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Sports Illustrated

Sport

Jeremy Woo

NBA Mock Draft: Biggest Risers and Fallers

NBA Dyson Daniels Jaden Ivey Wendell Moore Pelicans Spurs Bennedict Mathurin Dejounte Murray Jabari Smith Jr Jalen Duren

Welcome back to draft season, which is more or less in full effect as the April 24 early-entry deadline approaches and things have begun to churn behind the scenes. It’s going to be a long two months or so, and by nature the draft is a fluid entity, so keep in mind a lot of these projections are going to change. But with college hoops wrapped up and NBA teams seriously planning for the offseason, we’re getting into the fun part of this process, and the level of reported clarity on players, teams and picks will continue to improve as we get deeper into the calendar.

The draft lottery is set for May 17, with the combine taking place shortly afterward. As in past years, this mock draft will increasingly take team fit into account once we know the draft order and tangible information becomes available as to what may happen. For now, the sequence of the mock was determined using the final regular-season standings, and I used the chalk lottery order rather than running a simulation. Keep in mind that the order also hinges on the results of Friday’s play-in games between the Cavs and Hawks and Clippers and Pelicans, respectively: If a nine-seed wins, several ties will also need to be broken by the league office before the lottery, before the order is finalized.

As usual, this mock draft aims to predict what the draft would look like if it took place on a given day. My projections are heavily informed by intel from around the NBA and ongoing conversations with executives, scouts and others, in addition to my own personal evaluations of players, which in many cases date back years. Not that these are *not* player rankings: For that, take a look at our Big Board (which will be due for a major update after the early-entry deadline).

1. Rockets: Jabari Smith Jr., F, Auburn

Height: 6'10" | Weight: 220 | Age: 18 | Freshman

As was the case for much of the season, Smith should be viewed as the favorite to go No. 1, with a versatile skill set and major upside. Players with his combination of size and athletic ability have no business shooting the ball with his level of ease and range, and his shotmaking should immediately translate to the NBA. He’s not going to be a player who wastes dribbles, and his handle isn’t a strong part of his game, but as he adds strength and skill, expect his interior scoring and comfort creating shots to expand. He should also be a plus defender, with the length and agility to defend wings and bigs. Factoring in Smith’s youth (he turns 19 next month), strong competitive makeup and work ethic, he’s the prospect in this draft class I’d be most afraid of passing up. His jumper and shooting touch are special, and there’s a pretty sound foundation here for future stardom.

The Rockets have loaded up on young guards and, regardless of where they land in the top four, should be in position to pick from among the top frontcourt players. Smith wouldn’t be a perfect fit with Jalen Green, but he’d be tough to pass on here. He’s the safest bet as well as the youngest of the draft’s top prospects, and you can argue his ceiling is also the highest. The confluence of those factors makes him the pretty clear-cut top prospect in the minds of many around the league.

2. Magic: Paolo Banchero, F, Duke

Height: 6'10" | Weight: 250 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Banchero is the most polished offensive player in the draft, with a unique mix of power and skill that lets him operate all over the floor as a playmaking fulcrum. He’s an outstanding passer, and if he makes jumpers consistently, Banchero has pretty big upside. While his shooting touch escapes him at times and he sometimes overcomplicates his decisions, he finished on a positive note and effectively carried the load for Duke in the NCAA tournament. The bigger question is what type of defender Banchero will be in the NBA, as his level of engagement and physicality on that end comes and goes, and he’ll need to be consistently passable. But his feel for scoring and ability to find teammates should take him a long way. If Banchero’s shotmaking and defense trend up, there should be All-Star-caliber seasons in his future.

This is a tricky spot for the Magic, with Smith off the board and Orlando picking from the next group of prospects. What it does here could accelerate an inflection point with its roster, as Mo Bamba is about to hit restricted free agency, Jonathan Isaac hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony all need backcourt minutes. Logic suggests the Magic pick another frontcourt player, but no matter which direction they go, something will have to give in terms of playing time. In this scenario, presuming Orlando plans to keep Bamba, I’d lean Banchero as the pick here, considering his ability to operate all over the floor and make teammates better with his passing.

