Closing summary
European stock markets are pushing higher. The FTSE 100 index in London is just 5 points ahead now at 7,489, with just three stocks rising. Germany’s Dax is 1.4% ahead at 14,509 while France’s CAC has gained 1.3% to 6,637 and Italy’s FTSE MiB is 1% higher at 24,185. On Wall Street, shares have slipped, with the Dow Jones down 0.3%.
Russian stocks fell when the Moscow stock exchange resumed full trading of Russian stocks and bonds today, but in a shortened trading day. A ban on short selling, and on foreigners selling stocks and OFZ rouble bonds until 1 April, remain in place. The rouble-based Moex Russia index fell 2.15% while the dollar-denominated RTS index slipped 0.8%. The rouble strengthened to 92.51 against the dollar earlier, its highest level since 1 March.
Crude oil prices have fallen today as a two-stage lockdown in Shanghai sparked concerns about slower demand for oil. Brent crude, the global benchmark, has dropped nearly $10 to $111.27 a barrel, while US light crude has dropped to $104.84 a barrel.
European gas prices have risen, however, amid fresh concerns over supplies as Russia insists it wants to be paid for gas in roubles and the G-7 group of nations refuses to comply. The British gas price for day-ahead delivery rose 25p to 243.95p per therm while the Dutch next-day contract rose 1.5% to €102.50 per megawatt hour.
Britain’s economy is expected to suffer a growth slowdown amid the biggest single shock from energy prices since the 1970s, the governor of the Bank of England has warned. He also warned that huge swings in commodity prices mean resilience in financial markets can’t be taken for granted and the authorities are watching the situation very closely.
The chancellor, Rishi Sunak, is being grilled by MPs on the Treasury committee about the spring statement and the cost of living crisis right now. You can follow the latest here.
Our other main stories:
Thank you for reading. We’ll be back tomorrow. Take care! – JK
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BOE's Bailey: Britain to suffer biggest energy price shock since 70s
Britain’s economy is expected to suffer a growth slowdown amid the biggest single shock from energy prices since the 1970s, the governor of the Bank of England has warned.
Andrew Bailey said there were signs of slowing demand from consumers and businesses as they come under heavy pressure from the cost of living squeeze, with soaring prices for gas, electricity and other goods and services, reports our economics correspondent Richard Partington.
“The shock from energy prices this year will be larger than any single year in the 1970s,” he said at an event held by the Bruegel thinktank in Brussels on Monday. “The caveat is that the 1970s had a succession of years and we very much hope that would not be the case now. But as a single year, this is a very, very big shock.”
The US trade in goods deficit shrank to $106.6bn in February after a setting a record high in January, as exports bounced back.
Exports climbed 1.2% to $157bn, led by a 6.3% surge in shipments of consumer goods, the US Commerce Department said. Imports edged 0.3% higher to $264bn.
Food exports rose by 3.6% while industrial supplies increased by 2.6%, while motor vehicle shipments fell 3.4%, as production continued to be held back by a global semiconductor shortage.
Rishi Sunak, the UK chancellor, is now being questioned by the Commons Treasury committee. My colleague Andrew Sparrow is live blogging here.
Earlier, the committee quizzed Richard Hughes, chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility. He said that, because benefits are increased in April in line with inflation the previous September, it can take 18 months for benefits to catch up with inflation. He said that is fine when inflation levels are stable. But, because inflation is accelerating at the moment, for the next 18 months benefits will be behind inflation.
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Meanwhile, in a joint letter to the transport and BEIS secretaries of state, the chairs of the transport and BEIS committees say the departments must work collaboratively to address some of the “appalling” evidence laid out last week, following P&O Ferries’ sacking of 800 UK workers.
The chairs jointly called for the resignation of the P&O Ferries chief executive, Peter Hebblethwaite, and urged the government to prosecute the company and take away its licence to operate in the UK.
Their joint oral evidence session examined matters of “deep public concern” in relation to business practices and employment law. In their letter, the chairs set out 10 top-line conclusions ranging across:
- The well-being of the sacked seafarers
- Addressing the uncertainty and application of related employment and maritime law
- The powers of the Maritime and Coastal Agency and Insolvency Service
- Actions to update employment law and key protections for workers
- Potential action against P&O Ferries and other potential law-breaking companies.
