Closing summary
in Munich
… and on that note, it’s a wrap for today!
The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has sought to reassure European leaders that ending the transatlantic era is “not out goal nor our wish,” but urged them to leave behind the postwar “delusions” on trade (9:07), deindustrialisation, green policies and mass migration (9:10, 9:16).
Rubio insisted that “Americans may sometimes come off as a little direct and urgent in our counsel” as they “care deeply about Europe” (9:13), as he says the US “do not want our allies to be weak, because that makes us weaker” (9:20).
He said the US was intent on building a new world order, adding “while we are prepared, if necessary, to do this alone, it is our preference and it is our hope to do this together with you, our friends here in Europe”.
Earlier today,
Ukraine wants security guarantees for a minimum of 20 years from the US before it can sign a peace deal with dignity, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said ahead of talks next week with Russia and the US.
In an earlier speech, he said that “none of our people chose to be heroes” (12:28) as he described the everyday life under Russian attacks (12:11), urged Europe to “stand up to Russia” (12:36) and warned against any half-baked deal with Russia saying it would be an “illusion” to think it would stop Putin from attacking again in the future (12:40).
Later in the evening, Zelenskyy held bilateral talks with US secretary of state Marco Rubio (20:52) and spoke on the phone with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner (21:15).
Meanwhile,
The UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, said there was an urgent need for a closer UK defence relationship with Europe (10:42, 10:56), so that the UK would be at the centre of a stronger European defence setup and economic revival (10:46), insisting “we are not the Britain of the Brexit years any more” (10:33).
Starmer said “the new normal” required Europe to “take primary responsibility for its own defence” (10:37), as “the solidity of peace” was “softening” amid “warning signs” from Russia (10:31).
Separately,
The Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, condemned “totally unacceptable” pressure on Greenland amid continuing US interest in taking over the semi-autonomous territory (19:07).
The Greenlandic prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, said it was “outrageous” to see the Greenlanders threatened by a Nato ally (19:12), as he warned about setting a broader precedent in international relations.
Their comments came a day after they held a brief meeting with the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, on the sidelines of the conference.
Finally,
Late Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny was poisoned by Russia with a deadly toxic found in the skin of Ecuador dart frogs, “highly likely” leading to his death, the UK Foreign Office said (14:06).
The disclosure came at the same conference at which the news of his passing broke two years ago (14:28).
And the quote of the day award today goes to Poland’s Radosław Sikorski for his answer on a question on how Poland and Nato would respond to a Russian attack on its territory (17:07).
And that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa, for today.
If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
Munich Security Conference day 2 - in pictures
Zelenskyy spoke with US envoys Witkoff, Kushner ahead of next round of talks
As expected (18:00), Zelenskyy also spoke with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, ahead of next week’s trilateral talks in Gevena.
In a short statement, he said they “discusses some developments following the meetings in Abu Dhabi,” but noted that “not everything can be disclosed over the phone.”
He also debriefed them on his meeting with Rubio, and thanked again for the US support for Ukraine.
Zelenskyy spoke with Rubio discussing Russian attacks, diplomatic peace process
More importantly, before coming to the dinner, Zelenskyy also met with the US secretary of state Marco Rubio.
In a brief statement on Telegram, the Ukrainian president said he informed Rubio “about the situation on the frontline, ongoing Russian attacks, and the consequences of the [Russian] attacks on the energy system”.
He said the pair also “discussed in detail the diplomatic process and trilateral meetings” including the upcoming meeting in Geneva next week.
It’s a pretty standard statement; let’s see what, if anything, we are going to get from the US side.
Updated
in Munich
At the award event, Zelenskyy delivered a short, courteous speech, thanking several European leaders by first name for their support, and saying the Ukrainian people – on whose behalf he collected the award – will know them well and remember their support.
He’s not staying for the dinner, though – seems that he’s not done with the government business for tonight.
Updated
in Munich
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy is at the Munich Residence, where he is due to receive the Ewald von Kleist Award for 2026 shortly.
In a brief statement to the press, standing alongside Bavaria’s Markus Söder and the MSC chair Wolfgang Ischinger as well as Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk, he thanks Germany for its continuing support, saying it is now the largest donor of help to the wartorn country.
He also says that he was glad to visit the joint German-Ukrainian drone production facility yesterday, where he received the first produced drone. He says it is “already on the battlefield”.
Poland’s Tusk, who will deliver laudatory remarks at the ceremony later, said that “for Ukraine, there is no prize, even Nobel peace prize is not enough” for what it suffered during the Russian aggression.
He adds:
“Some say that Ukraine should be grateful for everything. The truth is, exactly the opposite: the rest of us should be grateful to you.”
Updated
Europe needs to be able to respond to several crises simultaneously, Danish PM says
In a pretty stark warning, Denmark’s Frederiksen says that Europe radically needs to step up its ability “to tackle more crises at the same time, because the old world is not coming back.”
“Forget about tackling one crisis [at a time]. We have to be able to tackle all of them at the same time,” she says.
“I’m sorry to say, I think it’s a part of the strategy from different parts of the world right now to throw as many conflicts as many discussions, as many tweets, as many messages as possible on the table at the same time, so everybody is running around like a chicken without head,” she says.
That’s why Europe needs to find out to approach these issues in a more strategic way, she says.
That concludes this panel.
Updated
US threats on Greenland 'damage' Nato, Germany's Pistorius says
German defence minister Boris Pistorius joins in condemnations of US aggressive policy towards Greenland, as he says:
“[That] the biggest ally of the [Nato] alliance threatens and questions the territorial sovereignty and integrity of another ally – this is incredible and damages the alliance … which has been the most successful alliance in the history of mankind.”
'Outrageous' to see Greenlandic people feel unsafe because of ally's behaviour, Greenlandic PM says
Greenlandic prime minister Nielsen says picks up the issue of pressure on the Greenlandic people.
“If I think about my people, we are so proud. We live in a harsh environment, we are resilient, we live in a land where nobody was able to live for many, many, many years. There’s a reason why we are the ones left,” he says to some laughs in the room.
He says there is a broader principle at stake here, about whether it is legitimate to make other territories “a puzzle in a big game” of global powers.
“What would prevent, if they did that, the US, Russia and China to split up the world in three big blocks? … it’s outrageous,” he says.
He picks up on Frederiksen’s comments:
“The paradox is that the Greenlandic people have never felt threatened, and [now] the first time they feel unsafe for real, [it is] … with an ally talked about acquiring them, buying them and so on. It’s outrageous,” he says.
Updated
Pressure on Greenland is 'totally unacceptable,' Danish PM says
Frederiksen gets asked (again) if Trump is still interested in acquiring Greenland, and she confirms that “unfortunately, the desire is the same”.