3. Pistons: Chet Holmgren, F/C, Gonzaga

Height: 7'0" | Weight: 190 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Holmgren inspires a wider range of opinions in league circles than any player in the draft, due in part to the fact his mix of skills and frame are unconventional, but also because his numbers were so prolific. He’s a promising defensive prospect, with the size and length to protect the basket and instincts that have mostly compensated for his lack of strength. He’s uniquely skilled for his size and should be a reliable floor-spacer who can make plays for teammates in a pinch, with upside attached to the possibility of offensive growth. He was a more limited player when facing opponents that could negate his physical advantages, and NBA teams continue to closely parse his film from those games. Skinny players have succeeded in the NBA, but it’s tough to extract the concerns about his body type from the eval, as his success hinges on whether those gifts will allow him to dominate against grown men. But if everything goes right, Holmgren could be a legit defensive anchor who can be used in a range of ways on the other end.

In this scenario, the Pistons would have to think hard about Jaden Ivey, who would bolster the league’s third-worst offense and make their team much more athletic. But drafting him would create a ballhandling timeshare dynamic with Cade Cunningham, and even with the latter’s unselfish nature, Detroit would have to feel comfortable with that fit and believe in Ivey’s shooting continuing to improve. Holmgren’s early offensive contributions will largely depend on him getting the ball in the right spots, and he’d strongly benefit from playing with a passer like Cunningham. He’d also enhance the Pistons’ defense (particularly considering Jerami Grant is a trade candidate).

4. Thunder: Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue

Height: 6'4" | Weight: 200 | Age: 20 | Sophomore

The pronounced highs and lows of Ivey’s breakout season gave the NBA plenty of food for thought, but he’s maintained his status as the presumptive first guard off the board and will be in the mix for teams at the very top of the draft. His end-to-end speed and explosiveness on the ball portend major potential as a scorer, and while not a natural point guard, Ivey flashed passing chops over the course of the year. It’s easy to imagine him putting up big scoring numbers early in his career if placed in a transition and space-oriented NBA context. He has the ability to be a very good defender when he tries, he’s shot the three well enough to think he keeps improving, and if he can slow down the game for himself mentally while still attacking at a breakneck pace, Ivey can be a star. There’s risk here if that doesn’t happen, and considering all he needs to add skill-wise, but the top of the lottery is often about upside, and he offers that in spades as one of the most exciting players in the draft.

While the Thunder have young guards in place and might prefer to pick from among the top bigs, their rebuild is positionally fluid and more concerned with collecting talent. In this scenario, Ivey makes sense as the choice as the biggest swing on the board. And while OKC would presumably find a way to make minutes work in the short term, his selection would likely reignite trade rumors surrounding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

5. Pacers: Keegan Murray, F, Iowa

Height: 6'8" | Weight: 215 | Age: 21 | Sophomore

The trend in recent drafts has been that at least one older prospect crashes the lottery: Murray, who turns 22 in August, will take that mantle this year. He enters off a monstrous season at Iowa bearing an absurd statistical case that strongly suggests he can help an NBA team next year as a forward who can defend multiple positions and score from all over the floor. While we haven’t seen Murray do much playmaking for teammates, considering his insane trajectory, you can’t quite rule out the possibility his game expands further. There have been some critiques of his defense, given he’s not a true rim protector or perimeter stopper, but considering his impressive block rates and that a year ago he was viewed as a good defensive prospect, Murray logically projects to be above-average on that end. He does a lot of things at a high level already and fits on a lot of rosters with his versatility.

The Pacers jump-started their rebuild at the deadline by trading for Tyrese Haliburton and could move on from several established vets in the offseason, giving them flexibility with their pick. But Murray fits in Indiana from a positional/skill set perspective, and as an NBA-ready player who matches the timeline of Indiana’s core.

6. Trail Blazers: Shaedon Sharpe, SG, Kentucky

Height: 6'5" | Weight: 200 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Sharpe has put himself in position to be a lottery pick without playing a single college minute, which would be a loss for Kentucky but a pretty nice outcome for him. While understandably not a very polished or experienced prospect relative to his peers—he will be playing catchup from a developmental minutes perspective—Sharpe is a good athlete with legitimate scoring upside and projectable shot-creating ability. In high school he had a tendency to settle for jumpers rather than consistently finish at the rim, which builds some risk of inefficiency into his profile. But he also excels at creating separation for his shot, and if he’s eventually able to make threes at a high clip, Sharpe could be a high-level starter. He was generally an inattentive defender and has some lazy habits when the play doesn’t involve him, but he’s far from the only teenage prospect to have those issues. Presuming he shows well in workouts, Sharpe could feasibly crack the top five based on upside.

