Marine Le Pen confirms she intends to run in 2027 presidential election, appeal parts of today's verdict – what we know so far
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French far-right leader Marine Le Pen has doubled down on her intention to run in the 2027 presidential election in France, saying she will appeal against part of today’s ruling as she maintained her innocence (20:08, 20:13).
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She argued the appeal would effectively suspend the contentious requirement to wear an electronic tag, and she previously said she considered campaigning with a tag impossible (20:43).
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There are some questions about whether this strategy would be ultimately truly effective or if it is just a move to play for time. France’s highest court is seen as likely to rule on the appeal before the election, which could confirm the tag requirement (20:55, 21:08).
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Le Pen is likely to portray her fight against the verdict as an attempt to let the French people “have the final word” on her candidacy, keeping the pressure on the judiciary to let her campaign freely (20:18).
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Speaking on TF1 TV, Le Pen launched a campaign website and said she would run on what would effectively be a joint ticket with the National Rally president Jordan Bardella as her preferred candidate to be France’s next prime minister (20:36).
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Bardella is widely seen as the NR’s back-up candidate if Le Pen was forced to drop out of the race, and a joint campaign would allow them to campaign together (21:19).
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Joint ticket framing makes it clear Bardella remains Le Pen's backup option – snap analysis
One could argue that Le Pen’s move to openly frame her campaign as a joint ticket with Bardella as her preferred prime minister could also serve another purpose.
This means that should a court decision make it untenable for her to stay in the race further down the line – for example, if her appeal to the highest court goes against her before the formal race begins – Bardella will be fully ready to step in. He would have an already functioning campaign machine behind him: the same one she is, or they are, building now.
It allows her to remain the lead candidate for now and rally her electorate in the early stages, while keeping an elegant – and minimally disruptive – route to drop out later as a “plan B”.
With polls suggesting they can motivate different groups of the electorate, it gives them some flexibility to make the most of their slightly different profiles in a bid to maximise the support the can get for the joint ticket.
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Le Pen goes down the legal route she had previously ruled out – snap analysis
Europe correspondent
Le Pen had previously ruled out going to France’s highest court, the court of cassation – which has said that if it was asked to assess the case it would rule before the election – arguing that the uncertainty would jeopardise her party’s chances.
But Le Pen announced on Tuesday evening that she was indeed taking her case to the highest French judicial authority, saying she wanted to “exhaust all the legal avenues available to me in order to defend my innocence in this case” and arguing “the people will decide”.
Taking her case to the highest court meant the appeal court’s order that she wear an electronic ankle tag would not be applied until a final ruling was handed down, she said, adding: “Tonight, I am a candidate in the presidential election.”
The RN had already started preparing for the possibility that her 30-year-old protege, Jordan Bardella, would be its candidate instead. But Le Pen’s decision defers that possibility at least until the court de cassation delivers its verdict.
Polls suggest either RN candidate, Le Pen or Bardella, would comfortably win the first round, due on 18 April.
Forecasts for the runoff are divided, with some polls suggesting a centrist candidate, the former prime minister Édouard Philippe, could emerge victorious.
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After the court’s verdict earlier, I said the verdict moved Le Pen’s decision back from being a legal issue to being a political issue (14:20) with the central question of whether she could she credibly run given she repeatedly said she wouldn’t if forced to wear a tag?
But Le Pen seeks to reframe this question through a typically anti-establishment lens.
She says she will pursue all possible remedies to delay or overturn the application of the most contentious element – the tag – in a bid to run her campaign freely.
She is arguing that the ultimate decision on whether someone in her legal position could or should be elected president should be with the French people, and only with the French people.
So, she says, she will be the candidate. She is determined.
But with the Court of Cassation previously saying it would be able to decide on this appeal before the election, what happens if they reject her appeal and indeed make her wear the tag? That would essentially bring us back to the original question.
Le Pen appears to be effectively doubling down on her narrative: either you remove the contentious element and let me run freely, or you risk interfering with the electoral process.
Cynics might argue that this is a powerful hook for her campaign, even if she eventually has to wear the tag.
This won’t be over any time soon.
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It looks like Le Pen doesn’t want to waste any time: she is already planning a joint appearance with Bardella tomorrow morning, effectively launching her pre-campaign, BFMTV reported.
Le Pen’s conviction that she will still be able to stand as a candidate and campaign freely appears to hinge on the assumption that an appeal to the Court of Cassation suspends the application of the verdict, including the critical requirement for her to wear an electronic tag.
“I will therefore campaign without an electronic bracelet,” she claimed.
However, significant questions remain over whether that is indeed the case, and the political risk if the appeal gets rejected before or during the campaign, effectively still forcing her to wear the tag.
The Court of Cassation prevously said it would be able to rule before the presidential election.
But she is not giving up just yet, that’s for sure.
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Le Pen floats her 'pair' deal with Bardella as prospective prime minister
In her interview, Le Pen also made it clear that she considered her candidacy a package deal with Bardella as the candidate for the post of the prime minister if she wins – “a pair”, she calls it – saying it is a “complementary, balanced, coherent, and solid” partnership.