She says “it is something we, of course, talk a lot about”, and she adds that “the pressure on Greenland is totally unacceptable”.
“We are talking about threats, but as you Jens-Frederik often say, the people of Greenland have never been threatened before by anyone, so that pressure is unacceptable,” she says.
She says Denmark is willing to work with the US, but “there are, of course, things that you cannot compromise on” including the respect of other state’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
She says Denmark will not compromise on that, but suggests there are other points that can be discussed, including a revision of the 1951 defence agreement with the US, which she syas offers a “very easy” way for the US to “have a stronger footprint in Greenland”.
“We don’t think it’s over. We now have a working group, we will try to see if we can find a solution, and … we will do whatever we can, but of course there are red lines that will not be crossed,” she says.
Updated
Packed room for early evening session on Arctic security
in Munich
In the meantime, an early evening panel on Arctic security is now under way over at the Bayerischer Hof – and the room is absolutely packed.
Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen says it’s not usual to see so much interest in the region’s security.
But she is “very satisfied that Nato is now working [on] security in the Arctic region in a more structured way,” and wants to see a “permanent presence” in the Arctic region, including in and around Greenland.
She says that as climate change progresses, there will be need to monitor more closely what Russia and China “will do around Greenland,” but stresses “we are not there yet” – in a clear rebuke to Trump’s (repeated) claims on this issue.
Greenlandic prime minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen strikes a similar tone, as he said that the talks about Russian and Chinese activity is premature.
“But we are not naive and we see the longer perspective when our routes in the north west and the northeast … [when] they they melt, there might be more traffic,” he says.
But he says allies are aligned, as Nato steps up its activity in the region through the new Arctic sentry mission.
in Munich
I am now at the Munich Residence, where Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy will receive the Munich Security Conference’s Ewald von Kleist Award for 2026 later tonight.
Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk will deliver laudatory remarks.
Getting into this beautiful building – the seat of government and residence of the Bavarian dukes, electors and kings from 1508 to 1918, as its website says – requires passing several security checkpoints, but it’s only understandable given numerous other senior officials are also expected to be in attendance.
I will bring you the key lines from this evening’s speeches, but there is still some time to go before then.
Updated
Zelenskyy 'still in conflict with US about lot of final aspects of deal' – Guardian's Patrick Wintour on Ukraine talks
in Munich
Zelenskyy’s comments show how much still needs to be resolved before an agreement on ending the Russian invasion on Ukraine can be agreed.
Our diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour told me that it appears that “he is still in conflict with the Americans about a lot of the final aspects of the deal”.
Looking ahead to next week’s Geneva talks, Wintour said:
“I don’t think there’s going to be any short-term progress. I don’t think Vladimir Putin feels he’s under enough pressure at the moment.”
Updated
Russia changing its chief negotiator ahead of Geneva talks could be delaying tactic, Zelenskyy says
Separately, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy has given a press briefing on the margins of the main conference in the last hour.
He said he was due to meet with the US secretary of state Marco Rubio today, and hold a phone call with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner later tonight, with his chief negotiator and former defence minister Rustem Umerov talking to them “several times a day”. Zelenskyy also met with a delegation of US senators earlier today.
He stressed it was important to engage with the US through all possible channels to ensure no one can say that Ukrainians were stalling the talks.
Zelenskyy also spoke about his expectations for the Geneva negotiations next week, saying he was surprised to hear about Russia’s decision to change the head of its delegation after the first two rounds.
He said he saw this as a potential move to delay decisions, but counted on Americans to continue talks and not let Russia force them to reopen previously resolved issues.
He also confirmed he was still seeking a political commitment to allow Ukraine into the European Union, ideally by 2027, as part of the security guarantees.
“We have to be ready, to prepare everything … technically, Ukraine has to be ready in 2027, but the date of accession depends on all these dialogues with 27 member states,” he said.
Zelenskyy was also asked if he worried he could also get poisoned by Russia, after the earlier report about Alexei Navalny
“I can’t think about Vladimir Putin and his poison ambitions, if he has them. I try not to think about it; otherwise it’s all I think about,” the said.
'A conditional offer to cooperate with Europe' – Guardian's Patrick Wintour on EU-US relations after Rubio's speech
in Munich
If you are looking for a quick summary of events so far, I caught up with our diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour who is also here at the Munich Security Conference to get his thoughts on what the events of the last 48 hours mean for the transatlantic relationship.
Here is his answer:
Updated
Poland’s Sikorski gets asked about what would Poland’s response be if Russia crossed the border and invaded its territory.
He gives this rather entertaining answer:
“We joined Nato for common defence.
If they cross the border, start killing Nato citizens, Polish citizens, we would expect the North Atlantic Council to meet and to activate the contingency plan, and after that, the plan is very easy: we win, they lose.”
And that ends this panel.
Updated
US Democratic senator Elissa Slotkin – also on the panel, in a rather awkward position of having to comment on the US policies she disagrees with – says she is “very concerned” about the 2026 US midterm elections in November.
“He [Trump] is telling us what he wants to do. He is laying it out for us, and is up to the Americans to believe him, right? That, just like in 2020, he said, If I don’t win, then it wasn’t a free and fair election. He is repeating the playbook now, threatening to put uniformed federal agents around polling locations. I mean, he’s telling us the playbook.”
She says “the question is what are we going to do as Americans to defend our democracy that we helped invent.”
Lithuania’s president Gitanas Nausėda offers a bit more insight into Russia and Belarus’s hybrid threats affecting his country.
He says Lithuania has been “exposed to different kind of hybrid attacks,” first with irregular migration which he says was an “artificially created problem by Alexander Lukashenko, sending people from the Middle East, from north Africa, to Minsk, then from Minsk to the border.”
“And we could see the officials and employees of Alexander Lukashenko’s regime instructing them how to cross the border, how to create this destabilising situation at the border,” he says.
More recently, Lithuania faced further disruptions caused by meteorological ballons sent across the border from Belarus to block the Lithuanian airspace, he says.
He says Belarus should face stricter sanctions over its role in Russia’s campaign against the west.
Ending Ukraine war is 'about who will crack first', Poland's Sikorski says
Sikorski also says that the Ukraine war is increasingly about “who will crack first” as Russia seems to be determined to test the resolve of the Ukrainian people as its own economy is under growing pressure.
He says:
“Putin says he wants peace and in a sense … every dictator and every conqueror wants peace: if you give up and you capitulate, you’ll have peace.