Portland has put itself in an interesting position going into the summer, likely holding two lottery picks, but also intending to accelerate its rebuild and get Damian Lillard back to the playoffs. Whether that means the Blazers will look to use these picks as trade chips remains to be seen, but their direction bears close monitoring and may have a large role to play in how the lottery eventually plays out. In a scenario where Portland decides to use these picks to go young and shore up the roster for the future, Sharpe’s scoring potential would warrant strong consideration.

7. Kings: Bennedict Mathurin, SG, Arizona

Height: 6'6" | Weight: 210 | Age: 19 | Sophomore

After more than delivering on his billing as a popular preseason breakout candidate, Mathurin will be in the mid-to-late lottery mix for teams in need of wing help. He’s one of the better run-jump athletes in the draft and a capable three-point shooter, and he expanded his playmaking while thriving in Arizona’s up-tempo system. Mathurin isn’t the most intuitive player, but it still feels like he’s coming into his own. He displayed confidence and character while coming up big in some notable spots over the course of the season. His tools won’t be what hold him back, and in conjunction with his scoring potential should make him an enticing option for teams that want to play fast and already have playmakers in place. He’s also young for a sophomore (he doesn’t turn 20 until June), which makes his individual development over the past year that much more encouraging.

Mathurin’s off-ball scoring punch should appeal to the Kings, who are committed to De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis and need quality on the wings. Mathurin’s shooting and explosiveness make him a better fit here than Johnny Davis or Dyson Daniels, and with the Kings perennially attempting to make the playoffs, it might also matter that he’s much closer to contributing than AJ Griffin.

8. Pelicans (from Lakers): Dyson Daniels, G/F, G League Ignite

Height: 6'6" | Weight: 200 | Age: 19

It became clear early in the season that Daniels was the Ignite’s best prospect, and considering his quality production as one of the youngest players in the G League, he profiles as one of the most NBA-ready prospects in the draft while having just turned 19 years old. Daniels has consistently displayed mature feel and decision-making skills, and due to the size of his frame, he may eventually be able to moonlight at four positions on offense while also defending those spots on the other end, which is exceedingly rare. He already rebounds, defends and makes plays for teammates at a very high level for a teenager. Maximizing that versatility is contingent on the continued improvement of his jumper, which is more of a stiff, set shot, but seemed to be trending toward passability by the end of the season. It’s hard to see a player as young as Daniels with such a diversity of strengths failing, and while he doesn’t fit into traditional positional boxes, an imaginative franchise should be ecstatic to draft him.

Daniels would be a fascinating addition for the Pelicans, who will get to keep this pick (acquired three years ago in the Anthony Davis trade) after the Lakers’ season collapsed and have an opportunity to add to a young core of talent that’s trending in a good direction. Put your mad scientist hat on and imagine Daniels playing in super-sized, multiple-ballhandler lineups next to Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson and Herb Jones.

9. Spurs: Johnny Davis, SG, Wisconsin

Height: 6'4" | Weight: 195 | Age: 20 | Sophomore

Davis put himself on the map as a lottery talent with dominant early-season play and seemed to peak in early January before minor injuries and the wear and tear of the season took a toll on his efficiency and ability to create shots for himself. He was the lone focal point for opposing defenses all season, and a midseason dip in performance led to his trending out of the top-five conversation. His stock seems to have leveled out in the mid-to-late lottery range, but considering how high his highs were, there may now be value for teams to glean if he slips. Davis is an exceptional midrange scorer and strong defender with stellar competitive makeup. He’ll need to expand his game attacking the rim and shooting from distance, but the pieces are all there for him to become a starting-caliber two-guard who makes plays in the interest of winning games, not chasing stats.

