this season. Suffice it to say that he should make an immense impact on both ends of the floor as he continues maturing. Wembanyama will obviously have to stay healthy, which can be a challenge for mobile 7-footers, but there’s simply not a lot to nitpick about his floor game, and he offers strong intangibles to match. Wembanyama should change a franchise’s fortunes in a serious way before too long. No matter who actually wins the lottery, we can pretty much sharpie this one in.

2. Pelicans (from Lakers): Scoot Henderson, PG, G League Ignite

Height: 6'2" | Weight: 195 | Age: 18

Henderson has strongly positioned himself as the next-best prospect in this draft class and is off to a nice start in his second G League campaign. He is exceptionally advanced physically for an 18-year-old and has made nice strides working to master the ins and outs of his position. Continuing to become a better jump shooter, decision-maker and defender is imperative, but Henderson can already take over games with his speed and power getting downhill. He has the tools necessary to wind up as one of the better point guards in the NBA in due time. There’s a long way to go before the draft, and it’s not impossible that someone else could unseat him here at No. 2, but after two years with the Ignite, Henderson should finish the season as the most NBA-ready guard prospect amongst the blue-chippers in this class.

3. Magic: Nick Smith, PG, Arkansas

Height: 6'5" | Weight: 195 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Smith is dealing with a knee injury to start the season and it’s unclear exactly when he’ll take the floor, but whenever he does it should be appointment viewing. I saw Arkansas play Texas a couple weeks ago during an exhibition game and left even more convinced of Smith’s bonafides—he’s maybe the most naturally creative scoring guard in this class, and his pace and energy are big separators. He’s perhaps listed a bit generously at 6'5” from my eye test, but he’s got enough size and speed to excel as a lead guard in the long run. I’m curious how efficiently Smith is going to score over the course of the season, and the fact he’s hurt is a bummer, but expect him to come off the board early as long as he stays the course.

4. Rockets: Amen Thompson, G/F, Overtime Elite

Height: 6'7" | Weight: 200 | Age: 19

Boasting a unique blend of quick-twitch athleticism and excellent passing acumen, Thompson will justify a high selection if he can fully transition into an on-ball role. He is one of the best athletes in the draft and should be an impactful defender with the way he covers ground. Teams are going to have to decide how concerned they are about his below-average jump shooting and how much they believe Thompson’s game will immediately translate after a huge jump in level from Overtime Elite to the NBA, as well as consider the fact he turns 20 in January. Those wild card elements will have a lot to do with where he’s drafted. But he is a legitimate lottery talent and has made big strides in the past six months. He should be impactful as long as he’s even an average shooter in the long run.

5. Hornets: Jarace Walker, F, Houston

Height: 6'8" | Weight: 240 | Age: 19 | Freshman

There are very few players anywhere who couple a body type that can handle defensive minutes as a small-ball five with the skill level to operate like a small forward. Walker has the potential to bridge that gap: he’s huge, he can handle and pass, he can defend three positions, and he’s shown enough demonstrable touch that he might also eventually be a reliable floor spacer. Houston’s hard-hat team approach will give him an excellent platform to prove he’s fully committed to doing the small things, and if he puts everything together his versatility should be in high demand. The strides Walker is making feel pretty sustainable, and there’s nobody else in this draft class with his particular skill set.

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6. Magic (from Bulls): Dariq Whitehead, G/F, Duke

Height: 6'7" | Weight: 220 | Age: 18 | Freshman

After fracturing his right foot and having surgery in early October, Whitehead has yet to make his debut but is nearing a return for Duke. He’s one of the youngest prospects in this draft class and also one of the more accomplished players amongst the incoming freshmen, with a well-rounded game and a pretty bankable floor as a utility wing who can contribute in multiple areas. Whitehead will need to become a more polished catch-and-shoot player and improve his shot selection in the long run—he can sometimes be too jumper-reliant—but his ability to defend, move the ball and provide cover on the wing shouldn’t be understated. He may not wind up as a star in the long run, but there’s a pretty strong chance he’s a valuable contributor for a long time.