But the question is under what conditions, and [it seems that] Russia can tolerate Ukrainianness as a sort of provincial version of Russian folklore but Russia cannot tolerate Ukraine, or at least Putin cannot, as a nation with its own identity, history, interests, including security interests, and its own desire to integrate with other organizations than Russia’s.
The question in this war is, who will crack first?
And Ukrainians are showing that they’re not cracking on the frontline. Russian advances are tiny, and history teaches us that that bombing populations doesn’t work. The Luftwaffe didn’t break the spirit of London, the Royal Air Force didn’t break the will to fight of the people of Germany. In fact, they get stiffened.
So, the real question is when will Putin run out of resources to carry out this war, and the cracks are beginning to show in the Russian economy.”
He also goes back to his previous point as says that Europe should be at the table because the stakes are “incredibly high” not just for Ukraine, or the eastern flank of Europe.
“It is about the place of Europe in the future, and the distribution of power in the world, or in other words, who will be the third leg – it’s China, the United States, and [either] Russia or the European Union. Don’t ask me which I would prefer.”
Updated
Poland's Sikorski says Europe should get seat at Ukraine peace talks
Poland’s foreign minister Radosław Sikorski says that Europe should get a place at the table in peace talks on Ukraine as it carries by far the largest part of the burden of the war and supporting Kyiv’s resistance.
He says:
“It was natural for the US to be in the lead in these negotiations, when the US was providing the bulk of the military assistance, and the US was also brave and effective in deploying strategic intelligence to deprive the Russians of the casus belli in the days before the war and in the early days of the war.
But I would like, particularly our American guests, to know – because it’s not fully in the American infosphere – that we are now paying for this war.
The American outlay for the war for last year was close to zero. We are buying American weapons to be delivered to Ukraine. There is no package in the US Congress and that there isn’t even the prospect of a package.
If we are paying, if this is affecting our security, not just Ukraine’s, then we deserve the seat at the table, because the outcome of this war will affect us.”
Updated
'Ball in Putin's court' to move on Ukraine talks, as he's 'dragging out' talks, Pistorius says
Pistorius says that Germany will keep looking for ways to secure “a reliable peace, because Ukraine’s future is fundamental, not just to European security, but to global security.”
He says that “the ball is in Putin’s court.”
“He is the one who is dragging out negotiations and is showing no willingness to compromise. He is shifting the cost of war to his own people, but he must not be mistaken: we will continue doing everything in our power to protect Ukraine as an independent, sovereign European nation.”
He also says Ukraine will need strong, reliable security guarantees.
'Russia is driven by raw power, revisionism and egoism,' Germany's Pistorius warns
Pistorius also curiously picks up on Rubio’s speech earlier today, cautioning that:
“Yes, our international organisations have failed to solve many crises and conflicts, but the answer cannot be for a great power to go it alone. That might work in the short term, but in a world of more competing great powers, this will definitely not work in the long term.”
He says that Europe and its allies face “a highly armed and aggressive military power with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal at its disposal,” warning that “Russia is driven by raw power, revisionism and egoism.”
“Nowhere does this become more apparent than its brutal war of aggression in Ukraine,” he says.
He says Germany is responding to the challenge, amending its constitution to spend more, and reforming the army.
'Nato is becoming more European so that it can remain transatlantic,' Germany's Pistorius says
Opening, Germany’s Pistorius says that the US starting to look away from Europe isn’t entirely surprising, as “to be frank, having the United States provide for our security was never supposed to be the norm, [and] it was always an exception.”
“Naturally, exceptional arrangements never last forever. They are not meant to.”
But he says this week’s Nato ministerial meeting gives him a sense that Europe is getting realistic and pragmatic – and gives reasons to be optimistic.
“The US has made this new burden sharing very clear, and Europe is acting. Nato is becoming more European so that it can remain transatlantic,” he says.
in Munich
Next up on the main stage we have a panel on “defending Europe and supporting Ukraine” with Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius, Lithuania’s president Gitanas Nausėda, Poland’s foreign minister Radosław Sikorski, Ukraine’s foreign minister Andii Sybiha and US senator Elissa Slotkin.
Expect some good lines as pretty much all of them tend to be rather outspoken…
Meanwhile, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado is taking part in the MSC, joining online.
You can watch her panel here:
Anything that questions transatlantic relationship or threaten allies undermines Nato, Frederiksen says in apparent rebuke to Trump
Frederiksen also expressed her frustration that any disputes between allies like over Greenland could undermine the alliance more broadly.
“[It’s] only once in our history [that] we had to activate Article Five, that was because of what happened in the US. The rest of time we have been able to provide freedom, democracy, prosperity and wealth [relying] only [on] the wording of Article Five, because all our enemies know that if they attack us, they will attack all of us.
…
Maybe the most important thing … that is secured by us as political leaders, … is our unity.
Therefore to question the transatlantic relationship, or to threaten allies, or to do anything that [would] undermine the idea of Article Five [would] be a threat to all of us, So let’s stick together.
That’s my short advice.”
And that ends this panel.
Spain’s Sánchez also says that a part of the EU’s response to Russian challenges needs to be to reform the bloc and continue with its enlargement.
But he also says that Europe needs to tackle other issues than Russia, including on climate, health and inequalities.
Finland’s Stubb repeats his key line that Russia is not winning the war, as he talks about Russia’s domestic problems.
He says:
“[Putin] doesn’t want to end this war not because he thinks he can advance, because he’s not advancing.
He doesn’t want to end this war because the political and social cost of bringing the soldiers back is too high.
And then we come to the question to what do we do? Number one, increase the economic pressure, sanctions, maritime services, shadow fleet – hit as hard as you possibly can.
And secondly, keep on providing Ukraine with all the necessary means, including Tomahawks.
And then we will bring this home, and Ukraine will win this war.”
If Putin was serious about peace, he wouldn't be attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Danish PM says
Denmark’s Frederiksen now talks a bit more on Ukraine.
She says that if Putin genuinely “wanted peace, he wouldn’t do what he’s doing these days.”
“Can you imagine, it’s like, minus 25 degrees [Celsius] and then you attack the energy system?
It’s so crazy that only Russians would do such a thing but this is how Russia is and it will not change.”
She also says that Ukraine is in a tricky position, as “you cannot win a war with one hand tied [behind] your back” as allies still don’t let if use some types of weapons.
“We need to give them weapons so they can strike into Russia. We have had this discussion for several years. We are still discussing it now,” she says.
Spain’s Sánchez gets again asked on how he squares the talk about Russian threat and the Greenland crisis with his government’s reluctance to meet Nato targets.
He says Spain is ramping up its defence spending, it has troops stationed at the eastern flank, and supports Denmark over Greenland, so it’s doing the right things.