The rebuilding Spurs, who have traditionally valued midrange scoring where other teams have shirked those shots, would seem to be a natural fit for Davis. His game is more rugged and stylistically much different from Dejounte Murray and 2021 first-rounder Josh Primo, and he’ll likely benefit from pairing with other playmakers. San Antonio doesn’t expressly need a guard, but Davis’s toughness and intangibles would make a lot of sense if the Spurs are unable to pick from among the top tier of bigs, although centers Jalen Duren and Mark Williams might be in play here in this scenario.

10. Wizards: AJ Griffin, G/F, Duke

Height: 6'6" | Weight: 220 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Griffin is one of the trickier projected first-rounders to get a handle on: Considering his age (he doesn’t turn 19 until August) and impressive shooting splits, he’s clearly intriguing, but there’s debate around the league as to how early he ought to be drafted. There were games in which he looked like Duke’s best player, but also ones where he contributed little. He’s a bit reliant on taking and making tough shots, but it’s certainly impressive when he makes them, and if he’s able to improve his handle and playmaking and become more viable on-ball, he could be pretty dangerous. Teams are a bit concerned with his lack of defensive consistency and average foot speed and explosiveness. Griffin’s youth leaves room for improvement in all areas, and the fact he missed time with injuries in high school and simply hadn’t logged as many minutes as some of his peers is also a factor in the eval. If you believe in the upside, you can argue for him early, but the 10–20 range feels more reasonable considering what he actually did in college, and the time it will likely take him to become a reliable contributor.

The Wizards have been navigating roster limbo in an attempt to keep Bradley Beal happy and around for the long haul, stuck somewhere between a rebuild and the fringes of the playoffs. Considering all the frontcourt depth they’ve assembled, adding perimeter talent seems like the likeliest outcome if they keep their pick at this spot.

11. Trail Blazers (from Pelicans): Jeremy Sochan, F, Baylor

Height: 6'8" | Weight: 220 | Age: 18

Sochan is a defensive savant with some offensive upside who looks like one of the draft’s most fascinating blank-slate development opportunities. A lunchpail mentality and solid physical profile should make Sochan a building block on that end of the floor, where his smarts, motor and matchup versatility could earn him early minutes while his individual offense catches up. While not a big-time scorer, he’s demonstrated playmaking ability and advanced ball skills, and makes teammates better with quick, unselfish decisions. If Sochan’s jumper makes enough progress, he should be a starting-caliber forward for a long time, if not a star. In recent drafts, versatile, skilled forwards with plus tools like Patrick Williams and Scottie Barnes have made significant leaps in the predraft process, and it’s not crazy to think Sochan might follow suit into the top 10 if his workouts and interviews go well.

If the Pelicans lose Friday, their pick stays in the lottery. If it beats the odds and jumps into the top four, New Orleans keeps it, otherwise it goes to the Blazers. As previously mentioned, Portland’s direction with two potential lottery picks is somewhat unclear right now, but it should have a wide range of options. Considering the state of the Blazers’ roster, adding a versatile player like Sochan who upgrades the frontcourt and might be able to help as a rookie makes sense in theory.

12. Knicks: Jalen Duren, C, Memphis

Height: 6'11" | Weight: 250 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Duren may still be the first center off the board, but considering the lack of need for true bigs amongst lottery teams and the fact that some execs have been lukewarm on him all season, identifying landing spots is a tad tricky. It feels more likely he’s off the board in the mid-to-late lottery. He has high-end physical tools and he’s the youngest prospect projected to be drafted, but his feel is demonstrably a bit iffy, and role-wise he profiles as a bruiser with some skill potential and not a dynamic offensive threat. There have been questions about his motor dating back to high school, which is less than ideal for a player whose productivity likely hinges on effort and energy. Teams in need of a long-term big will look in his direction, but he’ll need to convince people in workouts that he has room to add skills and that he’s worthy of building around.

Per usual, it’s kind of anyone’s guess which direction the Knicks go in the draft. With Mitchell Robinson set to hit free agency and having plateaued in terms of production, it might behoove New York to draft and develop a younger big who offers more untapped upside and fills a similar role.