7. Spurs: Cam Whitmore, F, Villanova

Height: 6'6" | Weight: 235 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Due to October thumb surgery, Whitmore remains out for the early part of this season, but there’s some hope he might return next week for the PK85 tournament in Portland. NBA executives are eagerly anticipating his return to the floor, as he built momentum with a strong spring on the All-Star circuit and also has age on his side as one of the youngest players in the class. He’s a powerful athlete with perimeter shooting chops who continues to improve putting the ball on the floor and impacting the game defensively. He’s tough for slower players to stay in front of, and he can use his heft to bully weaker ones. Players of Whitmore’s ilk who can play either forward spot and enable teams to play a fast pace are highly valuable, and he’s pretty firmly in the lottery mix whenever he returns to play.

8. Nets: Cason Wallace, G, Kentucky

Height: 6’4" | Weight: 195 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Wallace is one of my favorite players in this class and also one of the most college-ready freshmen in the country: he can play either guard spot and provide shot-creation, floor-spacing, playmaking and defense at a high level. He’s a nonstop competitor who’s going to help you win games. The more familiar teams get with him and the more they come to understand his reliability and winning impact, the more his stock should rise within the lottery. Wallace has continued to draw Jrue Holiday and Marcus Smart comparisons that feel fairly reasonable, and it’s easy to see him taking a similar path toward helping an NBA team early in his career. His floor is extremely high as a future contributor.

9. Warriors: Keyonte George, G, Baylor

Height: 6'4" | Weight: 185 | Age: 19 | Freshman

George started his college career with a series of strong performances and certainly looks the part as a lottery pick, as a gifted scorer with improved playmaking skills who feels comfortable with and without the ball. While he’s instinctually a volume scorer, increased role versatility gained from playing with other talented guards at Baylor should bolster his value in the pros, as he’s not exceptionally big or explosive for his position. The arrow seems to be pointing up here in the early part of the season, as George has slimmed down and begun to answer some of the questions scouts had about his conditioning and athleticism. He’s one of the most skilled, crafty guards in this group, and if he can find the right balance with his decision-making and turn in an efficient season, he could vault up a bit further than this, conceivably.

10. Heat: Dillon Mitchell, F, Texas

Height: 6'8" | Weight: 205 | Age: 19 | Freshman

I was highly impressed with Mitchell’s physical progression after going to see him a few weeks ago in Austin, and he continues to profile nicely as a high-flying energy forward somewhere in the vein of Jerami Grant. Whether Mitchell can follow the same type of skill trajectory Grant took after college is a fair question, but he should be able to impact games as a lob threat, rebounder and versatile defender who can switch and protect the basket when needed. He’s still raw offensively, and his scoring will likely hang on the quality of service he gets from his teammates this season, for better or worse. But there’s a clear pathway for Mitchell to add value as a modern four-man, particularly if his jump shot shows some progression.

11. Thunder: Ausar Thompson, G/F, Overtime Elite

Height: 6'7" | Weight: 205 | Age: 19

A tenacious defender and excellent athlete who has work to do as a jump shooter, Thompson isn’t as far behind his twin brother, Amen, in terms of perception as this mock draft might seem to indicate. However, he does face similar questions surrounding his advanced age, low level of competition and shooting struggles that will play a role in where he’s ultimately drafted. He’s a blur in transition and a willing on-ball stopper who should have a pathway to a role as long as he makes enough shots, and he’s known as a notorious worker, which will help teams feel secure in taking a chance on him. Thompson doesn’t quite have the same on-ball playmaking upside as his brother, but big wings who embrace the dirty work and compete are always useful. If he starts making more jumpers, watch out.

12. Jazz (from Timberwolves): G.G. Jackson, F, South Carolina

Height: 6'9" | Weight: 215 | Age: 17 | Freshman

Jackson reclassified to attend college a year early and is the youngest draft-eligible prospect on the NBA’s radar, which likely builds in some benefit of the doubt from scouts and perceived room for growth. He’s big, toolsy and agile, and he can shoot. But he’s also facing a big jump in level that will challenge him to make strides from an efficiency and shot selection standpoint. Jackson’s tools are good enough that his rebounding and defensive production should be more than sufficient in the end, but how he handles the learning curve will ultimately determine how high he warrants consideration in a pretty strong lottery class. Historically, prospects in his mold tend to rise over the course of the draft process, but expect some growing pains, too. If all goes well he could be an excellent energy big well-suited for the modern game.