But he says looking at spending is not the only way of evaluating security and defence, and more focus should be on “360 degree security approach” to Nato’s surroundings, not on buying arms.
Imperialism and expansion is in Putin and Russia's DNA, Stubb warns
Finland’s Stubb is very diplomatic, as he says:
“If the outcome of what happened in Davos and what we have seen with Greenland in the past few months is a stronger Arctic presence for Nato, stronger Arctic security, then I think we’ve done quite well.”
He says there are upcoming big exercises in the Arctic to show that the alliance is serious about regional security.
Asked about whether Russia poses a direct threat to Europe, he says:
“Russia is not going to test the resolve of [Nato’s] Article Five. There’s a reason why we deter there’s a reason why a country like Finland has one of the largest militaries in Nato on the eastern flank … there’s Turkey, Ukraine, Poland and Finland.
I don’t see a direct security threat coming from Russia right now, but I’m so in agreement with Mette that when the war is over in Ukraine, the threat is not going to reduce for rest of Europe or for Central Asia or the southern Caucasus, because the inherent DNA of Russia and Putin is imperialism and expansion.”
US interest in taking over over Greenland not over, Danish PM says
Pushed further on Greenland and if the US interest is now over, Frederiksen says “unfortunately not.”
“I think the desire from the US president is exactly the same,” she says, adding Trump remains “very serious” about controlling the territory.
She says that she is open to discussions on ramping up security arrangements for the Arctic, but there are obvious limits to it.
Can you put a price on it, if Trump keeps pushing?, she gets asked.
“Of course not. Can you put a price on a part of Spain, or a part of the US, or a part of anywhere else in the world?,” she responds.
She stresses that this goes back to “one of the most basic democratic principles” of respecting sovereign states.
“And the Greenlandic people have been very clear: they don’t want to become Americans,” she says.
Denmark’s Frederiksen gets asked how likely is it that she will need to have to defend Greenland from the US.
Oof. Not quite your usual opening question.
Frederiksen jokes that “it’s so nice to be on stage with you.”
But she says that essentially, “if one Nato country attacks another Nato country, then Nato ends; it’s game over.”
In contrast to Sánchez’s comments, she says that Nato’s revised 2035 target is not ambitious enough, and should be “the latest by 2030 and maybe [even that] will not be enough.”
Spain’s Sánchez says “we need to stop Putin,” and “need to strengthen our deterrence capabilities,” but insists that needs to be done “in a coordinated and targeted way that we can control.”
“Let’s build a true European army, not in 10 years, but now Spain will join with all the resources that are needed,” he says.
Erm.
At the beginning of the Q&A, it quickly gets pointed out to him, however, the Spain isn’t exactly meeting Nato GDP spending targets, at one of the lowest levels in the alliance according to the last set of numbers.
He says “there are trade offs that we disagree when it comes to this 5% of GDP and defence,” and he says the focus should be on how we spend it – and not necessarily on US defence technology.
Spain's Sanchez says he opposes nuclear rearmament
Spain’s Sánchez begins by saying that while Spain is “far away from Russia, we know quite well that Putin is a real threat.”
He says “that the world is becoming more unstable, and that we Europeans must strengthen our defence capabilities to protect, our freedom and way of life, but also to provide security guarantees to our international.”
But in stark contrast to Merz and Macron yesterday, he says he opposes nuclear rearmament.
“I am hardly the first one thinking that. 70 years ago, our parents and grandparents came to the conclusion that nuclear deterrence was a far too costly and risky way of avoiding conflict between nations.
Too costly because it demand the colossal public investments and too dangerous because on several occasions, technical or human errors came close to triggering a full scale nuclear war between the West and the former Soviet Union, a war which would have brought humanity to the brink of extinction.”
He says that “the system that requires zero mistakes and constant correction to avoid total destruction is not a guarantee – it is a gamble.”
“Nuclear powers have forgotten the lessons of the past, and they are expanding their nuclear arsenals once again,” he says.
The Munich Security Conference is about to restart after the lunch break, and we are shortly going to hear from a number of senior European leaders, including Spain’s Pedro Sánchez, Denmark’s prime minister Mette Frederiksen, and Finland’s Alex Stubb.
Navalny's poisoning shows 'Putin is prepared to use chemical weapon against his own people,' French minister warns
French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot said that Navalny’s poisoning shows that “Vladimir Putin is prepared to use chemical weapons against his own people to remain in power.”
“France pays tribute to this opposition figure, killed for his fight in favour of a free and democratic Russia,” he added.
'Now there is proof: Putin killed Alexei with chemical weapon,' Navalnaya says
Yulia Navalnaya has just responded to the UK statement on her social media channels:
“Scientists from five European countries have established: my husband, Alexei Navalny, was poisoned with epibatidine – a neurotoxin, one of the deadliest poisons on earth. In nature, this poison can be found on the skin of the Ecuadorian dart frog. It causes paralysis, respiratory arrest, and a painful death.
I was certain from the first day that my husband had been poisoned, but now there is proof: Putin killed Alexei with chemical weapon.
I am grateful to the European states for the meticulous work they carried out over two years and for uncovering the truth.
Vladimir Putin is a murderer. He must be held accountable for all his crimes.”
Extraordinary moment as UK confirms Navalny was poisoned by Russia two years on - snap analysis
in Munich
This is an extraordinary moment.
You will remember that the news of Navalny’s death two years ago broke during the very same event, the Munich Security Conference, which was attended by his wife, Yulia Navalnaya.
As we reported at the time,
“As officials at the conference were taking in the news, Navalnaya unexpectedly took to the stage, addressing a crowd of politicians and diplomats just after the US vice-president, Kamala Harris.
Standing at a podium usually reserved for senior politicians, Navalnaya said: “I thought: should I stand here before you or should I go back to my children? And then I thought: what would have Alexei done in my place? And I’m sure that he would have been standing here on this stage.”
Last year, Navalnaya claimed that two foreign laboratories had confirmed her husband was poisoned, after tests on biological samples secretly smuggled out of Russia.
But this is the first time we have a European government formally confirming that they believe Navalny was poisoned and “highly likely” died as a direct result of the poisoining, specifically pointing finger at the Russian administration.
I am sure we will get plenty reactions to this news this afternoon.
Alexei Navalny was poisoned, UK says, blaming Russia for his death
Late Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny was poisoned by Russia with a deadly toxic found in the skin of Ecuador dart frogs, “highly likely” leading to his death, the UK Foreign Office has just said.
“Only the Russian state had the means, motive and opportunity to deploy this lethal toxin to target Navalny during his imprisonment in a Russian penal colony in Siberia, and we hold it responsible for his death,” the UK government said.
