NASA raises the odds that an asteroid could hit the moon in 2032

A small brown sphere sits in front of a gray sphere over a dark background.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, once considered the highest impact risk to Earth ever recorded, is back in the spotlight — this time due to a slight increase in the chance that it could impact the moon in 2032.

Although now too distant to observe from Earth, the asteroid briefly came into view in May for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Using data from the telescope's Near-Infrared Camera, a team led by Andy Rivkin of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory refined predictions of where 2024 YR4 will be on Dec. 22, 2032 by nearly 20%. That revised trajectory nudged the odds of a lunar impact from 3.8% to 4.3%, according to a NASA update.