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This was sort of to be expected: given it’s her life’s work to get her party to this point (14:25), Le Pen doesn’t want to be giving up the idea of running in next year’s presidential election.
She appears to be going down a similar route to that taken by Nigel Farage in the UK earlier today: saying that ultimately it’s a decision for the electorate, and all she wants is to be able to campaign freely so they can make that choice.
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Asked if she is not worried about the backlash from the electorate after she was found guilty again today, she says the ultimate decision will be with the French people and "they will have the final word” on this.
Asked if Bardella was disappointed that she still intends to run in 2027, she says that’s not the case – “you are too accustomed to typical political class,” she says – and insists they are working hand in hand, fighting to change France.
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Le Pen confirms she intends to challenge the verdict, run in 2027 presidential election
Le Pen says her mind remains clear that she cannot run a campaign if told to wear an electronic tag, but repeats that she will seek to appeal against that part of today’s verdict.
She says the tag element can be suspended by her further appeal.
Asked if, as of tonight, she confirms her intention is to run in 2027.
She even anounces a campaign website, asking her supporters to sign up.
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Le Pen says she will appeal part of today's ruling
Le Pen is speaking now on TF1.
She insists she is still innocent and disagrees with the court’s ruling which says her assistants engaged with the French, not European, politics, and will appeal part of it to the Court of Cassation.
But she says she is happy the court gave the French people the freedom to vote in the election by shortening the ineligiblity element.
As we get closer to Marine Le Pen’s 8pm prime time interview, the French attorney general said she would make her decision on whether to appeal today’s decision “next week,” RTL reported.
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Zelenskyy says Nato should let Ukraine join to ‘make all of us stronger’
Defence and security editor
in Ankara
Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has argued for Ukraine to be allowed to join Nato at its annual summit – saying it would be wrong to exclude a country that had built up strong defences in its long struggle against the Russian invasion.
The Ukrainian president said his country had developed almost all the weapons it needed, and now only required European help in developing an alternative to the US Patriots to protect against ballistic missile attack.
“I have a question for you. Do you really believe it? Do you really believe it would be right to leave outside Nato, a country and a people with this level of defensive capability?” Zelenskyy said at Nato’s defence industry forum.
“If we already have these capabilities, if Ukrainians already know how to fight like this, then it does make sense for these capabilities to become a part of the alliance’s collective defence that would make all of us stronger.”
Ukraine is in the fifth year of fighting off the invasion by its larger neighbour. The conflict has reached the point where Russia’s rate of advance has ground to a crawl and Kyiv is able to attack economic targets as far afield as Siberia.
However, Ukraine’s aspiration to become a member of Nato remains far off, with allies including the US not interested in allowing a country at war with nuclear-armed Russia to become part of the western military alliance.
Le Pen to give TV interview
I am back to guide you through the evening and that much awaited Marine Le Pen interview on TF1 in just under 40 minutes, where she is expected to give her first reaction to today’s court verdict on her appeal.
I will bring you all the latest here.
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The UK and Norwegian prime ministers exchanged some World Cup banter in the gardens of the British ambassador’s residence in Ankara, Turkey, following a meeting at the annual Nato summit.
The two men, wearing the football shirts of their respective countries, shook hands before Jonas Gahr Støre reminded Keir Starmer of Norway’s 1981 World Cup qualifying victory over England.
Forty-five years ago, Prime Minister, Norway played England in the qualification and we won. And the radio commentators said ‘Maggie Thatcher, can you hear me? Your boys took one hell of a beating’.
In response, Starmer quipped:
What you’re leaving out is that England only win the World Cup under Labour governments – 1966 – so the time is ours.
England’s dramatic victory over Mexico in the early hours of Monday morning set up the encounter on Saturday with Norway, who defeated Brazil on their way to the quarter-final.
The two leaders’ footballing interlude provided a light-hearted moment ahead of a crucial Nato summit set to be again dominated by rows about defence spending amid doubts over Donald Trump’s commitment to the alliance.
In their meeting, they had discussed support for Ukraine and efforts to ensure a long-standing ceasefire in the Middle East.
Nato says European core defence spending up 11% in 2026
Nato on Tuesday said core defence spending by Europe and Canada rose 11% in 2026, as Donald Trump pressures allies to make good on a vow to ramp up budgets.
The latest figures were released as leaders from the 32-nation alliance come face-to-face with Trump at the summit in Ankara.
Nato estimated that spending by Europe and Canada in 2026 would hit $634bn from $571bn in 2025, still well off US expenditure on its military.
The increase was down on a roughly 19% uptick from 2024 to 2025.
As you know, Trump is demanding that allies pick up their pace on fulfilling a pledge to reach 5% of GDP on broader security-related spending by 2035.
Nato said that already this year five countries – including Poland and the Baltic states – were hitting that target.
