June Nymex natural gas (NGM24) on Monday closed up by +0.053 (+2.47%).
June nat-gas prices on Monday rallied to a 3-1/2 month nearest-futures high and closed moderately higher. Gas prices have carryover support from last Friday when Baker Hughes reported that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending May 3 fell by -3 rigs to a 2-1/2 year low, which signals a reduction in US nat-gas production in the near term.
Nat-gas prices maintained their gains on the outlook for warm US temperatures to boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power air-conditioning usage. On Monday, the Commodity Weather Group said it expects above-normal temperatures along the West Coast to spread into the center of the country from May 11-15.
Nat gas prices on April 26 tumbled to a 3-3/4 year nearest-futures low (NGK24) due to ample US nat-gas supplies and mild spring temperatures. Nat-gas prices collapsed after an unusually mild winter curbed heating consumption for nat-gas and pushed inventories well above average.
Nat-gas prices were under pressure after the Freeport LNG nat-gas export terminal in Texas on March 1 shut down one of its three production units due to damage from extreme cold in Texas. The unit recently reopened on a partial basis. However, Freeport said that once the production unit is fully reopened, the other two units will be taken down for maintenance, and all three units will not return online until late May. The lack of full capacity of the Freeport export terminal limits US nat-gas exports and boosts US nat-gas inventories.
Lower-48 state dry gas production Monday was 98.9 bcf/day (-1.8% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Monday was 66.5 bcf/day (+9.0% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Monday were 12.4 bcf/day (-4.3% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total US electricity output in the week ended April 27 rose +1.81% y/y to 69,594 GWh (gigawatt hours), although cumulative US electricity output in the 52-week period ending April 27 fell -0.2% y/y to 4,097,611 GWh.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was neutral for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended April 26 rose by +59 bcf, close to expectations of +58 bcf but below the 5-year average build for this time of year of +72 bcf. As of April 26, nat-gas inventories were up +20.4% y/y and were +34.9% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 62% full as of April 29, above the 5-year seasonal average of 47% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending May 3 fell by -3 rigs to a 2-1/2 year low of 102 rigs. Active rigs have fallen since climbing to a 4-1/2 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022 from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
