Everyone, shut down your tanks and exit through the hatches. The NBA regular season is over, and the odds for next month’s draft lottery are officially set.
Tanking in the NBA has been a subject of derision for about as long as the league has held the draft lottery, but the situation has truly boiled over in the last year. Last season saw the Mavericks, fresh off of the controversial Luka Dončić trade, land the No. 1 pick used to take Cooper Flagg despite the 11th best odds (1.8%) in the league. Dallas, 39–43 a year ago, did not trade Dončić in order to tank, and actually made the play-in tournament. Still, the stunning lottery win set the stage for a season that promises to alter the draft rules substantially.
The 2025–26 season saw franchises like the Wizards, Pacers, Nets, Grizzlies, Jazz and Kings engage in a pretty embarrassing race to the bottom. To be fair, not all of those seasons were built the same. Indiana lost Tyrese Haliburton for the year during last year’s NBA Finals; it is hard to blame them for taking the season to reset. And Washington and the Pacers made some intriguing, forward-looking trades that, they hope, jump starts their rebuilds in 2026–27.
Regardless, there was far too much uncompetitive basketball being played over the season’s final few months, to the point that even poor rosters were holding their best players out in hopes of increasing their odds by a few percentage points.
If Adam Silver has his way, 2026 will mark the end of tanking as we know it, though time will tell whether the league’s proposals actually curb the practice in an effective manner. In the meantime, the league’s many, many bad teams now await their Ping-Pong ball-shaped fates ahead of what appears to be a stacked NBA draft.
Sunday marked the end of the NBA regular season, and with it, the solidification of the final draft lottery odds. Here are the teams in contention for the No. 1 pick and their odds to win the lottery.
Official 2026 NBA draft lottery odds after regular season
| Team | Record | No. 1 Pick Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Wizards | 17–65 | 14% |
| Pacers | 19–63 | 14% |
| Nets | 20–62 | 14% |
| Jazz | 22–60 | 11.5% |
| Kings | 22–60 | 11.5% |
| Grizzlies | 25–57 | 9% |
| Mavericks | 26–56 | 6.8% |
| Hawks (via Pelicans) | 26–56 (N.O.) | 6.7% |
| Bulls | 31–51 | 4.5% |
| Bucks (or Hawks, via Pelicans) | 32–50 | 3% |
| Warriors | 37–45 | 2% |
| Thunder (via Clippers) | 42–40 (L.A.) | 1.5% |
| Heat | 43–39 | 1% |
| Hornets | 44–38 | 0.5% |
By winning no more than 20 games this season, the Wizards, Pacers and Nets clinched the best odds to finish at the top of this loaded draft. Going down the list, trades create some extra intrigue about other lottery slots.
In the seventh and 10th slots above, the Hawks will land the higher pick between the Pelicans and the Bucks, while Milwaukee will take the worse pick of the two, stemming from New Orlean’s trade to for Derik Queen in the middle of last year’s draft. The Bucks’ part in the pick swap stems from the 2020 trade for Jrue Holiday.
More galling is the chance for the Thunder—yes, the defending NBA champion with the league’s best record—to jump up to the top of the draft with odds just a shade worse than the Mavericks’ last year. They own the Clippers’ unprotected first-round pick as part of the 2019 Paul George trade.
That deal has already been a lopsided win for Oklahoma City, who acquired future MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the deal, along with a slew of picks including one that was used to take 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams. Even if the Thunder don’t leap up in the draft, there’s a fair chance they’ll land yet another useful rotation player with this lottery pick.
Names to know in the star-studded 2026 NBA draft class
The 2026 class may not have a Victor Wembanyama-level franchise-changing talent, but is stocked with players that just about every team would love the chance to take at the top of the draft.
BYU’s AJ Dybantsa rounded into form as an elite scorer during the end of his first and only college season. When healthy, Kansas’s Darryn Peterson is an enticing shotmaker who can be effective on and off the ball, and has the size and physicality to be a lead guard at the next level. And Duke’s Cam Boozer is a certified do-it-all forward who has won big at every level.
Beyond those three, North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson, Illinois guard Keaton Wagler and Arkansas guard Darius Acuff are in a strong second tier that could push to break into the top group. There will be a lot of happy teams come draft night, however the lottery shakes out.
For more on the top prospects, click here for Sports Illustrated writer Kevin Sweeney’s 2026 NBA mock draft.
When are the NBA draft lottery and 2026 NBA draft? Key dates to know
The NBA will hold the draft lottery on Sunday, May 10, during the conference semifinal round of the playoffs. The draft combine will begin in Chicago that same day.
Official dates for the 2026 NBA draft have not yet been set. Last year’s draft took place on Wednesday, June 25 and Thursday, June 26, as the league held the event over two nights for the second consecutive year.
If the 2026 draft is held at the same time in this year’s calendar, it would fall on Wednesday, June 24 and Thursday, June 25.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NBA Draft Lottery Odds Are Official: Where Every Team Stands After the Dust Settles on a Tank-Filled Season .
