It’s been more than two months since the last update to these rankings, for which this author apologizes. The good news: the 2022 draft makes a lot more sense now than it did in December, and while there’s still quite a lot left to happen between now and June, things have begun to shape up in significant fashion as teams continue their preparations and decision-makers start to form stronger opinions.
This draft class is led by a very legitimate No. 1 prospect in Jabari Smith Jr., whose impeccable jump shot, defensive versatility and strong intangibles give him an outstanding base to build on as a prospect. There’s a general consensus around the league that Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren and Jaden Ivey also seem likely to hear their names called in the top four. While the order of the top four varies depending on who you talk to, and there’s always going to be debate, I remain comfortable calling Smith the favorite based on all I’ve gathered from sources around the NBA.
There’s some thought circulating that this is going to be a bad draft, and I’m not sure I agree with that—the better way to frame it is that it feels like an unusually confusing class to parse. That’s mostly due to the number of relatively unproven but undeniably intriguing teenage freshmen with legitimate cases as first rounders, many of whom are still a year or two from contributing in the NBA. It could all look a lot different in a couple months depending on who stays in school and who turns pro, and the fact that there have been so many terrific sophomore breakout stories this year in college basketball (Ivey, Johnny Davis and Keegan Murray, to name a few) could add some proof of concept that there’s developmental value in returning.