But there were some countries that were lagging well behind – with Slovenia at the back of the pack with core defence spending at just 1.61%.
And now we have Viktor Orbán’s response to Hungary’s state TV news channel halting broadcasting as part of prime minister Péter Magyar’s efforts to undo the longtime nationalist leader’s hold on the media
“Another example of Tisza tyranny!” Orbán posted on social media, suggesting that viewers “interested in the truth” should watch the Hir TV channel linked to his Fidesz party instead.
Control of the media was a key pillar of Orbán’s 16-year rule, during which he transformed Hungary into a self-styled “illiberal” democracy. Restoring the independence of the country’s public broadcasters was a key campaign promise for Magyar, who ousted Orbán as prime minister in April’s historic election in which he won a two-thirds majority in parliament on the promise of a clean break from the Orbán era.
Magyar’s government has moved swiftly to undo the former leader’s grip on the Hungarian state, including by passing a swathe of anti-corruption measures and changing the constitution to effectively bar Orbán from running again.
Besides the public media, the new government has also targeted private outlets owned by Orbán-allied businessmen. Top private broadcaster TV2 has seen its main news anchors replaced and its news director pushed out since Magyar’s election victory.
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Nigel Farage resigning as UK MP amid scrutiny over donations - but says will stand in ‘people v establishment’ by-election
And there’s big news in UK politics today. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage announced he is resigning as the MP for Clacton amid scrutiny over his finances, only to subject himself to a self-inflicted by-election - which he will likely win – and is framing as a “people v establishment” contest.
A reminder that Farage faces serious allegations about failing to declare a £5m gift from the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne and financial support from his friend and fraudster George Cottrell. There are now two investigations by the parliamentary standards watchdog into these undeclared gifts.
Per my colleague Andrew Sparrow, Farage has been trying to regain the narrative amid the sleaze allegations against him but whether this will allow Reform UK to regain momentum in the polls (it has been flatlining, or going down slightly, for months) is a different matter entirely.
His resignation as an MP means the inquiries into his finances will probably be paused, but could be resumed if deemed proportionate after the by-election. If he were to be suspended as a result, there could even be a second by-election after that.
Farage’s opponents are accusing him of triggering this by-election in an attempt to distract attention from the donations controversy.
A spokesperson for Andy Burnham, who is set to take over from Keir Starmer as prime minister, said it was a “gimmick designed to distract from serious allegations about Farage’s funders”, while Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, said Farage was throwing a “hissy fit”. Starmer, for his part, accused Farage of a “desperate stunt”, adding: “It’s obvious why he is doing it. He is up to his neck in sleaze.”
You can follow Andy’s blog here for more updates:
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As Jakub reported a short while ago, M1, the main public television channel in Hungary, and the Kossuth radio station have temporarily gone off-air, as part of PM Péter Magyar’s efforts to undo Viktor Orbán’s 16-year-long hold on the media.
Kossuth radio’s frequencies were broadcasting a Bartok classical music programme, AFP reports. The websites for M1 and Kossuth were also down.
And, according to a statement from Hungary’s state media umbrella group MTVA, M1 television will resume broadcasting in the evening without news programmes. News bulletins will be re-introduced gradually alongside the establishment of a new editorial team, it added.
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I am now handing the blog over to Lucy Campbell to keep you up to date with all the news this afternoon.
But I will be back for the main event – Le Pen’s prime time TV interview at 7pm UK (8pm Paris time), where she is expected to announce her plans regarding the 2027 presidential run.
Hungarian state news channel suspends broadcasting as part of post-Orbán overhaul
Meanwhile, there is a big development in Hungary, with the Hungarian state TV’s news channel going off-air with an apology for “lies” it broadcast during the 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s era.
In a post on Facebook, Hungary’s new prime minister Péter Magyar hailed the move as “a historic day.”
“Today the broadcast of propaganda on public media platforms has ended.
They lied by night. They lied by day. They lied on every channel. It’s over now.”
Viewers of Hungary’s M1 channel can only see a black screen with the following message:
“The public media cannot lie. We apologise for doing so for so many years! The public media is now transforming itself to be independent and credible in the future. News service is temporarily suspended. Stay tuned!”
Magyar repeatedly said during the campaign that we would suspend news broadcasts and overhaul the broadcaster if elected, and repeated his plan to do so in the first few days after his major election win in April (Europe Live, 15 April).
A relevant media bill advancing the proposed reforms was passed last month.
A similar scenario unfolded in Poland after the 2023 parliamentary election, with the new government using what critics say were legal loopholes to take the state news channel TVP Info off air for some time.
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And there is no public reaction from RN’s Jordan Bardella either, as he is locked in talks with Le Pen at the party HQ in Paris.
Guess we will have to wait till the evening interview to find out what’s next.
Just a reminder that we are expecting to hear from Marine Le Pen on her next steps only later tonight, as she says a prime time TV interview scheduled for 8pm Paris time (7pm UK).
Meanwhile, let’s go back to Paris and bring you some of the first reactions to today’s decision in Le Pen’s case, via Reuters.