Huw Merriman, chair of the transport select committee, and Darren Jones, chair of the business, energy and industrial strategy committee, wrote to Grant Shapps and Kwasi Kwarteng, the transport and business secretaries:
P&O Ferries broke the law; it or other companies may do so again. P&O Ferries Chief Executive Peter Hebblethwaite told us that “there is absolutely no doubt that we were required to consult with the unions. We chose not to do so”. The government should prosecute P&O Ferries and remove its licence to operate in the UK...
Hebblethwaite flaunted his contempt for the law. He is not a fit and proper person to run a company that operates critical national infrastructure. He must resign and be struck off as a company director.
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P&O Ferries latest: P&O Ferries has “one last opportunity” to U-turn on the sacking of 800 crew and must lift this week’s deadline for the employees to sign redundancy and non-disclosure agreements, the government has warned, writes our transport correspondent Gwyn Topham.
The transport secretary Grant Shapps wrote to the firm’s chief executive Peter Hebblethwaite on Monday spelling out his intention to legislate, informing him that P&O Ferries would be “left with little choice but to reverse your decision in any case”.
He warned Hebblethwaite that his position as CEO and a director “has become untenable”.
In the letter which Shapps posted on Twitter, he also outlined plans to bring in a package of measures to “block the outcome that P&O Ferries has pursued, including paying less than the minimum wage”.
Here’s a bit more on Reuters from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey - he said nothing had gone seriously wrong in the functioning of commodity markets, but it is the area of greatest fragility in terms of stresses in the financial system.
Last week, the European Central Bank said it would need to keep a close eye on the commodity derivatives market because price volatility had increased market stress.
Prices of oil, gas, metals, wheat and other commodities have surged since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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The boss of the Lloyd’s insurance market, John Neal, is in hospital after a collision with a car while he was riding his bike and sustained serious injuries, but is expected to make a full recovery.
In his absence, Lloyd’s will be led by Burkhard Keese, chief operating officer and chief financial officer, and Patrick Tiernan, chief of markets.
The group said last week it was working with the UK government to implement sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine as fast as possible, including cancelling Russian firms’ insurance cover.
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BOE's Bailey: Swings in commodity prices pose risk to market resilience
Huge swings in commodity prices mean resilience in financial markets can’t be taken for granted and the authorities are watching the situation very closely, the Bank of England’s governor Andrew Bailey said today.
Speaking at an event at the Brussels think tank Bruegel, he said:
Liquidity conditions have deteriorated in many commodity markets, margining costs have risen, which is of course a reflection of much higher volatility and risks in these markets.
We can’t take resilience in particularly that part of the market for granted. There’s a strong need to work together on this.
He said the Financial Stability Board, an international board, was doing that.
The Midlands-based firm Celadon Pharmaceuticals, founded in 2018, is listing on London’s junior Aim market with a market value of £107m – the first medicinal cannabinoid company to list here since GW Pharma floated on Aim in June 2001. (GW later delisted to trade exclusively on Nasdaq). Celadon’s listing is via a reverse takeover of Aim-listed Summerway Capital, a cash shell.
Celadon is believed to be one of the first pharmaceutical companies in the UK to receive a Home Office licence, allowing it to grow high tetrahydrocannabinol (“THC”) medicinal cannabis. It will grow cannabis at a 100,000 sq ft lab in the Midlands, and will initially focus on the chronic pain market, but is working with partners to investigate the potential of cannabinoids in other areas, including autism.
The NHS has estimated that 1 in 5 adults in the UK live with chronic pain, of which around 3 million may be eligible for cannabinoid medicines as an alternative form of therapy.
Celadon has grown some cannabis test batches to gain approval from the UK medical regulator and is working on ramping this up. At full capacity, it could supply up to 50,000 patients, and generate £90m in revenues a year. It is providing medicinal cannabis to a clinical trial run by LVL Health, to treat pain.
The change of name on the London Stock Exchange from Summerway Capital to Celadon Pharmaceuticals is expected to take effect tomorrow.