13. Hornets: Mark Williams, C, Duke

Height: 7'0" | Weight: 240 | Age: 20 | Sophomore

After a strong close to the season, Williams seems likely to receive consideration from late-lottery teams and has a feasible chance of leapfrogging Jalen Duren as the first center drafted. He has exceptional size and length for his position and the ability to be a high-level rim protector in time, with powerful two-foot leaping ability and good instincts and hands as a rebounder. Williams also runs the floor well and should continue to finish plays efficiently. He has a lot left to learn in terms of positional nuances but seems to understand his role and his limitations, and could wind up as a quality starter, though he’s likely not a franchise-changer. He checks all the right boxes for a rim-running five who adds value on both ends.

The Hornets have been in need of a defensive anchor and lob target to pair with LaMelo Ball, and have thrown darts at a range of bigs in recent drafts with minimal returns. Williams can change games with his size and motor and would be a highly logical option for Charlotte if he’s on the board.

14. Hawks: Ochai Agbaji, SG, Kansas

Height: 6'5" | Weight: 215 | Age: 21 | Senior

After leading Kansas to a national title, Agbaji figures to come off the board as early as the late lottery, viewed by teams as a reliable role player who will benefit from pairing with NBA-quality passers. Though he’s a little short for an NBA wing and turns 22 next week, Agbaji has a huge frame that will play up physically in the pros and help him match up across multiple positions. He’s a dangerous standstill shooter who operates off one or two dribbles, and while it’s hard to expect him to become much of a playmaker, he should be able to boost his team’s offense in a supporting role. Agbaji isn’t a very complicated player to assess, and given he should be able to contribute as a rookie, he should appeal to playoff-hopeful teams in this part of the draft.

The Hawks may not have a pronounced need on draft night, with an expensive roster that’s presently covered at every spot. Agbaji is a good bet to produce on his rookie contract and would fit as a supporting player next to Trae Young.

15. Thunder (from Clippers): Malaki Branham, SG, Ohio State

Height: 6'5" | Weight: 180 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Branham came on very strong over the final month of the season and played his way into the draft, likely off the board somewhere in the mid first round considering his youth and scoring chops. Branham isn’t particularly big for his position and will need to get stronger, but he shoots it naturally and flashed more on-ball ability than expected this season. There’s still a bit of risk in his profile, considering the relatively small production sample, low volume of three-point attempts and average defensive contributions. But Branham has put himself in a good position to turn pro and looks like a worthwhile project for a team that can be patient as he comes into his own. He came into the season somewhat unheralded, and ended it doing quite a bit of heavy lifting for Ohio State.

As it stands, the Thunder have three first-round picks and will have the capacity to take chances. This scenario sees them walking away with two guards, which is probably a tad unrealistic, but given how many prospects are already on the roster and the potential for trade flexibility, it’s a little too early to be worried about fit in projecting this pick. And if the Clippers lose Friday and miss the playoffs, it’ll move up to the 14th pick.

16. Rockets (from Nets): Kendall Brown, F, Baylor

Height: 6'8" | Weight: 205 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Brown ended the season trending downward, as his offensive limitations made it harder for Baylor to rely on him when it mattered, which NBA teams noticed. Although his upside as a scorer isn’t immense, which may cap him out as a role player, he remains a prospect of interest due to his size, high-level athleticism, and above-average feel as a passer and defender. Brown shot 34% from three on just 41 attempts, but his shot isn’t viewed as broken, and building his confidence in that department should be a developmental priority. He’s still just 18 years old and looks like a worthwhile project for a team that already has creative players in place.

The Rockets loaded up on scorers in last year’s draft, and what direction they go with this pick likely hinges on where their lottery pick falls. They have a long enough timeline to take a shot on a guy like Brown and let him work things out in a low-stakes role.

17. Pacers (from Cavs): Walker Kessler, C, Auburn

Height: 7'1" | Weight: 245 | Age: 20 | Sophomore

After transferring to Auburn and rejuvenating his status as a prospect, Kessler figures to come off the board somewhere in the first round, as one of the more accomplished rim protectors in the draft. He owned a jaw-dropping 19.1% block rate this season and recorded seven or more blocks nine different times, which is a first-round case unto itself. Kessler is a pretty good athlete for his size and cuts an imposing figure around the basket, and while he may not suddenly transform into Dikembe Mutombo in the faster-paced NBA game, he’s reliable and should offer defensive stability. If he continues to improve his three-point shooting and adds some strength, Kessler could conceivably be a useful role player in the vein of late-career Brook Lopez.