European Parliament’s lawyer Patrick Maisonneuve:
“What is crucial for us, and what we have been saying for years, is that they have embezzled and stolen public money, European taxpayers’ money, and indeed French citizens’ money as well.
We have been saying this for years, and it has now been confirmed for the second time, first by the court and today by the Court of Appeal.”
Manon Aubry of the France Unbowed party and its European Parliament group leader:
“The RN entered politics with the slogan ‘heads held high, hands clean’; they are leaving it with ‘heads bowed, hands dirty’.
Whether it is Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella, the RN’s candidate, they are equally adept at misappropriating public funds. Marine Le Pen, moreover, is wearing an electronic tag.”
Marine Tondelier, the leader of France’s Green party:
“Contrary to what the RN has been shouting for years, there is therefore no judicial conspiracy. One could even say that she has benefited from great leniency … In a normal world where the RN had even the slightest shred of morality, she would step down from running herself. Because one cannot decently stand for election after having been convicted in this way for misappropriating public funds, even if one remains eligible.”
Left-wing MP François Ruffin from the Debout! party:
“The very fact that it even crosses our minds that Marine Le Pen might campaign whilst wearing an electronic tag is a sign that corruption is accepted in our country.”
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Trump says 'very disappointed' with Nato, who was 'not there for us' on Iran
In other comments on Europe, Trump also said he was “very disappointed” with Nato over Iran, and even suggested he wouldn’t be taking part in the summit if it wasn’t in Turkey, run by “his friend” Erdoğan.
“We’ve invested trillions of dollars in Nato. Why? To protect European countries and others, Canada, etc. but to protect people, countries from, generally speaking, it used to be the Soviet Union, now it’s Russia, and Russia, and I say that’s fine, but you would think that they’d be very willing to do something to help us, and they really weren’t.”
He pointedly criticised the UK – and the outgoing prime minister, Keir Starmer – and others, like France and Germany for their decision to not help on Iran.
“We didn’t need any help at all. And in a way, I was testing people, I was testing to see whether or not they’d be there, because … we helped them, but I’m not sure that they’d be there for us.
Italy turned us down, and Germany turned us down, and France turned us down, and it’s okay, but you know, why are we spending hundreds of billions of dollars, and they’re not there for us? We’ve always been there for them.”
Our US politics live blog is keeping a close eye on Trump’s activities in Ankara:
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Trump's comments are not new, but show how difficult this summit will be - snap analysis
All of that is obviously not new from Trump – he keeps repeating all these incendiary lines on Italy, Greenland, removing troops, and immigration regularly – but it shows his attitude ahead of tomorrow’s Nato meeting.
And it’s very much the attitude that European leaders wanted to avoid.
Expect tricky discussions and fireworks in Ankara.
Trump also spoke about Greenland, doubling down on his claim that it should be controlled by the US, not Denmark.
He pointed to US spending on deterring Russia, adding that he US did “not have to spend any money” and “could remove all of our soldiers out of Europe,” because “as you probably noticed, Europe is a very different place than it was 20 years ago” because of “immigration and energy.”
“If they are not careful with those two things, you are not going to have a Europe any more,” he said.
Trump says his relationship with Italy's Meloni 'soured a little bit' over refusal to help with Iran
Trump also got asked about his recent criticism of Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni.
He said she is “a nice person,” but their relationships “got bad” and “soured a little bit” after Italy refused to help the US in Iran.
“I think she made a mistake … She wasn’t there for us, and I wasn’t happy about that.”
Trump says Putin, Zelenskyy 'both want to make a deal' on Ukraine war
Meanwhile, US president Donald Trump has been speaking in Ankara as part of his meeting with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Asked about his meeting with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy tomorrow, he went into a long monologue on the state of the war, repeatedly praising Russia’s Vladimir Putin and his conversations with him.
But the bottom line of his point was this:
“I think they both want to make a deal. It’s too bad it took so long, but I think there’s going to be something … going to come out.”
He added:
“They both want to get it settled… I think they are going to, I think we’re going to get it settled hopefully soon.”
He also spoke about the extremely high death toll of the war, and how he wanted to end the war.
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Macron declines to comment on Le Pen ruling
France’s Emmanuel Macron has just been asked about his response to the ruling as a joint press conference with Syria’s president Ahmed al-Sharaa.
But he doesn’t take the bait when asked if the ruling is “healthy for democracy.”
He says:
“What is healthy for democracy is that the president of the Republic does not speak about judicial decisions.
Therefore, I will adhere to this principle, especially abroad.”
Details of Le Pen's tag monitoring to be decided at a later date
Paris correspondent
in Paris courtroom
In terms of process, a different judge will consider at a later date the exact workings of any electronic tag or monitoring for Le Pen.
The tag requirement could make any potential presidential campaign politically and logistically difficult.
Le Pen arrives at RN's HQ for political talks on her future
Le Pen has now arrived at the RN’s HQ in 16th arrondissement and is now believed to be meeting with Jordan Bardella and their closest aides to decide on the next steps.