“Epibatidine can be found naturally in dart frogs in the wild in South America. Dart frogs in captivity do not produce this toxin and it is not found naturally in Russia. There is no innocent explanation for its presence in Navalny’s body,” it added.
The investigation into his death was conducted by the UK “with partners from Sweden, France, the Netherlands and Germany.”
The UK has reported the poisoning to the Organisation for the prohibition of Chemical Weapons, alleging a “flagrant violation” of the Chemical Weapons Convention by Russia.
The news comes just days before the second anniversary of Navalny’s death in a penal colony in Siberia, and as officials and security experts meet at the Munich Security Conference to discuss the threat Russia continues to pose to Europe, among other things.
Speaking from the Munich Security Conference, foreign secretary Yvette Cooper said:
“Since Yulia Navalnaya announced the loss of her husband here in Munich two years ago, the UK has pursued the truth of Alexei Navalny’s death with fierce determination.
…
“Today, beside his widow, the UK is shining a light on the Kremlin’s barbaric plot to silence his voice.”
Updated
Asked about his 2026 predictions, or for the next six months, Zelenskyy says his more immediate concern is about “tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.”
He says Ukraine will continue talks on peace, and hopefully they will involve more European leaders.
He also says he will keep pushing for Ukraine to join the EU, even as some EU leaders don’t seem to like his repeated requests to get a clear date for it.
He says without a clear commitment, Putin will do everything he can to derail the accession process, “by his hands or hands of some not big countries,” which can only be read as another swipe at Orbán’s Hungary.
He says he is thankful for the continued support, but “we can’t save our lives by saying thank you” as he needs strong security guarantees to keep Ukraine safe after the war.
He says unity will be critical, and the role of the US is “important” as “they only have to make Ukraine stronger than Russia.”
And that concludes the session.
Updated
Nato’s Rutte told EU lawmakers last month that if they think Europe can defend itself without the US, they are “dreaming.”
Does he still think that?
He says he sees “a total unity of vision” between the US and Europe, which makes such discussions speculative and unnecessary.
US senator Wicker offers his take on the state of negotiations, as he says that Putin “has not yet negotiated in good faith, never once.”
He says:
“Vladimir Putin started this war. He’s a war criminal, and as you’ve pointed out, he started committing more war crimes this year, by attacking civilians.
He will begin to negotiate in good faith only when he is hurting.”
Nato’s Rutte gets asked about security guarantees, and his response to the Russian claim – somewhat repeated today by China’s foreign minister Wang Yi – that there are “historical reasons” for the invasion.
He says strongly that “there was absolutely no reason whatsoever for the Russians to invade Ukraine,” whether in 2014 in Crimea or in 2022 with the full-scale invasion.
On security guarantees, he repeats his main line from this conference that there is “a huge shift in mindset within Nato” as “the Europeans take more responsibility for their own defence.”
He says the key thing is to “make sure that Putin will never, ever to try invade again.”
As is now usual for his public statements, he also defends Trump’s record on negotiating with Russia, and says he remains the only leader that can get Putin to move.
Zelenskyy says he feels 'little bit' of US pressure, but there are limits to compromises he can offer
Zelenskyy gets asked about Trump’s latest comments, in which the US president said he should “get moving” and get a deal with Russia.
Is he feeling the pressure?
“A little bit,” he says with a bit of a smile.
He says he understands these signals from Trump, but says Ukraine keeps compromising on several issues.
He says he is ready to discuss many issues, but Ukraine cannot just “run away” from its own territory with hundreds of thousands of people as “a compromise.”
“We don’t hear compromises from Russian side. We want to hear from them something,” he says.
He also gets asked about recent media reporting that the US keeps pushing Ukraine to hold elections, and repeats his pledge from last night: if the US secures a ceasefire for two-three months, he will hold the election.
He then pointedly jokes:
“We can also [offer] ceasefire for Russians if they will do elections in Russia.”
US Republican senator Roger F. Wicker says “what we need specifically is we need to unleash the Tomahawk missiles” on Russia.
“That’s a message that will come from the Congress, [but] it’s the decision of the administration,” he says.
He also urges further sanctions on Russian oil producers.
He says the US public opinion is increasingly supportive of Ukraine, including among Republican voters.
European parliament’s president Roberta Metsola says she will sign off the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine next week, which she says was agreed “at an unprecedented speed.”
She highlights extraordinary levels of solidarity with Ukraine, as demonstrated by loud cheers for Ukrainian athletes during the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games earlier this month.
She says the EU continues to work on its response, working on the 20th package of sanctions against Russia, too.
And she declares her support for Ukraine’s membership of the EU (which continues to be blocked by Hungary, in particular.)
Nato’s Mark Rutte is speaking next, talking about his experience of visiting Ukraine last week as the country had to respond to extreme temperatures amid continued Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure.
He says the Ukrainians he met told him they would never give in to Russian attacks.
He then stresses that “to stay strong in this fight, we have to realise the Russians are not winning this,” as they make “very small gains,” “so small that it’s almost not relevant.”
He says the allies need to make sure the Ukrainians have everything they need to continue the fight and defend not just the frontlines, but its cities and civilians.
Asked about his wishlist, Zelenskyy says he needs more help with energy infrastructure, more missiles, and references a path to the membership of the EU, too.
Zelenskyy says the key focus in peace talks is on making sure so that “in four years, the civilised world is not forced to justify itself again, to shift the responsibility, and not forced again to look for someone else to blame” for another war.
He says “Ukraine is ready for a deal that brings real peace to us, Ukraine and Europe.”
And we go into the Q&A.
'Illusion' to think dividing Ukraine could prevent further war, Zelenskyy warns, drawing comparisons with 1938 Munich agreement
Zelenskyy turns to next week’s talks in Geneva.
He says he hopes they will be “serious, substantive, helpful,” but adds that “sometimes it feels like the sides are talking about completely different things.”
He says that the Russians “often speak about some spirit of Anchorage, and we can only guess what they really mean” – a reference to Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska – while “the Americans often return to the topic of concessions, too often discussed in the context of Ukraine, not Russia.”
He also says that Europe is “practically not” present at the table, and it should be. “It’s a big mistake,” he says.
He warns that Russia’s Vladimir Putin’s actions remind him of the 1938 Munich Agreement, “when previous Putin began dividing Europe.”
“It would be an illusion to believe that this war can now be reliably ended by dividing Ukraine, just as it was an illusion to believe that sacrificing Czechoslovakia would save Europe from a great war,” he says.
Updated
'We can stand up to Russia,' Zelenskyy urges leaders
Zelenskyy also calls out former officials and politicians who are now trying to shift responsibility for not acting to prevent the war.