13. Jazz (from 76ers): Brandon Miller, F, Alabama

Height: 6'9" | Weight: 200 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Miller passes the eye test physically, with great coordination and length at his size that have created some legitimate early-season buzz around the NBA. He can handle and pass pretty well and play either forward spot, with a projectable frame that will work in the pros. Miller’s shooting mechanics are a tad arduous, but he’s a capable threat from three when he has time to set his feet. There’s a caveat here in that he turns 20 next week, making him one of the oldest freshmen in the country, and his motor sometimes ran hot and cold in high school. The age factor may cap how high he can really rise in the lottery. But his skill set is unique enough to place him in these early conversations, making him a player worth monitoring closely.

14. Clippers: Rayan Rupert, SF, New Zealand Breakers (France)

Height: 6'6" | Weight: Not listed | Age: 18

Rupert is dealing with a wrist injury that appears will sideline him for a large chunk of the NBL season. He was off to a fairly encouraging start before getting hurt and remains arguably the most intriguing international-based prospect after Wembanyama, with a listed 7'3" wingspan, strong feel for the game and developing scoring chops and movement skills. Rupert can be quite disruptive with his length on the defensive end, something that should keep improving as he adds strength to his frame and gains experience. The key questions will likely hang on where his offensive skill level as a ball-handler and shooter is by the time we get to spring. But it would seem there’s a lot of reason for optimism here.

15. Knicks: Tyrese Proctor, PG, Duke

Height: 6'5" | Weight: 180 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Despite building up some excitement from scouts who saw Duke practice over the past couple months, Proctor started the season in poor form, although his second half against Kansas on Tuesday night hopefully indicates better things to come. I’m still pretty bullish on his overall talent level, and he’s a crucial part of his team, so he will get every opportunity to settle in and build his case as a lottery-level prospect. He has great size, plays hard and unselfishly, and can really defend on the perimeter. Much will hinge on how well he shoots it and how efficient he can be this season—Duke’s spacing hasn’t helped, but Proctor hasn’t been living at the rim. Some patience is in order here, but he’s going to have to play better to actually get drafted this high.

16. Knicks (from Wizards): Kris Murray, F, Iowa

Height: 6'8" | Weight: 225 | Age: 22 | Junior

While Murray isn’t quite the same caliber of prospect as his twin brother, Keegan, he does appear ready for a sizable step forward this season. He primarily impacts games as a scorer right now, but he’s a very good perimeter shooter with good positional size who continues to expand his offensive game. It remains to be seen whether he’ll sniff his brother’s elite level of college productivity—it’s not likely, but it’s not impossible—but the comparison element shouldn’t take away from Kris’s emergence as a quality prospect. Murray has a good skill framework for a combo forward, and his shooting acumen should be a big draw for interested teams. The question is whether he’s purely a steady floor spacer, or whether he can expand his game—and if the answer is the latter, Murray could rise from here.

17. Pacers: Dereck Lively, C, Duke

Height: 7'1" | Weight: 220 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Lively entered college with a lofty reputation, but his stock is on somewhat uneven footing in the early part of the season—he just returned from a calf injury and hasn’t been especially impactful in his minutes. He has elite size and profiles as a mobile rim protector, and there aren’t all that many guys like him, but teams are going to want to see production as his minutes increase and he gets acclimated to the college game. Basically, Lively has earned a reputation among scouts as a bit of a tease, and while he remains an interesting long-term prospect, it’s much harder to draft him (or any center) early in the first round without feeling confident that he’ll impact games in the near future. Again, it’s way too early to be extremely concerned, and Lively’s presumptive defensive impact will drive his value, not his scoring. This also may not be a very deep class in terms of bigs, which bolsters his case.