For what it’s worth, after leaving the court, Le Pen is now en route to her party’s HQ now, followed by what looks like gazillion of reporters, cameras and photographers on mopeds.
The party’s president and a potential back-up presidential candidate Jordan Bardella is believed to be there, so the pair will no doubt want to discuss their next steps.
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Le Pen not expected to comment until her prime time TV interview
Paris correspondent
in Paris courtroom
Marine Le Pen and her lawyers are not expected to comment on her next steps until she appears on television news tonight at 8pm Paris time.
Le Pen’s lawyer Rodolphe Bosselut gives only a very general response to the ruling, noting the shift in the court’s approach, including the issue of eligibility to run in the 2027 election, which “is an extremely important point.”
“We are considering the decision as a whole,” he says, with more to be said on this later.
But he says he is “partially” happy with the verdict, calling it a “good start.”
But we are not an inch closer to knowing what Le Pen’s will do next.
Intriguing verdict that poses gut-wrenching personal dilemma for Le Pen - snap analysis
Europe correspondent
It’s an intriguing verdict: the court has ruled Marine Le Pen eligible to run in next year’s presidential elections by in effect reducing her term of inelegibilty for public office to just 15 months – but at the same time it has ensured it will be very difficult for her to to do so by ordering her to wear an electronic bracelet for one year, something she has repeatedly said she will not do.
It is understood that several senior party members have tried to persuade her to run anyway, but – so far at least – she has refused.
It would obviously be a gut-wrenching personal decision for her to stand aside: transforming the National Rally from a fringe extremist group to the largest single party in parliament has been pretty much her life’s work, and this would have been her fourth tilt at the presidency.
But the decision may be made easier by the fact that Jordan Bardella, her protege, is polling even higher than her – and she would be able to act as his closest adviser on the campaign trail.
Le Pen leaves court without talking to reporters
Marine Le Pen has just left the court without talking to reporters.
So we will have to wait a bit longer to know what her plans are.
Ruling shifts the decision on Le Pen's presidential run from legal to political - snap analysis
It’s a complicated ruling, so let’s take a moment to unpack it.
While the shortening of the ban on holding public office technically clears the way for her to run in the 2027 presidential election, the requirement to wear an electronic tag makes it extremely difficult – both practically and politically – for her to do so, particularly given her previous comments on the matter.
Crucially, it effectively shifts the question of whether she will run from a legal issue to a political one.
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The court’s decision effectively shortens the ban on holding public office to 15 months, with the remaining 30 months suspended.
The ban began on 31 March last year, so it will end well before the presidential election in April next year.
But the electronic tag requirement would make it all practically complicated for Le Pen to campaign – and that’s before we even consider the tricky issues of political optics and her previous comments that she would not go down this route.
But we won’t know what she will do for sure until we hear from her directly; the latest when she is expected on TF1 at 8pm French time (7pm UK).
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Paris court theoretically clears way for Le Pen presidential run, but with electronic tag, which she rejected as no-go
We are getting first lines from the Paris court, with the judge confirming Le Pen is guilty of misusing public funds, but changing her ineligiblity to hold public office to 45 months, with 30 months suspended.
This means theoretically she could run in the election.
However, she will also get a three-year jail sentence with two years suspended and one year of wearing an electronic tag, and a €100,000 fine.
For what it’s worth, she has previously repeatedly said she would not run if she would have to wear an electronic bracelet during the campaign.
“If I’m allowed to be a candidate but am effectively prevented from campaigning freely, then you understand that wouldn’t be possible,” Le Pen said in an interview last week.
If you are looking to refresh your memory and figure out what the Le Pen case is about, here is Angelique Chrisafis’s helpful explainer from last year.
The French media are stressing the same point we made earlier (13:13): we will have to wait until the very end of the ruling to know what it truly means for Le Pen.
It may take a few hours before we get there.
Meanwhile, the RN’s president and a potential back-up candidate Jordan Bardella is following the court’s decision from his office at the party headquarters.
Court in session to deliver verdict in Le Pen's appeal
Here we go! The court is now in session.
We will bring you updates as and when we get them.
Le Pen arrives in court for her appeal ruling
in Paris courtroom
Marine Le Pen has arrived in court wearing a light-coloured suit, flanked by her lawyers.
The public seats are full of key figures from the National Rally party, in court for the first time to support Le Pen, including the MPs Laure Lavalette and Jean-Philippe Tanguy.
Possible outcomes for Le Pen's appeal
Europe correspondent
Observers have outlined several possible outcomes for Marine Le Pen.
Le Pen’s best-case scenario – deemed by most analysts the least likely – would be acquittal. She acknowledged “a mistake” during the appeal trial, saying some staff paid as EU aides had worked in France, but said she believed such work was allowed.
The court could also find Le Pen guilty, but shorten the ban on holding elected office to two years or less, or lift it altogether. Because the lower court ordered the ban to take immediate effect, Le Pen has been serving it since 31 March last year.
