This year, the NBA play-in tournament has done its job and kept so many teams at least mathematically alive that we thought that you may need a quick guide to determine which teams are still in the mix – and what they’re in the mix for.
Eastern Conference
Clinched: The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers have clinched guaranteed playoff spots. The Toronto Raptors have guaranteed themselves an appearance in the play-in tournament.
Already eliminated: Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons.
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets made the boldest move of the season, even if it was one they felt they had to make. Realizing that the Kyrie Irving-Kevin Durant marriage was never going to work, they sent Irving to the Dallas Mavericks and Durant to the Phoenix Suns. Not that the Nets have been tanking. Winners of their last three games, they’re up two games on the Miami Heat for the sixth seed with four to go. Plus, they will have the reigning Eastern Conference Player of the Week on their side in Mikal Bridges, so you could say that he’s hot.
Record: 43-35
Last 10 games: 4-6
Prediction: The Nets secure the sixth seed in the East, avoiding the play-in tournament.
Miami Heat
The NBA standings are weird. The ninth-seeded Toronto Raptors, who currently sit at .500, have secured a spot in the play-in tournament. The Heat have a 41-37 record and yet have not clinched anything, which is partly their own fault because they lost three straight games before righting the ship with a victory over the freefalling Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. Their remaining schedule includes games against the Pistons and Wizards, so it’s hard to imagine them not securing at least a play-in spot.
Record: 41-37
Last 10 games: 5-5
Prediction: Emerge from the play-in tournament as the seventh seed as a tough out for whichever team they face in the first round.
Atlanta Hawks
What can one say about the Hawks? They’re incredibly consistent, to the point of absurdity, which makes their .500 record almost too fitting. If there’s one wild card on this capable but not inspiring team it may be Dejounte Murray, who is averaging 20.6 points and 6.1 rebounds a game this season (and he’s even better in the clutch). With Chicago a game behind Atlanta in the standings, a big showing by Murray in Tuesday’s Hawks-Bulls meeting could end up being crucial.
Record: 39-39
Last 10 games: 5-5
Prediction: The Hawks reach the play-in tournament but no further. The Raptors instead represent the eighth seed in the East.
Chicago Bulls
If it weren’t for the fact that the Orlando Magic had the tiebreaker over Chicago, the Bulls would already have clinched at least a play-in tournament spot. Now, they must either win one more game or wait around until the Magic lose their next one. If the Hawks have been a model of consistency, the Bulls’ season has seen them struggle to maintain anything of the sort despite a talented roster featuring Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan. A win over the Hawks would put them in a better position for the play-in tournament, but does anyone trust Chicago in elimination games?
Record: 38-40
Last 10 games: 7-3
Prediction: The Bulls make the play-in tournament, but don’t survive.
Orlando Magic
The Magic were too young to genuinely compete this year, but a Rookie of the Year-type season from Paolo Banchero kept them going. The Magic have the tiebreaker over the Bulls, so they remain technically in the mix for a play-in spot despite their identical record to the just-eliminated Wizards. It doesn’t matter because one more Magic loss or Bulls win will end their season.
Record: 34-44
Last 10 games: 6-4
Prediction: Orlando run out of magic before the regular season comes to a close.
Western Conference
Clinched spots: The Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings.
Eliminated: Portland Trail Blazers (poor Damian Lillard), San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns are merely here for completion’s sake. With just two more wins, the Suns will clinch the fourth seed. They could lose their next four games and still probably avoid the play-in tournament (and, for the record, they have won their last five). Let’s be real: the Suns secured a ticket to the postseason the second they took advantage of the Nets’ collapse and traded for Durant. Phoenix have looked vulnerable post-trade, – they lost six of seven games at one point – but if there’s one team that can flip the switch it’s these Suns.
Record: 43-35
Last 10 games: 6-4
Prediction: They end the season where they are now: hanging on to the fourth seed in the Western Conference.