18. Kings: Terquavion Smith, G, NC State

Height: 6'4" | Weight: 160 | Age: 19 | Sophomore

Smith will be an interesting case study in how the NBA values undersized, bucket-getting combo guards, but he’s a very talented scorer who returned to college after an impressive freshman year. Teams were a bit concerned about his readiness for the next level, which presumably contributed to his decision to stay in school, but he played quite well at last year’s draft combine and could be one of the best players in college basketball this time around. If he takes another step forward, he has a pretty good chance to wind up in the first round.

19. Raptors: Brice Sensabaugh, G, Ohio State

Height: 6'6" | Weight: 235 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Sensabaugh enters the season as one of the most underrated freshmen in the country, something that figures to change as he gains exposure moving forward. He’s been coming off the bench to start the season, but he is Ohio State’s most talented scorer and figures to see his role increase. He supplies energy as a thickly built guard with shot-making skills and quality offensive feel, and he’s begun to slim down his frame a bit to positive effect. Sensabaugh was underrated nationally as a recruit, and this is an aggressive placement, perhaps, but he has a real chance to play his way firmly into the one-and-done conversation.

20. Pacers (from Cavs): Gradey Dick, SG, Kansas

Height: 6'7" | Weight: 200 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Although Kansas hasn’t been a one-and-done factory in recent years, Dick has looked pretty prepared for college so far, showcasing his quick shooting mechanics and a poised floor game. He is an above-average athlete who has the right type of frame to keep adding strength and play the wing in the NBA, and he should make enough shots and guard well enough to get on the floor. Dick isn’t the craftiest player in space, but he also doesn’t force many bad shots. He should continue to excel within Kansas’s structured offense. It’s not a foregone conclusion he’ll be ready for the NBA, but things seem to be trending that way in the early going.

21. Knicks (from Mavericks): Anthony Black, G, Arkansas

Height: 6'7" | Weight: 200 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Black is an interesting prospect due to his blend of positional size, passing ability, athleticism and feel. The upside is there for him to succeed as an oversized playmaker, and his understanding of how to play with teammates creates a good base. However, Black is not very good at scoring the ball yet in any facet of his game, which makes him a bit difficult to project—he’s not great at scoring in the paint, nor is he a great jump shooter. Whether or not he’s a viable first-round selection likely hinges on how big of an in-season improvement he can manage. If he can find ways to be efficient and pick his spots, it helps his cause quite a bit.

22. Grizzlies: Tyrese Hunter, PG, Texas

Height: 6'0" | Weight: 180 | Age: 19 | Sophomore

Hunter is one of my favorite college players—he is tough and consistent and plays with great composure for a teenager—but he’s going to have to battle the stigma surrounding smaller guards. And the role he’s in at Texas (splitting ballhandling duties much of the time) may not be a fully optimal platform for his draft stock. The intangibles here are easy to see, but some scouts still have questions about the quality of Hunter’s shooting and whether he’s a true point guard or an undersized combo. I personally think he winds up being able to run a team at the highest level as a viable backup at worst, but it’s still a bit unclear what the timeline is for that to happen. Hunter just turned 19 in August, so he’s basically the same age as a freshman, which suggests we should give him time to figure it out. For what it’s worth, he was quite good last night against Gonzaga, and a big year might be all it takes to convince people.

23. Hawks: Arthur Kaluma, F, Creighton

Height: 6'7" | Weight: 220 | Age: 20 | Sophomore

Kaluma was a popular breakout pick coming into the season and has tremendous physical tools for an NBA wing, with a long, strong frame that makes him hard to guard at the college level. He broke out over the final month of last season and will have to play through the weight of increased expectations on an improved Creighton team. Advanced stats didn’t favor him much last season, and as a high-usage scorer who’s not much of a playmaker for others, Kaluma is going to have to prove he can be efficient and make strides toward being a much more impactful defender. Still, if he plays to his potential, the first round is pretty viable.

24. Lakers (from Pelicans): Jalen Bridges, F, Baylor

Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 | Age: 21 | Junior

Bridges is off to a solid start and looks to have taken a meaningful step forward after transferring from West Virginia and slotting into a role that suits him well at Baylor. He was never a particularly consistent performer his first two years in college, but has begun to harness his physical capabilities and has the right tools to play on the wing in the NBA. He has more to prove moving forward, but his ability to space the floor and play viable defense should pique interest from scouts. Continued production is crucial for Bridges, but he has a platform to play his way into the first round this season if all goes well.