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Oil prices are still sliding, as a two-stage lockdown in Shanghai led to expectations of lower demand. Brent crude is down 3.5% at $116.39 a barrel while US light crude is trading 3.85% lower at $109.4 a barrel.
Here’s our full story on HSBC reportedly removing references to a “war” in Ukraine from research reports, amid calls for the British bank to close its operations in Russia, by my colleague Jasper Jolly.
HSBC is under pressure to follow the lead of some of its largest international rivals and close its Russian operations, which employ about 200 people serving multinational clients based outside the country. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank have announced plans to wind down their Russian businesses. Several of the largest Russian banks have been placed under sanctions by the US, EU and UK, making it difficult for foreign banks to carry out transactions in Russia.
HSBC has declined some new Russian clients and refused to extend credit to existing customers, according to Reuters, after saying on 14 March that it was “not accepting any new business in Russia”. However, it has not announced plans to withdraw or wind down its operations.
MPs from the Conservative party, Labour and the Liberal Democrats have said HSBC should leave Russia. The Labour MP Dame Margaret Hodge earlier this month said banks should “do the right thing” and sever ties with Russia. Kevin Hollinrake, a Conservative MP, said HSBC’s continued presence in Russia “cannot be justified” and added there were “clear commercial and moral reasons” to shut down the operation.
Hollinrake said on Monday he would be closing his HSBC account.
Russian stocks fall, rouble firms
On the Moscow stock exchange, stocks are falling, as the authorities allowed full trading of all Russian shares and bonds after limiting activity for a month. However, they kept certain limitations in place to prevent a sharp sell-off, including a ban on short sales and a ban on foreigners selling Russian shares.
The rouble-based Moex Russian index fell 1.6% while the dollar-denominated RTS index slipped 0.5%. Flag carrier Aeroflot recovered from earlier losses, which took its shares to the lowest level since 2009, to trade 5% higher.
The financial, energy and utility sectors led the declines, with losses from Sberbank (-3.7%), VTB (-3.5%), Rosneft Oil (-3.6%) and Lukoil (-2.4%).
The rouble strengthened by 2.4% to 93.74 per dollar.
Yields on Russia’s benchmark 10-year OFZ treasury bonds were at 13.63%, down from the record high of 19.74% hit last week.
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Biden budget to boost military and lift taxes on billionaires
Joe Biden is expected to ask US Congress for record peacetime military spending while raising taxes from billionaires and projecting lower government deficits.
The US president’s budget proposal for the fiscal year starting 1 October lays out his administration’s priorities, but is merely a wish list – because lawmakers on Capitol Hill have the final say on budget matters.
For the first time, Biden will throw his public support behind a new tax requiring billionaires to pay at least 20% of their income in taxes, including on the gains on investments that have not been sold.
The White House says the tax would apply to 0.01% of American households, those worth over $100m, and more than half of the revenue would come from those worth more than $1bn. The move would reduce the government deficit by $360bn over the next decade.
Biden’s plan projects a total national security budget of above $800bn. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has deepened concerns over European security, while the Biden administration continues to invest in research and development on hypersonic missiles. The US has been giving Kyiv weapons and other assistance.
This year’s overall budget deficit is expected to fall by $1.3 trillion from last year, as the US economy rebounds from the Covid-19 crisis.
Barclays is among the biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 this morning, down 3.7% to 161.13p, after the UK bank disclosed a £450m loss on mishandled bond trades.
This means Barclays will delay a planned £1bn share buyback until the second quarter.
The bank said securities offered and sold by its structured products business had, for around a year, exceeded the registered amount for sale, which means they will have to be bought back at the original purchase price.
UK government asks public sector bodies to sever ties with Russian firms
The UK government has instructed councils, hospitals and other public sector bodies to review any contracts they have with Russian firms and consider switching suppliers. Most existing contracts are for energy and could benefit the Russian state, according to government minister Steve Barclay.
He said in a statement:
Public money should not fund Putin’s war machine. We are asking hospitals, councils and other organisations across the public sector to urgently look at all the ways they can go further to sever their commercial ties to Russia.
