At the start of each NBA season, there are, realistically, about 10 teams that could make a run at a championship. By the time the All-Star break hits, those teams have made themselves known. The contenders have risen above the pretenders. The statistical profiles have enough of a sample size to be considered reliable. There’s always the chance of a team’s season getting derailed by an unpredictable twist of events, but by and large, the shortlist of squads who will have a legitimate chance to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June is obvious at this stage. NBA history helps pinpoint how many of those teams there really are, too.
To date there have been 79 NBA championship teams. Of those 79 teams, 78 were a top-four seed in that year’s postseason—the only exception is the ‘94-’95 Rockets, famously the lone six-seed to win an NBA title. In today’s NBA, lower seeds have a better chance of making a run than ever; the talent level is much higher and the league’s collective love of three-pointers introduces a variance that wasn’t present for most of playoff basketball history. Two of the five Finals since 2020 have featured teams (Heat in '23, Mavs in '24) lower than the fourth seed. But the historical trend is clear: to have a genuine shot at a title, boasting one of the four best records in the conference is a must. That means each playoff begins with eight teams that history strongly favors as Finals contenders.