This pick was acquired from Cleveland in the Caris LeVert trade and is lottery-protected, so if the Cavaliers lose Friday’s play-in game and miss the playoffs, they’d keep the selection this year and defer Indiana’s rights to 2023. Otherwise, the Pacers will have two first-round picks in hand. Considering the possibility they eventually move on from Myles Turner, drafting a long-term replacement here makes some sense.

18. Timberwolves: Jaden Hardy, SG, G League Ignite

Height: 6'4" | Weight: 200 | Age: 19

It feels like Hardy’s stock has leveled out a bit entering the predraft process: He ended the season on a better note, and his production in the G League looks much more favorable when placed against the bodies of work of many of his peers who chose to play in college. He has major areas to iron out in terms of shot selection, efficiency and defense, but Hardy is highly skilled, was terrific in high school, and is a much easier bet to place if it doesn’t require a top-10 pick. He’s a quality shooter and has a realistic chance of becoming a useful sixth-man type combo guard who provides scoring punch. The perceived upside that once made him a projected top-five pick may have been misplaced, but there’s still a gifted player here with a chance to piece things together as he matures.

Minnesota took a big step forward this season and has assembled some depth on a roster that skews young. With no obvious fit on the board here, taking a shot on Hardy as a potential value pick might be a good option.

19. Bulls: E.J. Liddell, PF, Ohio State

Height: 6'7" | Weight: 240 | Age: 21 | Junior

While Liddell isn’t a flashy player, he’s proven himself a reliable component of successful Ohio State teams and fits an NBA-viable mold as a productive-yet-undersized power forward who can space the floor, rebound and supply toughness. He trimmed down his body this season and continued improving as a shooter, and while he doesn’t project as a future star, Liddell has the makings of a quality role player at a reasonable cost on his rookie contract. There’s a range of opinion on him—some teams view him as more of an early second-rounder—but he’s a good bet to deliver value.

Chicago has assembled a good group of guards but needs frontcourt depth moving forward. Liddell fits the bill in a lot of ways here and could be a bench player next season.

20. Spurs (from Raptors): Wendell Moore, G/F, Duke

Height: 6'5" | Weight: 215 | Age: 20 | Junior

Perhaps overshadowed by the other projected first-rounders on his team, Moore has become the rare underrated Duke prospect. He rediscovered his confidence and took a step forward in most every way imaginable this season, improving his body and mobility, shooting with more consistency, and emerging as a secondary handler who can play in ball screens. The Blue Devils became more of a half-court team as the year went on, which didn’t play to Moore’s strengths as a transition player, but his feel for the game and all-around skill set should play up in a real way in the NBA. There’s still some trepidation amongst scouts over his past struggles, but it helps that Moore is a young junior who has yet to turn 21. If you buy his breakout, he looks like an obvious first-round prospect who should play in the league for a long time.

San Antonio acquired this pick from Toronto for Thaddeus Young at the trade deadline and will have three first-round picks to work with. Moore makes sense for their style of play and could contribute immediately.

21. Nuggets: Tari Eason, F, LSU

Height: 6'8" | Weight: 215 | Age: 20 | Sophomore

Eason broke out after transferring from Cincinnati, emerging as a highly productive player in the SEC despite coming off the bench the entire season. He’s a good athlete with some capacity to shoot threes, and excellent when driving to his right, but he’s otherwise a fairly limited offensive player who makes questionable decisions and can be selfish. He made a ton of defensive plays for LSU, although those numbers were likely inflated by tempo and style of play. On the flipside, Eason was extremely foul-prone and undisciplined at times. If he shoots it better and delivers on his potential defensively, he could be a pretty useful stretch forward. He’s a polarizing player to scout, with bad habits and frustrating moments, but at some point his overall statistical case is good enough that he warrants a first-round pick. There’s a risk-reward proposition here.

While Eason comes with some risk, he’s an interesting project for a team that can afford to take a gamble. The Nuggets are stable, share the ball and could use another forward off the bench—this could be a cushy landing spot for Eason to try to figure things out.

