Nato and the UK may have to contend with a more assertive presence from China in the Arctic and High North as sea lanes open up, a report has said.
Meanwhile, a US defence adviser to Nato said Russia still has “significant” defence capabilities in the region, which are increasingly engaging in “risky” behaviours like air incursions.
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank launched a report on the UK’s contribution to security in northern Europe on Tuesday.
It noted the UK is increasingly prioritising this region, saying the UK is a “heavyweight” which provides specialist military capabilities which can match threats posed by Russia.
There has been growing Sino-Russian cooperation in the High North, which is loosely defined as the Arctic region and the seas surrounding it.
Meanwhile, climate change means the northern sea route which links Europe and Asia is becoming increasingly navigable to shipping.
The RUSI report said: “This transformational geopolitical change will directly link the UK’s two priority geographic ‘strategic arenas’ – politically, economically and militarily – which will fundamentally impact UK and Euro-Atlantic security.
“Given this, Nato may have not only to contend with Russia, but also with a more assertive Chinese presence in the Arctic and High North.”
Westminster’s Scottish Affairs Committee recently recommended a reassessment of the defence presence in Scotland in light of new threats in the High North, as well as dangers to pipelines and undersea infrastructure.
During a panel discussion at RUSI’s offices on Tuesday, representatives from the UK, the US and Norway highlighted the importance their governments placed on the region.
Rachel Ellehuus, the senior civilian representative of the US defence department in Europe, said Russia had developed a “reliance” on China for economic help following the war in Ukraine.
Despite losses among Russia’s conventional forces, she said Russia still has a large military presence in the region and may grant China more access as a reciprocal deal.
Ms Ellehuus said: “The reality is there are some pretty significant air and maritime capabilities in that region.
“The Bastion (a Russian defence concept) is centred around the Kola peninsula, so Russia’s strategic forces are based there.
“So the reliance on that region to project power and influence is only going to grow.”
She continued: “We’ve seen that on the defence side with more risky behaviours from the Russians.
“The number of unsafe air incursions, unsafe maritime manoeuvres and suspect ships has really taken off.
“At the same time we have less of a reliable communication channel, so that’s something we really need to watch.”
Mette Birkelund O’Connor, a counsellor at the Norwegian embassy in London, said Russia had modernised its military capabilities in the region.
She said that during an exercise in August this year, the Russian navy demonstrated the ability to isolate the Scandinavian peninsula and disrupt transatlantic shipping.