A ban of two years or less, therefore, would expire before the first round of the vote, due on 18 April 2027 – although that does not mean she would definitely run, since any jail term or electronic monitoring would severely hinder her ability to campaign.
“If I’m allowed to be a candidate, but am effectively prevented from campaigning freely – then you understand, that wouldn’t be possible,” Le Pen told French television last week.
I can’t be dependent on a judge to authorise me to campaign.
The appeals court could also order any electoral ban to take immediate effect, as the lower court did. In theory, Le Pen could then appeal to France’s highest court, the court of cassation, which has previously said that it would rule before the election.
However, she has previously said she would be unlikely to take her appeal further, arguing that the uncertainty would jeopardise her party’s chances. “You can’t launch a presidential campaign at the last minute,” Le Pen said during the appeal trial.
Polls suggest that both Le Pen – who transformed the RN from a fringe nationalist movement to the single biggest party in France’s parliament – and Bardella would comfortably win the first round of the 2027 election to reach the runoff.
What to expect from Le Pen ruling in the coming hours?
A word of caution ahead of the Le Pen judgment, which is expected soon.
It could take several hours to read in full – there are 11 defendants on trial, not just Le Pen – meaning updates will arrive in stages.
We need to be cautious about making inferences from partial rulings. Essentially, nothing is confirmed until the entire verdict is delivered.
Our Paris correspondent, Angelique Chrisafis, is in the courtroom and we will together bring you incremental updates here, but just be mindful that we will have to wait until the text is read out in its entirety before drawing any final conclusions.
We may also have to wait a while to hear from Le Pen herself, whichever way the ruling goes.
If she does not speak outside the courtroom, she is expected to appear on TF1 News at 8pm French time (7pm BST).
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Marine Le Pen’s political future at stake with ruling on electoral ban this afternoon
Europe correspondent
Let’s turn our attention to Paris, where we are expecting the reading of the ruling in the Le Pen appeal to start in the next half hour.
Just a reminder of what’s at stake:
Le Pen, France’s far-right figurehead and a leading contender for its presidency, will learn whether she can run in next year’s presidential election when a Paris appeals court rules on her attempt to overturn a ban on holding elected office.
Last year, Le Pen was handed a five-year ban from public office and a four-year prison sentence, with two years suspended, for embezzling European parliament funds.
Along with 24 former MEPs, assistants and accountants, as well as the party itself, the three-time presidential candidate was found guilty of operating a system that used European parliament funds to employ RN staff in France between 2004 and 2016.
Le Pen claimed her party was the victim of a “witch-hunt” and, with 11 others, appealed, denying during the second trial that her party had any system to embezzle the several million euros concerned and saying that it had acted in “complete good faith”.
Today we will learn about the outcome of that appeal.
The ruling will determine whether the far-right National Rally (RN) candidate to succeed the outgoing president, Emmanuel Macron, will be the veteran Le Pen, 57, or her youthful protege, Jordan Bardella, 30.
With her party comfortably ahead in the polls, Le Pen, who came third in the 2012 race and lost runoffs to Macron in 2017 and 2022, has insisted she is prepared for any eventuality.
Russia following Nato summit with 'great interest,' Kremlin spokesperson says
Meanwhile, the Kremlin said it would closely monitor the Nato summit in Turkey, saying it remained of “great interest” to Russia.
But Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov lamented that a series of “confrontational” statements about Russia had preceded the event, without really clarifying what he means by that.
The Nato event is now moving to panels with industry experts, so we will probably tune out for a bit, but you can continue watching our live stream below.
We are separately expecting to hear from Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy fairly soon.
And we will soon need to move across to Paris for the major Le Pen ruling (9:44) which is expected to start in about an hour…
Turkey’s vice-president and defence minister Cevdet Yılmaz is speaking next, very much along the same lines.
He understandably also talks about the importance of Turkey in the process as “one of the defence exports around the globe,” saying “hopefully Turkey will be in the first league if we continue with the football analogy.”
Rutte comes back to his strained football analogy again, saying that the winning teams need to “prepare, train, invest, and build trust” and “that is exactly what we must continue to do.”
“The partnership between Nato and industry is the winning one. So now let’s deliver even more, even faster, and together.”
And he ends his speech here.
'The hum of machinery must become a roar,' as Russia, China, North Korea 'increasingly working together' and 'do not have our best interests in mind,' Rutte warns
Rutte continues with the football analogy talking about additional military production space in the alliance and comparing it to football pitches. No, me neither.
But he says that all this ramping up of production is significant, and the alliance is making “real progress.”
“The strategy is clear, but the match is far from over, and to win it, we need all team members to pull their weight, do more, faster, together. We do not have the luxury of time.”
He says Russia is “pouring almost half of its national budget into its war machine,” while China “continues to modernise its armed forces and expand its nuclear capabilities without transparency,” and North Korea supporting Russia.
“We must remain vigilant. These countries are increasingly working together, and that should concern us all, because I assure you they do not have our best interests in mind.”
