The Milwaukee Bucks and Oklahoma City Thunder will meet in Las Vegas on Tuesday to determine the second in-season tournament champion. And it is a fun pairing.
The Thunder are among the top tier of NBA title contenders, racing out to an early lead in the Western Conference despite dealing with a litany of injuries in the frontcourt. The Bucks started the season wobbling on the edge of true disaster before Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard dragged them back from the abyss by, finally, learning how to best complement each other on the court.
Now the two championship hopefuls meet in what is essentially a taste of playoff action. As the intensely competitive quarterfinals and semifinals indicated, the teams involved are taking this seriously. Rotations are shortened to a degree only seen in the postseason, stars are playing 40 minutes and there’s been no letup until the final whistle. They clearly see the NBA Cup as a great opportunity to test playoff mettle, and there is no better stage than the final.
Here are the three big questions that will determine who emerges victorious.
Can the Thunder Cool Down Giannis Antetokounmpo?
Antetokounmpo has been on an absolute tear for the Bucks of late, even by his lofty standards. The Greek Freak has posted five consecutive 30-point games and shot over 60% from the field in the last three. His most recent showing was particularly excellent, as Antetokounmpo recorded 14 rebounds, nine assists, four blocks and a steal along with 32 points to power the Bucks past the Atlanta Hawks in the semifinals.
The Thunder are now tasked with stopping him, a mighty tall order even in the best of times. And for OKC, it is not really the best of times. Despite their 20–5 record, the Thunder are thin in the frontcourt. Isaiah Hartenstein is the only healthy rotation player who measures over 6' 7". Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams, the two other centers, are sidelined. The Thunder have resorted to using Jalen Williams as a de facto center when Hartenstein sits, which has worked out great in a small sample size; OKC’s most-used lineup with Williams at center boasts an utterly preposterous net rating of 35.2 in 54 minutes.
It’s hard to imagine them finding similar success versus the 6' 11", 244-pound Antetokounmpo. The book on how to make his life difficult, especially in a playoff atmosphere, has long been out. It’s a stamina game, really: To limit Antetokounmpo, opponents have to throw as many big-bodied defenders at him as possible and leave them on an island, forcing the two-time MVP to tire himself out by beating the man in front of him time and time again.
It’s hard to successfully do so when he has five inches of height on his defender, even when those defenders are elite like Williams or Lu Dort. And matching up Hartenstein with Antetokounmpo is a nonstarter given he’s dominated opposing centers with his lateral agility for many years now. The Thunder will need a full-team effort from their long list of rangy, smart defenders to prevent the Bucks superstar from collapsing the defense every time down the floor.
Will Damian Lillard Hold Up in Isolation?
As it is a postseason-esque game, it’s reasonable to expect postseason-esque strategy. And there is no more tried-and-true NBA playoff action than to find the weakest defender on the floor and beat him one-on-one. Lillard is that player for the Bucks, and his ability to at least put up a fight will go a long way toward determining how effective Milwaukee’s defense is.
That’s especially the case against a Thunder team that loves to earn points through isolation. Per NBA.com, OKC ranks third in isolation possessions per game and scores 10.8 points per game through such possessions, which is fourth in the league. On a roster overflowing with drivers but lacking in deadeye shooters, this and transition points are how the Thunder generate much of their offense.
With all those factors, it seems fated that OKC will hunt Lillard one-on-one as often as possible. Not only is it a favored way to produce, it serves the dual purpose of tiring out the All-NBA scorer. The Thunder will be in an excellent position to win, and maybe win big, if they can force Lillard to exert energy and still give up points on the defensive end.
This is not a novel strategy. The superstar point guard averages 12 defended field goal attempts per game, third on the team, and opponents are shooting 48.7% on shots defended by Lillard. If the Thunder can pick on Lillard all night and make nearly half their shots in the process, the Bucks are toast. It’ll be on him to make sure that doesn’t happen.
Can the Thunder Win the Turnover, Transition Battle?
The Thunder are very, very good in three key categories so far this season. They don’t turn the ball over (11.8 turnovers per game, first in the NBA), they force their opponents to turn the ball over (12.2 steals per game, also first in the NBA) and they dominate in transition (26.6 transition points per game, fourth in the NBA). All these are connected. By forcing as many turnovers as they do, it’s easy for OKC to get out in transition and score easy points. By not turning the ball over, the Thunder allow only 20.6 opponent transition points per game, which ranks fourth in the league and shows they outscore opponents by nearly six points in the transition game on average.
In many ways, those statistics make up the core identity of this Thunder team. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s slithery drives through the line are iconic, and his running mate, Williams, is beginning to make a name for himself creating on the ball. But hard-nosed defense that constantly picks pockets and leads to points is key to OKC’s dominance—and how the best teams win the toughest games in postseason play.
It doesn’t take a basketball savant to understand that turning the ball over fewer times than your opponent, and scoring more of the easy points in transition, will lead to good things. Those are the core tenets of OKC’s game plan. Without them, the Thunder are forced to overly rely on isolation to create, and beating the Antetokounmpo/Lillard combo in that kind of game is very difficult. OKC needs to play its game to beat Milwaukee, and getting out in transition off turnovers is at the very center.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NBA Cup Final Preview: Three Big Questions That Will Decide Bucks-Thunder.