He stresses that “we can stand up to Russia,” bringing up the example of a Ukrainian athlete disqualified from the Olympics for planning to wear a helmet showing the face of Ukrainian athletes killed in the war.
He repeats that Russia “must not be given any hope it can get away with this crime.”
He says Moscow was most serious about negotiations when Ukraine when it was hit by Ukrainian deep strikes inside its territory.
“The stronger we are, the more realistic peace becomes,” he says.
Zelenskyy says that Ukraine tried everything to prevent the war, but he didn’t get any serious help from the previous US administration to counter the Russian aggression.
“But the most practical advice General [Mark] Milley could give Ukraine at that time was simply dig trenches, and that is the answer my commander in chief brought back.
Just imagine, hundreds of thousands of Russian troops on your borders, massive military equipment, and all you hear is: dig trenches.
So if Russian troops enter Lithuania, God bless, just [as an] example, if or another country on Nato’ss eastern flank, what will the Allies hear then? Will they hear that help is on the way?
Hope so.”
But he says Europe needs to have its own ability to respond to any threat to send a clear signal as he backs call for more defence investment.
He also says that Ukraine has “the strongest army in Europe,” and “that’s why Europe needs Ukraine.”
“I think it’s simply not smart to keep this army outside Nato,” he says, “but at least let that be your decision, not Putin’s decision.”
'None of our people chose to be heroes,' Zelenskyy says
In a moving tribute to ordinary Ukrainians, Zelenskyy says “none of our people chose to be such heroes” as they worry about the war.
But he warns that Putin “is no longer interested in anything else” than the war, as “he cannot imagine life without power or after power.”
“Putin consults more with Tsar Peter and Empress Catherine about territorial gains than with any living person about real life. Can you imagine Putin without war?,” he asks.
He warns that Putin “may see himself as a tsar, but he is a slave to this war,” which is why Ukraine needs strong security guarantees.
The guarantees should answer the main question “how long there will be no war again,” as he says he hopes Trump and the US Congress hear that point clearly.
Russia loses 156 soldiers per kilometer of Ukraine, Zelenskyy says, as he takes swipe at Hungary's Orbán
Zelenskyy says that in both December and January, Ukrainian forces killed and badly wounded more than 30,000 to 35,000 Russian troops.
He says that at the moment, Russia pays with lives of 156 soldiers for every kilometer of Ukraine it secures.
“Putin is not concerned about this now, but there is a level at which he will start to care,” he says.
He says Ukraine aims to get to 50,000 kills a month to raise the price of continuing the war.
He says that Ukrainians are key to stop Russian aggression as they secure free and independent Poland, the Baltics, Moldova, and Romania.
In an angry swipe at Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, with whom he’s been publicly clashing in recent weeks, he says:
“Even one Viktor can think about how to grow his belly, not how to grow his army to stop Russian tanks from returning to the streets of Budapest.”
'Our unity is best interceptor against Russia's aggressive plans,' Zelenskyy says
Zelenskyy goes back to drones, saying Ukraine has “more experience than anyone in the world” on how to defend about them.
He says:
“That is why while we invest in interceptors and protection, Russia invests in breaking unity between all of us, our unity with you, unity in Europe, unity in the Euro-Atlantic community, they want to break it.
Why? Because our unity is the best interceptor against Russia’s aggressive plans – the best one – and we still have it.”
He names several countries, thanking them for their help: Denmark, Germany, Czechia, the Nordics, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Poland, the US, Canada, Turkey and Japan.
But he says Russia also has its “accomplices”, including North Korea and Chinese companies that provide components for Russian weapons and missiles.
He also talks about the importance of stopping the Russian shadow fleet to further cut Moscow off funding for its war.
Iranian regime 'must be stopped immediately,' Zelenskyy says
Zelenskyy turns to the situation in Iran, as he picks up on demonstrations in Munich calling for a change of regime there (covered on the blog yesterday).
He says that Ukraine has no border with Iran or conflict with the Iranian regime, but points out that they continue to sell drones to Russia that kill Ukrainians.
“The Iranian regime has already done and can still do more harm than many other regimes could do in the century. … When they have time, they only kill more. They must be stopped immediately,” he says.
Updated
Risk we face evolve and get worse as war goes on, Zelenskyy warns
Zelenskyy also says the risks that Ukraine face continue to evolve, as he discusses how the Shahid-type drones have changed over the course of the war as they now have a jet engine and fly at different altitude, guided by an operator in real time.
“The longer the war continues, the more resources the aggressor receives, the more dangerous the consequences become, the more dangerous the evolution of weapons and of war itself is, and the evolution of Putin [himself],” he warns.
He expresses some frustration with how slow at times the response to the war had been, with Ukraine waiting “months” or “years” for much needed supplies.
“Everyone who seeks security and peace must understand this every day matters,” he says.
Zelenskyy shows impact of Russian strikes on Ukraine
Zelenskyy says he wants to prompt leaders to “ask yourselves, are you ready not only for the challenges that Russian aggression brings, the challenges of modern war, but also for the constant effort to convince the world to fight for support to defend your country’s interests every single day as Ukraine must do.”
He then references continuing Russian ballistic and drone attacks on Ukraine.
As he talks about it, he has lots of visualisations and images shown on the screens behind him – including of some strikes that took place during his stay in Munich.
“I want you to understand the real scale of these attacks on Ukraine.
As you can see, in just one month this January, we had … to defend against 6000 attack drones, most of them were Shahid drones, and 150 plus Russian missiles of different types, and more than 5000 glide bombs.
And it’s like these every month. Imagine this over your own city. Shattered streets, destroyed homes, schools built underground.
And this is daily life in Ukraine because of Russia.”
He then talks about the devastating impact of these strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and praises the repair and rescue teams working on this emergency.
Zelenskyy begins by thanks to all who “stand with us, not only in words … emotions, but in real actions.”
He then stresses the importance of the PURL, or the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List, scheme that supplies Ukraine with US-made weapons to continue its fight against the Russian aggression.
He then says that one of the worst things that a leader can hear is that the air defence units are empty and cannot repel Russian attacks – and some of them come “at last moment.”
He thanks Germany, Norway, the Netherlands for their help in this area in particular.
Updated
in Munich
Zelenskyy is here and ready to speak – and gets a standing ovation before he even says anything.
Coming up, we will hear from Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Nato’s secretary general Mark Rutte, European Parliament’s president Roberta Metsola and US senator Roger F. Wicker and their ideas on Ukraine shortly.
I will bring you all the key lines here, obviously.