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S&P Global cuts eurozone growth forecast to 3.3%
The credit rating agency S&P Global has cut the growth outlook for the eurozone, saying higher energy prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would hit households’ spending power.
Thanks to a strong recovery momentum and sufficient cash buffers, we don’t expect a full-year recession but rather a drop in GDP growth to 3.35 this year versus 4.4% previously.
As close neighbours to Russia and Ukraine, European countries are among the most exposed to the crisis, the rating agency said.
Uncertainty surrounding our forecasts is higher than usual, with downside risks to growth for 2022 and upside risks for inflation this year and next.
Lawyers and campaigners have called on the government to take urgent action to help thousands of Ukrainian seasonal farm workers who were in the UK when the war started and have been left at risk of destitution, abuse and exploitation here.
Ukrainians made up by far the largest proportion of workers in the UK on seasonal worker visas in 2021. Of the 29,631 visas issued under the T5 seasonal work scheme, 19,920 – 67% – were given to Ukrainians. The Scottish Refugee Council estimates that there are up to 6,000 in the UK.
While the government has announced two schemes to allow Ukrainians to come to the UK – the family visa scheme and the community sponsorship scheme – Ukrainian farm workers who are here on six-month visas do not qualify for either.
Ahead of today’s Treasury committee hearings on the spring statement with the OBR and the chancellor:
Rishi Sunak is planning further help with the cost of living, the UK education secretary, Nadhim Zahawi, has said, adding that it would “irresponsible for me to say ‘job done’” days after the spring statement, writes our chief political correspondent Jessica Elgot.
Zahawi’s hint came amid reports Sunak will look again at a further council tax rebate in the autumn, after the chancellor was widely criticised for a statement that appeared to do little to ease the pressures of rising energy prices and inflation.
Sunak announced a rise in the threshold for paying national insurance, as well as a 5p fuel duty cut, but no additional rise in benefits. The Resolution Foundation has predicted half a million children could be pushed below the poverty line next year.
Major investors have launched a campaign calling for Sainsbury’s to help tackle the cost of living crisis by becoming the first supermarket group to pay all its workers the “real living wage” of £9.90 an hour, reports my colleague Rupert Jones.
Legal & General Investment Management, Nest (National Employment Savings Trust), which is Britain’s largest workplace pension scheme, and several MPs have formed a coalition to push for the change after reports that increasing numbers of supermarket workers are having to turn to food banks to feed themselves and their families.
The group of investors – whose institutional members manage £2.2tn of assets – will file a shareholder resolution on Monday calling for Sainsbury’s to accredit as a living wage employer. The resolution will be put to the vote at the Sainsbury’s annual general meeting, planned for 7 July. The group said it would be writing to all UK supermarkets urging them to take the same action.
My colleague Rob Davies has looked at why nuclear power is back in the game, although it still remains a distant prospect for UK.
If the climate crisis weren’t reason enough, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has crystallised the case for any energy technology that allows us to eschew fossil fuels supplied by foreign despots.
This week, the prime minister is expected to outline his plan to make the UK more energy self-sufficient, with nuclear likely to be a key component. Charging at full pelt towards a nuclear future is far from straightforward, though, if history is anything to go by.
Even when the UK did produce a quarter of its electricity from nukes, the journey there was long and bumpy. Sizewell B was hooked up to the national grid in 1995, but it was first announced in 1969, with spades only breaking ground in 1986.
More recently, the industry has been in steady decline. Since that mid-90s peak, capacity has fallen from nearly 13GW to 6.8GW, about 16-18% of the electricity mix.
However, Johnson prepares a new push for nuclear power, the £131bn problem of how to safely dispose of vast volumes of radioactive waste created by the last British atomic energy programme remains unsolved, experts say, writes our environment correspondent Sandra Laville.
The hugely expensive and dangerous legacy of the UK’s 20th-century nuclear revolution amounts to 700,000 cubic metres of toxic waste – roughly the volume of 6,000 doubledecker buses. Much of it is stored at Sellafield in Cumbria, which the Office for Nuclear Regulation says is one of the most complex and hazardous nuclear sites in the world.