He says Nato needs “a transatlantic defence industrial revolution” to respond to that, and “the hum of machinery must become a roar.”
“That sounds dramatic, but it can be done.”
He also says that Nato allies need to deregulate in procurement and work on cross-border solutions to move faster.
He also praises Ukraine, saying they “continue to innovate at incredible speed,” including on “unparalleled drone ecosystem.”
He also pointedly pays tribute to other partner countries, including Japan.
Beginning with a unnaturally forced World Cup reference, Nato’s secretary general Rutte begins by saying that “no team wins because of one brilliant player.”
“We need a goalkeeper, you need the defenders, the midfielders, the strikers, and yes, everyone notices the player who scores the winning goal, but behind every successful player and team out on the pitch there are many others on the bench and behind the scenes the coaches, the trainers, the analysts, the people making sure everything works.
Everyone matters, no one wins alone. Nato is much the same.”
He says you need political leaders to set the direction, and armed forces and defence industry to work hand in hand to be “fully engaged in the game, working together for our shared security.”
Unsuprisingly, he eventually concludes the teamwork at Nato is absolutely brilliant.
“This is a team that knows how to score.”
He then moves on to the summary of what Nato achieved in the last year, as it ramped up its defence spending after the previous summit in The Hague.
“The money is there, and much more is coming. But this cash must be put to work,” he says.
Rutte speaks in Ankara as Nato two-day summit gets under way
The opening speeches are now under way in Ankara, and you can watch them below.
This is the Day 1 industry event, not the leaders’ summit, mind you.
We are expecting Nato’s Mark Rutte to speak next.
Updated
'Important work' at Nato summit with focus on drone deals, air defence, Zelenskyy says
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy has landed in Ankara, too.
In a post on X, he said “important work lies ahead” in the Turkish capital, as he hoped for “a strong and productive Nato summit.”
“Decisions are needed now that will provide greater protection for our people, more capabilities for our defence, and even stronger security cooperation between Ukraine, Europe, and the United States.”
Zelenskyy said he would attend “nearly twenty” bilateral meetings and sign “new drone deals,” with focus on bolstering Ukraine’s air defence amid continuing Russian attacks.
“New systems, missiles for them, and the issue of production licenses – all of this is our priority,” he said.
The Nato event in Ankara will pick up this afternoon when we are expecting to see – and hear from – more leaders as they arrive for their official dinner tonight, with the summit proper starting tomorrow.
Here are some of the arrivals this morning:
Canada’s Mark Carney arrived really early this morning, for example, and already met with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
But for now, it’s mostly industry speeches and announcements on new arm deals to strengthen the alliance.
But we are expecting to hear from Nato’s secretary general Mark Rutte in the next half hour or so, and I will bring you the key lines from his speech.
'I slept really well last night. And you?,' Belgian PM's cat mocks Trump after World Cup win, ahead of Nato summit
in Brussels
And Maximus has spoken.
The official Instagram account of the Belgian prime minister’s cat has offered a typically oblique response to the national team’s triumph over the US, following Donald Trump’s controversial intervention.
Maximus, the beloved cat of Belgian prime minister Bart De Wever, was shown on Instagram lying on a rug holding a soft toy in the image of the US president.
“I slept really well last night. And you?’
reads the speech bubble in Dutch.
Maximus’ Instagram account is managed by De Wever’s team and often strays into political territory, with sardonic, albeit indirect comments on fellow politicians or events.
De Wever’s spokesperson on Monday declined to comment on Trump’s controversial and successful lobbying to overturn a red card given to US striker Falorin Balogun.
Instead local media were referred to another Maximus post, which offered a picture of the cat crouching by a red card: “Red card: I am going to play anyway!” read the speech bubble.
De Wever and Trump will both attend the Nato summit starting in Ankara later on Tuesday, although the Belgian leader will be on less comfortable ground. Belgium has pledged to meet Nato’s 5% of GDP defence spending target, but was forecast to meet the 2% spending target only in 2025 after years of delay.
Updated
The Nato summit in Ankara comes amid somewhat tense relations between Europe and the US president, Donald Trump.
Since the start of this year, when he threatened to take control of Greenland from Nato member Denmark, Trump has continued to strain relations with US allies. He failed to consult European leaders before the US and Israel launched their economically disastrous attack on Iran, and then complained when they did not allow US jets to bomb Iran from their territory.
And, most recently, he has been involved in a personal spat with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.
In the last few days, even the most fundamental issue of football became politically sensitive after a somewhat bizarre decision to overturn a red card for the USMNT’s Balogun ahead of their game versus Belgium last night, following a reported intervention by Trump.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio joked yesterday that he could even bring it up with the Belgian delegation when they meet at the Nato summit in Ankara.
Well, I doubt he will be doing that now.
Let’s say that the Belgian national team thoroughly enjoyed their 4-1 win last night, with a specific barb against the president’s actions and mocking celebrations for the last goal.
