The risk of blackouts in Great Britain will be lower this winter thanks to higher gas storage levels in Europe and more nuclear power imported from France, the company responsible for keeping the lights on has said.
National Grid’s electricity system operator (ESO) said Britain was in a stronger position heading into the coldest months than it was a year ago when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had left officials scrambling for backup power.
In its winter outlook forecast, the ESO said it expected supply to outstrip peak demand by 4.4 gigawatts in its “base case” scenario.
Last year, concerns that Russia would entirely cut off gas supplies into Europe triggered a rush to fill up storage sites across the continent and campaigns encouraging businesses and consumers to cut their energy use.
In the UK, fears that a gas squeeze on the continent would have a knock-on effect led the government to keep on standby some coal plants that had been due to close, while the ESO warned there could be planned rolling three-hour power cuts. Ultimately, a single coal-fired unit was used on one occasion in the winter, and there were no power cuts.
On Thursday, the ESO said: “The broad European energy situation has improved since last year. The market has responded, bolstering European gas storage and supplies and the French nuclear fleet capacity is back to pre-pandemic levels.”
Britain imports electricity from France via subsea cables and last year several French plants underwent maintenance.
The gas system operator said it was confident of Great Britain having “sufficient” supplies this winter. It said the country will be dependent on “substantial” imports of liquified natural gas and piped Norwegian gas. If temperatures drop, imports from the EU will be required.
The ESO said gas storage is “much higher” than 12 months ago and it would take a combination of events – such as a very cold winter plus an outage on a pipeline – for the “unlikely” scenario of supply interruptions.
Although the outlook for gas and electricity supplies is better than last year, household bills will remain far higher than before the energy crisis began in late 2021. From October, 29m households in England, Wales and Scotland can expect to pay an average of £1,923 a year under the Ofgem price cap.
Household energy consumption fell sharply last winter amid high bills and a belated government campaign to encourage cuts to usage. National Grid expects consumption to be “roughly” the same this winter.
The ESO noted that last winter was mild in Europe, which led to gas prices falling significantly. However, they remain elevated compared with 2021 when a sharp spike led to the collapse of nearly 30 UK energy suppliers.
If Russia cuts off gas supplies to the continent completely or temperatures drop significantly, supplies could be tight and prices high this winter.
Last winter, the government paid to keep five coal units at Drax in North Yorkshire, and EDF and Uniper’s plants in Nottinghamshire on standby. They were largely unused and cost about £400m but the former energy secretary Grant Shapps has indicated that the government wants to keep them on standby again for the coming winter.
However, Drax and EDF have since closed their units, while Uniper’s at Ratcliffe-on-Soar – Britain’s last active coal plant – in Nottinghamshire is providing power on the open market, rather than retained as backup for use when supplies are tight.
Some power plants have been accused of “manipulating” the market to balance power supply and demand, leaving the ESO paying above market average to keep the lights on. The ESO said it had paid £79m a month less in balancing costs in 2023, compared with 2022, a 26% decrease driven by lower wholesale prices and actions to cut costs.
The grid also plans to restart its demand flexibility service – first trialled last winter – that will see businesses and consumers paid to reduce their energy usage at peak times.
About 1.6m households and businesses received payments to help reduce the pressure on the National Grid last winter. The ESO plans to run 12 test runs of the service this winter, and may also employ the tactic if supplies become constrained.