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Here is our full story on NatWest Group. The bank has returned to majority private ownership after it agreed to buy back £1.2bn of shares from the UK government, more than 13 years after the company was bailed out by taxpayers at the height of the financial crisis.
Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, has looked at the markets this morning:
China’s zero tolerance covid strategy is causing fresh nervousness about supply chain issues and a slowdown for some sectors with the Shanghai shutdown prompting a fall in the oil price. A barrel of Brent crude dipped by around 3% after tough restrictions were put on the financial and manufacturing hub. 25 million people are facing lockdown in two stages, while mass testing is carried out, with factories ordered to shut down and working from home orders imposed.
The FTSE 100 has largely shrugged off the concerns about the effect on global trade for now, with the FTSE 100 opening up marginally in early trade with mining stocks Rio Tinto and Anglo American along the risers, but energy giants BP and Shell slipping back as oil retreated.
NatWest Group has reached a milestone with the UK government’s stake in the bank peeled back to below 50% since the first time since the financial crisis. It’s been a long road back from emergency purchase of the beleaguered Royal Bank of Scotland group, with a re-brand, and the step by step repurchase of the government holdings. This is the fifth sale, returning £1.2bn to treasury coffers, at a time when the government sorely needs the cash with the costs of borrowing mounting.
Geopolitical tensions are still high in investors’ minds with negotiations set to re-start in Turkey to try and find a way to break through the impasse in the attempts to broker a ceasefire. But it’s largely a wait and see approach traders are taking right now, with hopes lifting slightly with president Zelensky reported to be ready to discuss neutral status. However, a fresh cloud has been put over these talks after president Biden’s off-the-cuff remarks about president Putin, despite the backtracking by the US administration, which has underlined that regime change in Moscow is not on the cards.
European stock markets are trading higher, while Brent crude is still trading down 3.4% at $116.53 a barrel.
- UK’s FTSE 100 up 24 points, or 0.3%, at 7,506
- Germany’s Dax up 168 points, or 1.12%, at 14,472
- France’s CAC up 56 points, or 0.9%, at 6,610
- Italy’s FTSE MiB up 210 points, or 0.9%, at 24,772
- Ibex up 105 points, or 1.3%, at 8,435
Ted Baker rejects US private equity firm's revised offer
Ted Baker has rejected the latest takeover proposal from the US private equity firm Sycamore Partners Management as too low.
Sycamore upped its offer for the British fashion chain to 137.5p a share, valuing the retailer at £253.8m, after its initial proposal of 130p a share was turned down.
Ted Baker shares traded as high as £30 in 2015, but have since fallen to 122p. They were down 3.3% this morning.
The UK retailer is in the middle of a three-year turnaround plan under chief executive Rachel Osborne, as it tries to rebuild its tarnished reputation and boost online sales after profit warnings, accounting problems and a scandal around its founder Ray Kelvin, who resigned after “forced hugging” allegations by staff.
Ted Baker said:
The board of Ted Baker carefully reviewed both of Sycamore’s proposals with its advisers and concluded they significantly undervalued Ted Baker and failed to compensate shareholders for the significant upside that can be delivered by Ted Baker as a listed company.
Ted Baker is a leading global brand with a strong future. The management actions taken over the last two years have put the business on a firm footing and it is now well on the way to recovery following a turbulent period.
A number of British companies have been taken over by overseas private equity firms in recent months, including the supermarket chain Morrisons, as business valuations have been hit by the pandemic and Brexit.
In the currency markets, the Japanese yen has fallen to a six-year low, after the Bank of Japan stepped in to stop government bond yields from rising above its key target. (A bond’s yield is the return to an investor from the bond’s coupon, or interest, payments.)
Rising yields on US government bonds, known as Treasuries, have pushed the dollar higher against other currencies too. Yields on two-year and 10-year Treasury bonds hit the highest levels since spring 2019.
The BOJ made two offers to buy an unlimited amount of Japanese government bonds with maturities of more than five years, up to 10 years. The central bank, which has pledged to keep its monetary policy loose, wants to prevent rising global interest rates from pushing up Japanese yields.
The dollar gained almost 1% against the yen to 123.25 yen, its highest level since December 2015. The greenback has rallied more than 7% so far in March, its biggest monthly gain in more than five years.
