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Chicago Sun-Times
Chicago Sun-Times
National
John Grochowski | For the Sun-Times

‘My Favorite Toy’ can project just about any stat you’d like

Jose Abreu Jason Heyward Miguel Cabrera Tim Anderson Willson Contreras Cubs

Right up until the Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera singled Saturday against the Rockies, the career assessment calculator at ESPN.com listed him with a 97% chance of reaching 3,000 hits.

Why so low? The calculator uses a formula Bill James has called ‘‘My Favorite Toy’’ since its introduction in his 1980s ‘‘Baseball Abstract.’’ The chance of reaching a target is limited to 97% in one season. There’s the chance of an injury or other career-ending event before the milestone is achieved.

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