Rubio tells Europe US wants renewed alliance, but on Trump’s terms - analysis
Diplomatic editor
in Munich
The tone of Rubio’s speech earlier was greeted with relief by the delegates in the hall, although many pointed out Rubio was not offering a partnership of equals, but an alliance largely framed in Donald Trump’s terms.
In offering the hand of friendship, in sharp contrast to the tone adopted by the US vice-president, JD Vance, at the same conference last year, Rubio made clear the US was not shifting on its fundamental approach.
Throughout the speech he showered praise on Europe’s history, but in so doing raised questions whether Europe had the capacity to join the US’s rebuilding of the world.
Updated
You have a brief opportunity to grab a (soft!) drink of your choice and a quick sandwich before we go back to the main hall for the next panel on Ukraine, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy among the speakers in just a few minutes.
Starmer hits pro-European tones in urgent speech on unity in uncertain times - snap analysis
in Munich
This was a very pro-European speech by Starmer, at times even resembling Macron’s speech from yesterday – and similarly undercut by serious doubts as to the credibility of the vision he outlined given his precarious future.
His repeated references to “10 years on from Brexit” and “some urgency” in this reset (10:33, 10:56) were particularly interesting: could it be a sign of further rapprochement as we get closer to the actual 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum in June?
Speaking alongside the European Commission’s president, a sign in itself, Starmer has made it pretty clear that his government is very interested in closer defence amid increasingly urgent threat from Russia (10:31, 10:42) and reinvigorating trade ties (10:46), including some sort of alignment with, but not a membership of, the EU single market. And there is some appetite for both of these things on the EU side, too.
But reopening these debates would bring back the usual questions about associated trade offs and political costs, which both are tricky for any UK government, even at the best of times. Just thinking about it give me flashbacks from covering the Brexit years.
There is also a domestic angle to all of that.
As my colleague Jessica Elgot noted last month, the battle over closer ties with Europe is not accidental here as it is likely to be a key dividing line that Labour seeks to draw with Reform.
We heard a bit of that in his comments warning against “the peddlers of easy answers” on “the extremes of left and right” (10:49).
Updated
Starmer gets asked about domestic politics in Britain now, and if he “narrowly just missed being toppled” in the last few weeks and how much credibility he has to talk about these long-term projects being in a difficult spot politically.
He says he rejects that, as he “ended the week much stronger than I started it.”
“My party and my government is completely united on the question of Ukraine and defence and security and the need for stronger relations with Europe, on defence, on security and on economy as well,” he says.
He says some of these issues have support across the parliament, except for Reform party politicians, which he says are “pro-Putin.”
“Imagine, if they were in government in the United Kingdom, the Coalition of the Willing could not exist with the UK’s participation in it; we would not be seen as a leader on the European or international stage,” he says.
He warns that under Reform, “we would be seen as a country that people couldn’t do business with.”
He says Labour supported the Conservative government’s line on Ukraine when it was in opposition, and he’s happy to see this continue after the change of government in 2024.
And that concludes the Q&A.
On Ukraine, the two leaders get asked about reported US pressure on Ukraine to move to a deal, even at the cost of concessions to Russia.
Von der Leyen says it’s important not to fall for Russian propaganda narrative on the war, which she says “is a huge failure” for Putin.
She says it’s important to put pressure on Putin to get him to take peace talks seriously.
Starmer also notes that “we are not dealing with two equal parties,” as “there is an aggressor, which is Russia, and there is Ukraine, which has been subject to attack.”
Starmer gets asked on Greenland and whether he thinks the US threats about the territory are now firmly in the past.
He says he is pleased “that is now in a process of dialogue, which is where it should have been.”
He says the Arctic security is “really important for all of us,” and “we need to do more,” and he is happy that “across Europe, we stuck to those values and principles about sovereignty.”
Talking about relations with the US, von der Leyen also stresses the importance of EU’s digital sovereignty – a pointed remark to the US saying it won’t back down on digital regulation, despite US criticism.
She says “we will not flinch” on that and on online safety.
Macron also made a point about this in his speech yesterday.
Starmer says change in EU-UK relations is of 'some urgency' amid Ukraine war
Stressing the importance of the relationship with the US, Starmer says that “the reality on the ground so far as the UK is concerned is we are working with the US on defence, security and intelligence, 24/7, every single day.”
“I’m often urged back in my own parliament that we should walk away from what we’ve got, and I reject that,” he says.
He also returns to his comments about the need to restart Britain’s relationship with the EU ten years on from Brexit.
“This is of some urgency, because I think that on defence and security … until Ukraine conflict we didn’t really wake up the reality that we’re facing,” he says.
Von der Leyen, Starmer welcome Rubio's 'reassuring' speech
Von der Leyen and Starmer are asked to respond to Rubio’s speech earlier.
Von der Leyen says she was “very much reassured” by what she heard, and she says she is “aligned” with him on the call for Europe to step up its preparedness and face the challenges ahead (though presumably she wouldn’t necessarily agree with his comments on climate policies or migration).
Starmer says Rubio’s comments were “consistent” with what he and von der Leyen are arguing for.
But he says:
“I think it’s really clear, though, that we shouldn’t get in the warm bath of complacency and think that therefore, all we’re really doing is reasserting the continuation of what we’ve had for the last 80 years. That would be a mistake, and it’d be a particular mistake for Europe.”
Asked about Europe and the EU stuck between Russia and a more assertive US, von der Leyen says she would never compare the US to Russia.
She says “Russia is a real threat to us, without any question.”
Starmer warns against 'peddlers of easy answers' on 'extremes of left and right'
Starmer says he understands the politics of it all, but insists “the status quo is not fit for purpose.”
“To me, there’s no question where the national interest lies, and I will always fight for what’s best for my country,” he says.
He says in the past, leaders were “too slow to level with the public” about the threats Europe faced.
He pointedly criticises “the peddlers of easy answers” on “the extremes of left and right” who as “soft on Russia, weak of Nato if not outright oppose to” it.
“The future they offer is one of division and then capitulation,” he warns, saying “the lamps would go out across Europe once again.”
But, he insists, “we will not let that happen.”
And we turn into the Q&A with von der Leyen now.
Updated
Starmer says UK needs look to 'move closer' to EU single market
Starmer says the UK needs to work more closely with the EU, building on last year’s summit seeking to reset post-Brexit relations.
He says the UK wants to be involved in defence tech and AI “to drive greater coherence and coordination across Europe.”
He pointedly references Germany, France, Italy and Poland as key partners, as well as Norway, Canada and Turkey.
He says the UK is ready and sees the urgency to act also on economic alignment with the EU.
“So we must look at where we could move closer to the single market in other sectors as well, where that would work for both sides,” he says.