The euro and sterling both slid 0.25% against the dollar, to $1.0953 and $1.3150 respectively.
HSBC removes reference to 'war' in Ukraine from analysts' notes – report
HSBC has removed reference to “war” in Ukraine from analysts’ research notes, as the bank continues to resist calls to follow other banks in halting its business in Russia.
Moscow has called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a special military operation justified on grounds of self-defence.
HSBC committees that review all external-published research and client communications have amended multiple reports to soften the language used on the subject, including changing the word “war” to “conflict”, the Financial Times reported, citing two people with direct knowledge of the matter.
The changes in language have triggered internal debate and strong complaints from some staff, the FT said. It contrasts with explicit references to Russia’s “war” in research from rival banks such as UBS, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. One HSBC commodities research note dated March 22 did include the word “war”, in reference to a Bloomberg report. Another report about food retail on March 23 referenced an FT article that quoted the chair of Waitrose speaking about the inflation impact of the “war”.
However, a senior Ukrainian official said he did not expect any major breakthrough at the talks between Ukrainian and Russian representatives in Turkey, Reuters reported.
Interior ministry adviser Vadym Denysenko said ahead of the talks:
I don’t think there will be any breakthrough on the main issues.
Meanwhile, an aide to the Ukrainian president said Turkey is among the countries that could serve as a guarantor for Ukraine on security issues in the future.
You can read more on our Ukraine live blog here:
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Introduction: NatWest returns to majority private control, crude drops on Shanghai lockdown
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
NatWest Group has agreed to buy back shares worth £1.2bn from the UK government, in a transaction that will mean the bank is majority private-owned for the first time since it was bailed out during the financial crisis.
The bank, formerly known as Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), said it had agreed to make an off-market purchase of 550m shares, or 4.91% of its share capital, from HM Treasury at Friday’s closing price of 220.5p.
On the markets, oil prices have fallen back and Asian shares stumbled as a new coronavirus lockdown in Shanghai hit economic activity.
The Moscow Exchange will resume normal trading of Russian shares and bonds today, for half a day. Last week it introduced limited trading. Today’s trading session will last from 7.50am to 11.50am BST. On Friday, Russian stocks fell on their second day of trading with losses led by flag carrier Aeroflot.
Non-residents will still have to wait, though – they will be barred from selling stocks and Russian rouble-denominated government bonds, known as OFZ bonds, until 1 April. A ban on short selling also remains.
Shanghai has told all firms to suspend manufacturing or have people working remotely in a two-stage lockdown over nine days. Brent crude fell more than $4 to $116.55 a barrel while US light crude dropped to $109.64 a barrel.
Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.7% lower while Chinese blue chips on the CSI 300 lost 0.9%, the Shanghai Composite edged down 0.1%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1%. European shares are expected to open slightly higher.
Gold prices have dropped and the dollar has strengthened, as investors took hope from the prospect of new peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. As demand for safe-haven assets faded, the price of spot gold fell more than 1% to $1,936. The dollar index hit its highest level in more than a week.
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators will resume face-to-face talks as soon as today, as the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy hailed the forthcoming new negotiations, saying he hoped they would bring peace “without delay”.
Profit growth at China’s industrial firms picked up in January to February, driven by surging profits in the energy and raw material sectors. Profits rose 5% from a year earlier, compared with a 4.2% gain in December, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. However, analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that Covid outbreaks in multiple provinces would weigh on industrial profits.
In the UK, Grant Shapps is writing to the chief executive of P&O Ferries urging him to announce a U-turn on the decision to sack 800 workers without notice, as unions pledged to “ratchet up the fight” after a weekend of protests.
It emerged yesterday that Russian agents seized millions of dollars worth of Audemars Piguet watches in Moscow in an apparent retaliation for Swiss sanctions banning luxury goods exports, Bloomberg reported, citing Swiss newspaper NZZ am Sonntag.
The Agenda
- 11.30am BST: Treasury Committee to question Office for Budget Responsibility on spring statement
- 12:00 BST: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks
- 1.30pm BST: US Trade in goods for February
- 2.40pm BST: Treasury Committee to question chancellor on spring statement
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