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Politics
Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of Pretoria

Namibia’s game-changing 2024 elections: Swapo might face defeat for the first time since independence in 1990

The former liberation movement South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo) has been in firm political control of Namibia since independence in 1990.

Support for the party in the national assembly and presidential elections reached a high point in November 2014. The 2019 elections marked a turning point, however: Swapo lost its two-thirds-majority in parliament. President Hage Geingob was re-elected with the worst result yet – 56% – from 87% in 2014. This reflected disappointment over the unfulfilled promises he had made. Votes shifted to his Swapo comrade Panduleni Itula. After being expelled from the party in 2020, Itula founded the Independent Patriots for Change.

Itula, contesting as an “independent candidate” without party nomination, managed to snatch 30% of the votes from Geingob. Swapo’s downward trend was confirmed by a dramatic decline in support in the 2020 regional and local elections.

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