A military wargame simulating a Russian attack on Nato has concluded that Moscow would ‘achieve most of its goals’ in a matter of days.
The wargame, which was conducted by former German and Nato officials, simulated a fictional Russian incursion into Lithuania.
It envisaged a scenario where the Kremlin used bogus claims of a ‘humanitarian crisis’ in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to seize the Lithuanian city of Marijampole to its east, in a pretext for military action.
The scenario, set in October 2026, saw Russian forces sweep into the city, a crucial junction on the road corridor linking Russia and Belarus, and seizing the region using an initial force of just 15,000 troops.
The exercise concluded that a lack of US leadership and hesitancy from Nato allies could allow the Kremlin to dominate the Baltic region in a matter of days.
Polish security analyst Bartlomiej Kot played the role of Poland's prime minister during the simulation, and said the results were deeply concerning.
Kot said: “The Russians achieved most of their goals without moving many of their own units.
“What this showed to me is that once we are confronted by the escalatory narrative from the Russian side, we have it embedded in our thinking that we are the ones who should be de-escalating.”
Marijampole is seen as a critical choke point in Europe's transport network, as it hosts the Via Baltica highway, which is used by both the European Union and Ukraine, running southwest towards Poland.
Running east to west is a road connecting Belarus with Kaliningrad, which Lithuania is obliged to keep open to Russian transit under an international treaty.
During the wargame, Russia framed its advance into Lithuanian territory as a humanitarian operation, as the US chose not to invoke Nato’s Article 5 which ensures all members defend another member state under attack.
Meanwhile, Germany hesitated to respond, a brigade stationed in Lithuania failed to intervene after Russian drones reportedly laid mines near a military base, and Poland mobilised but failed to send troops to defend the territory.
Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst, played the role of the Russian chief of general staff in the game.
Gady said: “Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on what the enemy believes about our will, and in the wargame, my "Russian colleagues" and I knew: Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win.”
The simulation came amid growing fears across Europe of a Russian attack on Nato territory, with repeated incursions of drones and fighter jets in the past year, and analysts calling this an attempt to probe responses and expose weaknesses.
In September 2025, Russian drones invaded Poland’s airspace, with Warsaw shooting them down and triggering Nato Article 4, one below the threshold of war.
Netherlands Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans said their government had assessed that “Russia will be able to move large amounts of troops within one year.”
Brekelmans added: “We see that they are already increasing their strategic inventories, and are expanding their presence and assets along the Nato borders.”
The wargame was carried out in December by the German Wargaming Center of the Helmut-Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces, along with newspaper Die Welt.