25. Suns: Jaime Jaquez, F, UCLA

Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 | Age: 21 | Senior

After playing through ankle injuries for most of last season, Jaquez returns to lead a potentially very good UCLA team and he still has the traits to be a useful NBA role player in the long run. Teams will hope to see a healthy Jaquez display the shot-making chops he showed during his sophomore season, and improvement in that area is critical for him. He’s quite reliable in other areas, as a solid positional rebounder and tough defender with size who makes small plays on both ends of the floor. While he may profile best as a bench piece in the pros, Jaquez does just enough to be a difference-maker, and his strong intangibles will help him maintain interest from teams. A true breakout year could lift him into the first round.

26. Jazz: Marcus Sasser, G, Houston

Height: 6'2" | Weight: 195 | Age: 22 | Senior

As one of the best guards in college basketball and someone who very well might have been drafted last year if not for injury, Sasser seems to have an inside track at a favorable spot in the draft hierarchy. He is an excellent shooter, can play on and off the ball, has a good frame for a combo guard and left a good impression during last year’s predraft process. Houston is on the shortlist of the best teams in the country, and Sasser should have a strong platform over the course of the year to showcase his ability. Teams will want to see him score effectively in the paint at his size, but his perimeter game and solid defense should help ensure a pathway to being a useful reserve, at worst.

27. Hornets (from Nuggets): Colby Jones, G/F, Xavier

Height: 6'6" | Weight: 205 | Age: 21 | Junior

Jones is one of my favorite potential role guys in this class, projecting as sort of a gadget player in the NBA with the size to defend multiple positions. He came on strong at the end of last season and is currently dealing with an ankle injury, but he contributes across the box score in a way that also helps drive winning. High-feel players in Jones’s vein tend to be well-suited for the modern game, with its emphasis on smart ball movement and versatility. Jones will have to shore up his three-point shooting to a passable place—he was sub-30% from distance in his first two years of college—but some improvement in that department might really boost his stock.

28. Bulls (from Blazers): Kel’el Ware, C, Oregon

Height: 7'0" | Weight: 225 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Although Ware picked up some hype over the course of the past year as a potential one-and-done player, he’s pretty divisive amongst NBA scouts. Some people are highly intrigued by his size, mobility and tools, while others are turned off by his inconsistent motor and physicality, and question how long it will take him to be playable in the NBA. He’s been coming off the bench for Oregon in the early going and has to earn minutes in a crowded frontcourt. He is a potentially solid rim protector and has some shooting touch, so the first round case is there, but Ware has more to prove before vaulting him up the board, I think.

29. Rockets (from Bucks): Sidy Cissoko, G/F, G League Ignite

Height: 6'6" | Weight: 200 | Age: 18

I’m curious to see where Cissoko is at developmentally by the end of the season, considering the history of Ignite players’ improvement trajectories. He’s a big wing with playmaking skills and a good frame for the NBA, but he’s still learning to consistently impact the game and he doesn’t have one true high-level skill to market at this point in time. While still a bit raw with the ball in his hands, Cissoko offers positive role-player traits: he’s unselfish, he should be a passable shooter, he’s a pretty good athlete and he plays hard on the defensive end. But right now he’s still more of an idea than anything else.

30. Pacers (from Celtics): Leonard Miller, F, G League Ignite

Height: 6'10" | Weight: 210 | Age: 18

While Miller is still pretty unpolished, it’s hard to deny that the physical tools and positional size he brings to the table give him an interesting base to build on. He wasn’t ready for the draft last year and made a smart decision to join Ignite, where he’ll have to learn to consistently impact games without the ball in his hands and make open shots. Miller has some guard skills, but his professional future likely hinges on his ability to transition to power forward, where he should be able to more easily create mismatches and apply his strengths. He’s off to a reasonably good start in the G League, and if he makes big strides, the first round may await.