Los Angeles Clippers
Their season may come down to their next game against their crosstown rivals. Yes, the Clippers and the Los Angeles Lakers face off on Wednesday for what could be a season-defining meeting. The two teams are separated by half a game, but the Lakers have an easier schedule while the Clippers are being forced to play without Paul George, who is out with another ill-timed knee injury. The Clippers may need to beat the Lakers to avoid falling into the play-in tournament.
Record: 41-38
Last 10 games: 5-5
Prediction: The Clippers hold off the Lakers, eventually securing the sixth seed. Whether they can go any deeper in the playoffs will depend on George’s health.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have only three games left, leaving them without much wriggle room at the end of the season against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Kings and a Trail Blazers team with nothing left to play for. Still, if they go two of three they put themselves in a decent position to secure the fifth seed, which seems doable given that they have once again emerged as a team the top seeds in the West will be itching to avoid in the first round.
Record: 41-38
Last 10 games: 5-5
Prediction: This writer has stopped questioning Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green when they’re all available. Let’s predict the Warriors beating out the Clippers for the fifth seed, allowing them to rest their veterans while other teams fight for their lives in the play-ins.
Los Angeles Lakers
It turned out that Russell Westbrook was never meant to be with this Lakers team. In managing to get useful pieces out of a declining star who never quite fit in their system, the Lakers were able to salvage their season. With 10 wins in their last 14 games, the Lakers are one of the hottest teams in basketball. They will almost certainly be playing after the regular season ends, so their goal should be trying to prevent LeBron James, fresh from another injury absence, from appearing in the play-in tournament.
Record: 40-38
Last 10 games: 7-3
Prediction: The Lakers lose to the Clippers on Wednesday and fall into the play-in tournament, but win there to secure the seventh seed.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans, winners of seven of their last 10 games, look to be heading into the postseason with more momentum than most of the other bubble teams in the West. However, star Zion Williamson has been out 41 games with a strained hamstring and isn’t scheduled to return for a few more days. Although they have played well down the stretch, the Pelicans have gone 22-26 without Williamson. Even if he does return before the end of the regular season, it’s impossible to know exactly how healthy he will be.
Record: 40-38
Last 10 games: 7-3
Prediction: The Pelicans make the play-in tournament but go no further, with Williamson far from 100%.
Minnesota Timberwolves
When we last saw the Timberwolves they played against a tanking Trail Blazers team that were 19.5-point underdogs. They proceeded to drop a 12-point lead in the second half, leading to perhaps slightly hyperbolic “largest upset in 30 years” headlines. Needless to say, if they lose to the lowly Spurs on Saturday, this consistently inconsistent team shouldn’t bother showing up for the play-in tournament, even if they manage to qualify.
Record: 39-40
Last 10 games: 4-6
Prediction: The Timberwolves barely survive a play-in tournament gauntlet only to be wiped out in the first-round of the playoffs.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have been without a true identity since splitting with Durant and Westbrook, and this season they have looked like what their record shows them to be: a team that is hovering around .500, good enough to make the play-in tournament but not a team that will stick around much longer.
Record: 38-41
Last 10 games: 4-6
Prediction: The Thunder only happen when they’re reigning. Oklahoma City manage to make the play-in tournament, but that’s it.
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks’ tragic number currently sits at three, meaning they can’t afford to lose more than one of their three remaining games and will need help to stave off elimination even if they go 3-0. The Mavericks have gone 4-11 in games featuring both Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, even with Irving on his best behavior. It turns out that the Mavericks needed defensive help and Irving, despite his obvious offensive skills, was once again not the answer to his most recent team’s problems.
Record: 37-42
Last 10 games: 3-7
Prediction: The Mavs miss out on the play-in tournament, giving Irving more time to plan his next move.
Utah Jazz
According to the data whizzes at FiveThirtyEight, the Jazz “have a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs and a >0.1% chance of winning the NBA finals.” That means you have a better chance at hearing actual jazz in Utah than seeing the Jazz make the postseason this year. Given that the club should be in full rebuilding mode after trading away Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley Jr, it’s impressive that they managed to stay in theoretical contention this long.
Record: 36-42
Last 10 games: 3-7
Prediction: Eliminated before the last game of the regular season, but the future’s bright.
