The national average price of gas jumped 12 cents a gallon Monday following President Donald Trump’s airstrikes on Iran.
The hike comes as oil and gas experts warned that most Americans will likely see an increase at the pumps after Trump initiated a bombing campaign over the weekend.
The national average price of gas has risen above $3 per gallon for the first time in 2026, with every state except Hawaii seeing higher prices than this time last month, according to GasBuddy data.
Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy said that Monday’s gas price increase was the “largest single-day rise since March 4, 2022,” while diesel had climbed to $3.86 per gallon early Tuesday, the highest level since May 2024.
“For diesel consumers – truckers – you're going to see more of an impact,” de Haan said in a video explainer. “The price of diesel may rise anywhere from 25 to 50 cents over the next week or two. And that is going to really be an additional cost for the U.S. economy.”
As of Tuesday morning, de Haan estimated that the average price of gas would soon likely climb to $3.30 to $3.35 per gallon, while diesel could be closer to $4.25 to $4.45. “Any further changes in markets will change this, but if everything held still, that's where we'd likely be,” he said.
Iran is a major oil producer and tankers have ground to a halt through the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway in the Persian Gulf. A fifth of the world’s oil passes through the narrow passageway but the conflict is stopping vessels from transiting through.
“Even without confirmed large-scale physical disruption, the Strait — which handles over 20 percent of global crude flows — is effectively acting as a choke point,” de Haan explained. “When risk rises around that corridor, markets price in the possibility of constrained flows immediately.”
“Risk alone can function like a supply restriction,” de Haan added. “That is why we’re seeing oil prices jump.”
The expert said that the industry is waiting on oil producers and the Trump administration to “come up with a plan” to secure the Strait. “This is getting more attention and there will be growing pressure to address it urgently,” de Haan said in a post on X.
Oil has surged to above $80 a barrel from around $70 last week, which could have an impact on inflation and interest rates down the line.
Just last month, Trump boasted about how his administration’s “pro-America policies are bringing energy prices way down.”
“You see what's happening even with gasoline,” Trump said at a White House event. “I was in Iowa last week and it was $1.85 a gallon and many of them are $1.99 and $1.91… I saw we have them under $2 a gallon now a little while ago. Just a year and a half ago, they were at $3.50.”
