April Nymex natural gas (NGJ24) on Friday closed -0.025 (-1.34%).
Nat-gas prices on Friday settled moderately lower. The outlook for above-average U.S. winter temperatures to persist is weighing on nat-gas prices. On Friday, NOAA said warm spring weather for the central and eastern U.S. regions will last into the middle of the month, which will curb heating demand for nat-gas and keep supplies elevated.
Nat-gas prices have collapsed this year and plunged to a 3-1/2 year nearest-futures low (H24) this week as an unusually mild winter curbed heating consumption for nat-gas and pushed inventories well above average. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said there is a greater than 55% chance the current El Nino weather pattern will remain strong in the Northern Hemisphere through March, keeping temperatures above average and weighing on nat-gas prices. AccuWeather said El Nino will limit snowfall across Canada this season in addition to causing above-normal temperatures across North America.
Nat-gas prices are also under pressure Friday from the announcement by the Freeport LNG nat-gas export terminal in Texas that one of its three production units will remain shut down until at least the middle of March after extreme cold in Texas damaged equipment. The unit's closure will limit U.S. nat-gas exports and increase U.S. nat-gas inventories.
Lower-48 state dry gas production Friday was 100.2 bcf/day (+0.4% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Friday was 87.3 bcf/day (+3.8% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals Friday were 14.1 bcf/day (+1.1% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in U.S. electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended February 24 rose +1.7% y/y to 75,613 GWh (gigawatt hours), although cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending February 24 was unchanged y/y at 4,101,977 GWh.
Thursday's weekly EIA report was mixed for nat-gas prices as nat-gas inventories for the week ended February 23 fell -96 bcf, a larger draw than expectations of -85 bcf but a much smaller draw than the five-year average for this time of year of -143 bcf. As of February 23, nat-gas inventories were up +12.3% y/y and were +26.5% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 63% full as of February 26, above the 5-year seasonal average of 47% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending March 1 fell by -1 rig to 119 rigs, moderately above the 2-year low of 113 rigs posted September 8. Active rigs have fallen back since climbing to a 4-1/2 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022 from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