But, but, but that’s not the end of it, politically, as the most important resident of Belgium also weighed in on the result. And no, it’s not the king.
For more, let’s quickly go to Jennifer Rankin, our Brussels correspondent.
At least 18 people injured in Damascus explosions near Macron's hotel
We are getting first reports from Damascus, saying at least 18 people, including four police officers, were injured in the explosions reported earlier.
One of the bombs was placed in a bin and the other in a vehicle near the Four Seasons Hotel where Macron spent the night, a Syrian security source told AFP, requesting anonymity.
The explosions are the second since Thursday, when 10 people were killed in a bombing in a Damascus cafe.
The Élysée Palace confirmed earlier that Macron was safe and unaffected by the incident (10:09), and carried on with his programme.
Updated
Nato announces plans to invest in antidrone, surveillance capabilities
Meanwhile over in Ankara, Nato keeps announcing new investments with hype videos set to dynamic stock music, including $40bn on antidrone capabilities.
The alliance will also purchase up to 10 Saab GlobalEye surveillance plans to replace its ageing fleet of AWACS early warning aircraft, Rutte said, choosing the Swedish company over US planemaker Boeing, Reuters reported.
Nato will also buy up to five Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton high altitude surveillance drones, with Norway, Finland, Germany and Denmark signing a letter of intent for the purchase.
The allies will also work together to acquire, store, transport, and manage stockpiles of critical defence materials, Rutte said.
Updated
Reports of explosions in Damascus, Syria, during France's Macron visit
I am also keeping an eye on reports of explosions in Damascus, Syria, shortly after the French president, Emmanuel Macron, entered the presidential palace to meet Syrian president Ahmad al-Sharaa.
The explosions reportedly happened near the Four Seasons Hotel, where it was reported that Macron spent the night.
But the Élysée Palace said Macron is safe and did not hear the explosions, as he was already out on his way for the meeting with al-Sharaa.
I will bring you more on this when we know more.
Europe faces up to prospect US may be unable to arm Nato allies
in Washington
There are growing concerns in Europe that the US defence industrial base is no longer providing the weapons pledged to Nato allies with US stockpiles depleted owing to the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, leaving allies to consider new avenues to arm and defend themselves.
As Nato leaders including the US president, Donald Trump, convene in Ankara, Turkey, the US plans to address European defence spending and concerns over the Trump administration’s future commitment to the military alliance.
The US this year has delayed or cancelled deliveries of a series of key arms shipments to countries in Europe, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, Himars mobile rocket artillery and desperately needed Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles, of which the US used an estimated 50% through April of this year during its war with Iran.
They are crucial for countering the threat of missile strikes in Ukraine and would also be needed for the defence of Europe in case of an armed conflict with Russia.
The shortages have also angered European capitals, which have quietly seethed while seeking to avoid direct conflicts with the Trump administration in order to prevent a broader collapse in transatlantic relations.
Morning opening: Nato summit gets under way with focus on spending, capabilities
Nato leaders, including the moody US president Donald Trump, are set to meet in Ankara, Turkey today and tomorrow for the latest round of talks on transatlantic defence.
As our defence and security editor Dan Sabbagh says, there has been “a remarkable effort behind the scenes at Trump-proofing whatever happens in Ankara” given his tendency to go into angry outbursts directed at the allies.
In one particularly amusing paragraph, Dan says that:
“Trump is expected to bring 1,400 people with him to Turkey, including those responsible for bringing back his toilet waste – a standard protocol to prevent other countries analysing the material for intelligence about his health. That the US is coming in large numbers is seen as a relief, given that Trump has at times flirted with the idea of leaving Nato, including at a summit in 2018.”
The day begins with the Nato Defence Industry Forum, a trade summit covering the latest round of announcements from the allies in new capabilities, including a strategic airlift of transport planes and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance machines.
But the real drama will begin this afternoon, as US president Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy ahead of the summit.
We should hear from Zelenskyy later today, and see Trump when he arrives in Turkey and goes to the Turkish presidential palace for early talks before the formal dinner this evening.
BUT, BUT, BUT… we are also expecting a major development in France, where Marine Le Pen, France’s far-right figurehead and a leading contender for its presidency, will learn on Tuesday whether she can run in next year’s election when a Paris appeals court rules on her attempt to overturn a ban on holding elected office.
Last year, Le Pen was handed a five-year ban from public office and a four-year prison sentence, with two years suspended, for embezzling European parliament funds. Today we will learn about the outcome of her appeal.
As Jon Henley reports from Paris,
“The ruling will determine whether the far-right National Rally (RN) candidate to succeed the outgoing president, Emmanuel Macron, will be the veteran Le Pen, 57, or her youthful protege, Jordan Bardella, 30.”
The court is expected to start delivering the verdict early afternoon – around 1.30pm local time, so 12.30 London time – and it is likely to take some time before we get all the details. We will bring you all the latest here.
Lots for us to cover today. Stay with us throughout the day.
It’s Tuesday, 7 July 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
