Sep Nymex natural gas (NGU24) on Monday closed up by +0.046 (+2.15%).
Sep nat-gas prices on Monday climbed to a 2-1/2 week high on Friday and settled moderately higher. Forecasts for hotter US temperatures that will boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to run air conditioning pushed prices higher Monday. The Commodity Weather Group said Monday that forecasts had shifted hotter in the eastern and southwestern parts of the US for August 17-21. Nat-gas prices Monday also garnered some carryover support from a rally in European nat-gas prices to an 8-month high.
Last Monday, nat-gas prices tumbled to a 3-1/2 month nearest futures low on forecasts for cooler US weather amid elevated nat-gas stockpiles. Current US nat-gas supplies are abundant, with nat-gas inventories +14.9% above their 5-year seasonal average as of August 2.
Lower-48 state dry gas production Monday was 100.9 bcf/day (-1.0% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Monday was 75.1 bcf/day (+0.3% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Monday were 12.7 bcf/day (-2.3% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total US electricity output in the week ended August 3 rose +3.28% y/y to 98,465 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending August 3 rose +2.13% y/y to 4,148,013 GWh.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended August 2 rose by +21 bcf, below expectations of +25 bcf and below the 5-year average build for this time of year of +38 bcf. As of August 2, nat-gas inventories were up +7.9% y/y and were +14.9% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 86% full as of August 4, above the 5-year seasonal average of 77% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending August 9 fell -1 rig to match the 3-year low of 97 rigs from June 28. Active rigs have fallen back since posting a 5-year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022, up from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
