Ripping open the Mailbag as we inch toward the first day of training camp . . .
If not Miami, give me a viable option for Damian Lillard?—Stephen, Fort Worth
Right now, the Heat are the Blazers’ only option. I’ve been checking in with teams I believed might be interested for weeks and have not picked up a whiff of intrigue from any of them. The combination of Lillard’s contract (four years and $175 million remaining) and Portland’s asking price (more significant than the Tyler Herro/first-round-picks-centric package Miami is offering) has left the Heat as the lone suitor.
For now.
Among the reasons Portland has not made a move with Lillard—and why I think it’s possible, even likely, that Lillard is on the Blazers roster when training camps open in a few weeks—is because Joe Cronin and Co. believe a market will emerge. And they may be right. What will the 76ers’ priorities be if or when they move James Harden? What if the Timberwolves suddenly put Karl-Anthony Towns on the table? Competition might be the nudge Miami needs to beef up its offer.
Let me toss out another scenario: Let’s say the Thunder get off to a fast start. Oklahoma City has a franchise guard (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), a fast-improving playmaker (Josh Giddey) and one of the NBA’s top defenders (Lu Dort). Chet Holmgren, who missed all of last season, is entering the mix.
If OKC is in the middle of the Western Conference playoff field, would the Thunder consider a move for Lillard? Oklahoma City has the assets Portland is looking for (young players and draft picks). And while most teams have flinched at Lillard’s contract (which runs through 2027), the Thunder—which would never be able to sign a player of Lillard’s caliber in free agency—may not mind it as much.
Is it a risk? Sure. Does it press fast-forward on Oklahoma City’s rebuild? Absolutely. Would the Thunder be gambling that Lillard, 33, ages well? No question. But think of the upside: Lillard seems like a strong fit alongside Gilgeous-Alexander (who at 6' 6" can defend bigger guards) and his defensive issues can be hidden playing between SGA and Lu Dort. Oklahoma would enter the postseason with arguably the NBA’s best backcourt and, if Holmgren plays to his potential, a floor-spacing, shot-blocking big to complement them.
It may not happen. But the chance it could is enough reason for Portland to hang on to Lillard a little while longer.
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Mannix! What do you make of the Celtics? I loved Marcus Smart but I understand the move for [Kristaps] Porziņģis. They needed help up front. But are they better? Where do you rank them in the East?—Anthony, East Boston
I’ve been lukewarm on Boston’s offseason. I understand the Porziņģis deal. Al Horford is 37. I’d expect the Celtics to monitor his minutes closely this season. Even if Horford is healthy, Boston might limit him to between 50 and 60 games. Robert Williams is young but always injured. With Grant Williams gone the Celtics needed somebody (more on that below), and Porziņģis, coming off a terrific year in Washington, made sense.
Still, in 2022 Boston muscled its way to the Finals with a defensive identity. They weren’t quite as stingy last season but still finished in the top three in defensive efficiency. I don’t know what the identity is entering this season. Smart was one of the NBA’s best perimeter defenders. Williams, for all his flaws, was a versatile one. It appears the Celtics are leaning more into offense than defense, and I don’t think that’s a championship-winning formula.
A couple of things concern me. Porziņģis is coming off a career-best season. But he did it as a part-time No. 1 option on a team (the Wizards) going nowhere. He was also in a de facto contract year. And I was worried about his health—Porziņģis played 65 games last season, the first time he has played more than 60 since his second NBA season—even before a foot injury forced him out of the World Cup.
Will Porziņģis find a role as a third option in Boston? Will the Celtics find enough minutes for him at center so he isn’t exposed at power forward? Will he be able to stay on the floor? Is he a 38.5% three-point shooter, like he was last season in Washington? Or is the 31% he shot between the Mavericks and Wizards in 2021-22 more indicative of what he will be?
Then there is Malcolm Brogdon. Brogdon incurred an arm injury at the end of last season. He didn’t require surgery—at least not that we know of—and in June Brad Stevens, the Celtics president of basketball operations, told reporters Brogdon would be ready for the start of the season. But Brogdon has a lengthy injury history. And with Smart gone, Brogdon will be counted on to play a bigger role.
Look: Boston will be good. I’d probably slot them behind Milwaukee and neck-and-neck with Philadelphia for the No. 2 seed in my preseason rankings. But this team is going to be more offensive-oriented than last season. And they will need a few things (Porziņģis, Brogdon, even an improved Payton Pritchard, who will likely re-enter the rotation) to break right for them to be really strong on that end.
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What’s the best argument for the Nuggets to repeat? And what’s the best argument that they won’t?—@alecnyberg
What is the best argument for Denver to repeat? He’s 6' 11", super skilled and spent the summer dancing through the Serbian streets. Ring a bell? At 28, Nikola Jokić is in his prime, and he proved last season that with the right mix of players around him, he can lead a team to a title.
And that mix is there. Jamal Murray, another year removed from the ACL injury that cost him the ’21-22 season, will be better. Michael Porter Jr., too. Aaron Gordon is a picture-perfect fit as a defender/rim runner and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope shot 42.3% from three last season. The defection of Bruce Brown Jr. hurts, but count me among those who think Christian Braun is ready for a bigger role.
The argument against? The Western Conference is tough. Think about it—how many gimmes are there in the West? The Rockets? The Spurs? Portland looks to be rebuilding, but if it holds on to Lillard it will compete. It’s reasonable to assume the 8-9-10 seeds last season (Minnesota, Oklahoma City, the Pelicans) will all be better. Significantly. And if the Clippers stay healthy and the Suns come together, look out.
That said, I still like Denver’s chances. Jokić is still Jokić, and there is opportunity for organic growth. But as tough as it was to win last year’s title, this year the road gets a lot tougher.
