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NATO on Wednesday showed no sign it would be willing to invite Ukraine to join its ranks anytime soon as allies sought more information from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about his “victory plan” for ending the war with Russia.
The plan centers on a request for NATO to move forward on the “accelerated” membership application that Zelenskyy made two years ago to seek protection under the military alliance's security umbrella after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
NATO’s credibility is based on its collective security guarantee, Article 5 of its founding treaty. It’s a political commitment by all 32 member countries to come to the aid of any member whose sovereignty or territory might be under attack.
However, it does not apply to a partner country like Ukraine.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte declined to welcome the “victory plan,” saying only that he and the allies “take note” of it. He did not discuss when Ukraine might join the world’s biggest military alliance, beyond insisting that it would become a member.
“The plan has many aspects and many political and military issues we really need to hammer out with the Ukrainians to understand what is behind it, to see what we can do, what we cannot do,” Rutte said in his muted response at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
“We are in close contact with allies, with Ukraine, to see how we can take next steps,” he added. He declined to provide details about what more NATO wants to know, telling reporters only: “I cannot give you all the insights about that.”
For now, Rutte said, the focus must be on helping Ukraine to win back more territory and strengthen its hand for any future peace negotiations.
Zelenskyy is due to explain elements of his plan on Thursday to leaders of the European Union, most of whom also stand among NATO's ranks.
It all comes at a dark time for Ukraine. Its troops are struggling to hold off better manned and equipped Russian forces, especially in the eastern Donetsk region where they are gradually being pushed back. Kyiv is surviving with Western help, but Ukraine says it is coming too slowly.
While outlining his plan on Wednesday, Zelenskyy told Ukrainian lawmakers that granting the country a NATO invitation would be a “testament of (allies’) determination” to support its efforts.
“An invitation is a strong decision that requires nothing but determination,” he said.
Ukraine’s future in NATO is something the alliance has weighed for 16 years.
At their summit in Washington in July, the 32 members declared Ukraine on an “irreversible” path to membership. To the uninitiated, however, little seems to have progressed since NATO leaders promised Ukraine and Georgia in 2008 that “these countries will become members of NATO” one day.
For now, NATO is in a holding pattern. Its biggest and most powerful member, the United States, is facing a presidential election. European allies expect little movement on Ukraine until a new president takes office in January.
Beyond that, the United States and European heavyweight Germany remain deeply concerned about being dragged into a wider war with nuclear-armed Russia, and they lead a group of countries that oppose allowing Ukraine to join NATO until the conflict ends.
In any case, NATO diplomats said, Ukraine’s borders would need to be clearly demarcated before it could join so that there can be no mistaking where the Article 5 guarantee would come into effect.
Russian troops have seized about 20% of the country.