22. Grizzlies (from Jazz): TyTy Washington, G, Kentucky

Height: 6'3" | Weight: 200 | Age: 20 | Freshman

Another of the more polarizing first-round prospects, Washington played on a bad ankle for his final two months and struggled mightily, throwing his stock into flux. He played pretty well in the first half of the season and was starting to produce in conference play before his injury, but even then, there was some skepticism circulating surrounding the translatability of his strengths. Washington played his freshman year at 20 years old, making him closer in age to a sophomore or junior, and he isn’t remarkably athletic, relying more on craft and a streaky jump shot in lieu of putting pressure on the rim. Kentucky played him in more of a combo role, which limited his time making plays for teammates, but his overall results were mixed for most of the season, casting doubt on whether he could sneak into the lottery. As things stand Washington will need a strong predraft process to move up a guard-heavy draft, and his range more likely starts in the mid-teens.

Memphis has drafted well in recent years and has two first-rounders to use, with this pick finally conveying from Utah in the Mike Conley trade. With the talent level arguably flattening out after the first dozen picks or so, there should be value on the board in this range of the draft.

23. Nets (from 76ers): Blake Wesley, G, Notre Dame

Height: 6'5" | Weight: 185 | Age: 19 | Freshman

A three-star recruit who arrived in college with little fanfare, Wesley unexpectedly built a one-and-done case and is expected to come off the board somewhere in the first round, though his chances at the lottery may have been dashed by a poor close to the season. He’s a terrific athlete with slashing ability who more or less carried Notre Dame to the NCAA tournament despite his flaws, which certainly counts for something. Wesley isn’t a natural point guard, nor does he have a catch-and-shoot skill set to play off-ball, so it will take some imagination and a strong player development staff to get the most out of him, and he likely will benefit from time in the G League. But he does some things as a scorer that are hard to teach and considering he just turned 19, Wesley is a viable option in the first round, though there are a glut of guards he’ll need to beat out to move up from here.

The Nets picked up this draft pick unprotected in the James Harden–for–Ben Simmons trade, and also have the option to defer it to next year, a decision they don’t have to expedite. What they choose to do with it could be fascinating, and taking on a project they don’t have to rely on for immediate contributions might make sense.

24. Spurs (from Celtics): Patrick Baldwin Jr., F, Milwaukee

Height: 6'9" | Weight: 220 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Baldwin enters the spring battling the stigma from one of the weirdest college seasons in recent memory, particularly from a player who was viewed as a lottery pick entering the year. After choosing to play for his father in the Horizon League, Baldwin became exceedingly difficult for teams to scout, appearing in just 11 games due to injuries and COVID-19 and mustering very little production on a team that didn’t have much talent. There’s plenty of room for him to stabilize his stock with good workouts and interviews—he’s tall and an excellent shooter, which continues to pique interest—but teams are all over the board on him and his range is extremely wide as a result. The upside is there, but the checkered health history, his lack of physicality and the sporadic on-court success are concerning to teams.

Considering how hard it is to find players with his size and skill set, it’s arguably still worth taking a shot on Baldwin in the first round, but it’s a more palatable proposition for a rebuilding team with multiple picks. The Spurs are one of those teams.

25. Bucks: Trevor Keels, SG, Duke

Height: 6'4" | Weight: 220 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Presuming Keels and Wendell Moore come off the board as projected, Duke could produce five first-rounders, though Keels has the foggiest case among them. He’s got a huge frame, plays with poise and had some impressive moments as a freshman, but there were also games in which his jumper didn’t fall and he didn’t produce much. The idea here in the long term is something like a poor man’s Malcolm Brogdon, as a jumbo combo guard who can play on and off the ball and impact the game in several ways. It helps Keels doesn’t turn 19 until August, but he’s a ways from being NBA-ready, and there’s a case for him to stay at Duke another year. If he stays in the draft, he should be in the mix in the 20s.

The Bucks haven’t kept a first-round pick since 2018, and many of their future firsts belong to other teams (the Pelicans control their picks from ’24 to ’27), so this is an opportunity to add young talent on a long-term contract while still contending.

26. Mavericks: MarJon Beauchamp, SF, G League Ignite

Height: 6'6" | Weight: 200 | Age: 21

There’s been some ongoing debate as to whether Beauchamp is the second or third best Ignite prospect, but considering the fact he turns 22 this year and wasn’t wholly convincing as a shooter, playmaker, or defender, I’d be cautious. He did have some strong showings in the G League and is a more viable option in the late first round, but considering he’s much closer in age to the players at that level than his draft-eligible teammates, there has to be a higher standard here. Beauchamp is a terrific athlete with size on the wing and looks the part, but he’s playing catchup in terms of competitive minutes for a guy his age and might be a sink-or-swim case in the pros next year.

The Mavericks are pretty thin on young talent and could certainly use this pick to take a swing. It’s hard to assume Beauchamp will be NBA-ready, but he’d be a fit as an extra wing option.

27. Warriors: Bryce McGowens, SG, Nebraska

Height: 6'7" | Weight: 180 | Age: 19 | Freshman

McGowens put up decent numbers on a bad Nebraska team, showcasing his ability to score the ball but also how far he had to go in other areas. He’s tall, long and has good instincts, but struggles to shoot the three and doesn’t have much of an off-ball skill set. The ball sticks in his hands a bit too much when he does have it, and his shot selection was selfish at times, though to be fair, the environment he was in might be partially to blame. McGowens also didn’t offer much defensively. Still, the demand for oversize shot creators (and the rarity) makes him a viable candidate in the late first round, and a project who will likely need G League time in order to earn minutes next year.

The Warriors have successfully developed role players in the G League, but have generally been intent on using their first-round picks to take big swings on upside (and cultivate the type of talent they can’t dig up in free agency). Taking a shot on a less-proven guy like McGowens makes sense for them here.

28. Heat: Josh Minott, F, Memphis

Height: 6'8" | Weight: 205 | Age: 19 | Freshman

It feels very much worth noting that there was a stretch of time in January when some scouts felt like Minott had a case as Memphis’s best long-term prospect, ahead of Jalen Duren. That doesn’t mean Minott is going to shockingly usurp Duren in the lottery, but it also illustrates the level of latent upside here, despite the fact he was gradually phased out of relevant minutes as the season went on. Minott has size, length, passing feel and a chance to be quite versatile at his size, making him a candidate to rise in the predraft process as teams get more familiar with him. He’s not a viable jump shooter yet, but his good moments were pretty impressive, if somewhat scarce. The eternal demand for size and length could boost Minott into the draft picture, and he’d likely come off the board in the second round at worst. This is a situation that bears monitoring due to the range of outcomes.

The Heat have done so well mining the undrafted market for talent that it’s easy to see them flipping this pick at some point, but they do tend to target upside when they use their first-rounders. Minott’s tools and two-way potential would make him an interesting player for Miami to work with long term, considering their success with player development.

29. Grizzlies: Nikola Jović, F, Mega Basket

Height: 6'10" | Weight: 210 | Age: 18

Jović is one of a few truly intriguing names in a weak international class, as a big playmaking forward with feasible NBA upside. He was a bit of a mixed bag this season but produced some intriguing performances, and his passing and ball skills make him a viable option, particularly if he stays overseas another year or two. Jović is not especially efficient yet, and he’s a very streaky jump shooter, but he was young for his level, and it’s hard to find guys his size with his skill level. The bigger issue is he’s not all that athletic and struggles defensively, something he’ll have to figure out in order to stay on the floor as an NBA regular.

Memphis has multiple firsts but doesn’t necessarily need two rookies on the roster, given the young talent already in the fold and in need of minutes. In this scenario, they take the international route with this second selection.

30. Thunder (from Suns): Christian Koloko, C, Arizona

Height: 7'1" | Weight: 230 | Age: 21 | Junior

A native of Cameroon, Koloko was a late-blooming prospect who saw his game take off after adding significant strength over the course of his time at Arizona. While not extremely physical or skilled, he was one of the best rim protectors in college basketball this season and offers some untapped upside as a mobile defensive anchor. Koloko is light on his feet with good instincts on that end of the floor and athletic enough to finish easy baskets and fill a simple role offensively. His size and length are game-changing, and he offers a bit more upside than your typical big man flier in this range of the draft. If his defense plays up, he probably hangs on to an NBA role.

The Thunder have three first-round picks and don’t have a developmental center on the roster. In this scenario, they go that direction here after missing on the top bigs in the lottery.