“The prize here is greater security, stronger growth for the United Kingdom and the EU, which will fuel increased defence spending and the chance to place the UK at the centre of a wave of European industrial renewal.”
He has been ramping up this rhetoric since the beginning of the year:
Adversaries must know that in crisis, they could be confronted by combined nuclear strength, Starmer says hinting at cooperation with France
Starmer also picks up the question of nuclear cooperation with France, referenced by Macron (and Merz) yesterday.
He says that “for decades, the United Kingdom has been the only nuclear power in Europe to commit its deterrent to protect all Nato members.”
But he adds that “any adversary must know that in a crisis, they could be confronted by our combined strength.”
(Guess that’s a hint as to what we’re going to hear from Macron’s nuclear speech later this month.)
Updated
Starmer hints at more cooperation to boost Europe's defence
Oh, look! As predicted (9:00), Starmer references the €90bn loan to Ukraine and “welcome the steps … which could allow us to participate.”
He says he hopes “we can work together like this going forward,” referencing some recent decisions seeking to strengthen Europe’s ability to defend itself.
He says the UK will deploy its carrier strike group to the North Atlantic and the High North this year “in a powerful show of our commitment to Euro-Atlantic security.”
Starmer now turns to broader European policy, saying “Europe is a sleeping giant” that “dwarfs” Russia’s economy more than 10 times over.
But he says that it remains too fragmented, and at times “wildly inefficient” with different, competing types of frigates or tanks it uses.
(As right as he is, it is a bit ironic to be hearing all that from the PM of a country that has actively thrived on the idea of its exceptionalism in Europe.)
“Now the US security umbrella has allowed these bad habits to develop, but now we must break them,” he says.
Starmer defends US alliance, but says Europe must take 'primary responsibility' for its defence to strengthen alliance, Starmer says
Starmer then defends the UK and Europe’s relationship with the US, which he calls “an indispensable ally,” with “unparalled” contribution to the continent’s safety.
But he says “we recognise that things are changing,” as he refers the US national security strategy’s suggestion of its focus shifting away from Europe.
“Europe must take primary responsibility for its own defence, that is the new normal,” he says.
He says there is no point in pretending “we can simply replace all US capabilities,” but “we should focus on diverisfying and decreasing some dependencies.”
“We should deliver generational investments that move us from overdependence to interdependence,” he says.
He talks about “a vision of European security and greater European autonomy that does not herald US withdrawal, but answers the call for more burden sharing.”
He also makes a passing reference to Europeans “asserting each other’s sovereignty as we did on Greenland.”
He then praises Nato’s unique role in history – and pointedly references the alliance’s contribution in Afghanistan, recently questioned by Trump.
And he says that the UK’s commitment to Article Five clause is “as profound now as ever,” and “if called on, the UK would come to your air today.”
He gets some applause for that.
Munich conference applauds Starmer's break with Brexit years Britain
Starmer then delivers his line that “we are not the Britain of the Brexit years any more.”
He gets interrupted by applause in a clear sign of what the audience thinks of Brexit.
He says “in a dangerous world, we would not take control by turning inward; we would surrender it and I won’t let that happen.”
He says that’s why he devotes so much time as UK PM to global issues, as “ I am clear there is no British security without Europe, and no European security without Britain.”
“That is the lesson of history, and is today’s reality as well,” he says to applause.
Updated
'Solidity of peace is softening,' Starmer warns, as he points to 'warning signs' from Russia
Starmer says that “for many years, for most people in the UK war has been remote: something that concerns us deeply, but which happens far away.”
But now “the solidity of peace” has been “softening,” he says.
He says leaders need to get ahead of the “warning signs” from Russia and get ready for what could come in the future.
He says:
“All of the warning signs are there.
Russia has proved its appetite for aggression, bringing terrible suffering to the Ukrainian people.
Its hybrid threats extend across our continent, not just threatening our security, but tearing at our social contract, collaborating with populists who undermine our values, using disinformation to sow division, using cyber-attacks and sabotage to disrupt our lives and deepening the cost of living crisis.”
He says that Russia “has made a huge strategic blunder” in Ukraine, but it continues to rearm and as Nato says it could be ready to use force against the alliance “by the end of this decade.”
He says that even if there is a peace deal in Ukraine, “the wider danger for Europe would not end there,” but only increase.
He says “we do not seek conflict,” but we need to “face these threats”.
“We must be able to deter aggression, and yes, if necessary, we must be ready to fight, to do whatever it takes to protect our people, our values, and our way of live.”
He adds that “as Europe, we must stand own on our own two feet now,” and that means “putting away petty politics and short term concerns” but focusing on working together.
He says it means “acting together to build a stronger Europe and a more European Nato underpinned by deeper links between the UK and the EU.”
Von der Leyen then turns to lessons from Ukraine, as she says that “strenght and deterrence and ultimately lives depend on industrial capacity; producting, scaling and sustaining the effort over time.”
She says Europe needs to “tear down the rigid wall between the civilian and defence sector,” and look at dual-use industries and how its experience as a global powerhouse for car manufacturing, aerospace and heavy machinery can be used in Europe’s defence industry.
She also talks about the use of new technologies, and in particular drones and new AI-assisted weapon systems.
She then says:
“Some ask whether we can afford this, but I say we cannot afford not to.”
She says Europe needs to do more to step up its defences to honour Ukraine’s sacrifice and get more independent.
That’s it from her – she will be back for Q&A.
Starmer is up next.
Europe needs to 'recaliberate' its security strategy to respond to challenges, von der Leyen says
Von der Leyen says Europe needs a new security strategy to “recalibrate the way we use our entire policy toolbox.”
Remember: before coming to the EU, she was a German defence minister 2013-2019, under Angela Merkel.
She says “we in Europe should be ready and willing to use our strength assertively and proactively to protect our security interests.”
She adds:
“We need a new doctrine for this with a simple goal to ensure that Europe can defend its own territory, economy, democracy and way of life at all times. Because this is ultimately the true meaning of independence.”
'10 years from Brexit, our futures are as bound as ever,' von der Leyen says, as she calls for closer relations with UK
Von der Leyen turns to talking about EU’s partners, including the UK.
She praises the UK’s work on expedtiionary forces, involvement across the High North adn in the Baltic region, and the Coalition of the Willing.
She says:
“This means, in this actually volatile time, Europe and in particular the UK, should come closer on security, on economy, on defending our democracies.
10 years from Brexit, our futures are as bound as ever, dear Keir, so it is in our common interest to be ambitious about our partnership.
Because the UK and the European Union, in fact, all of Europe, we are in this together, and we will always stick together.”
Europe going through 'awakening' in response to changing global landscape, von der Leyen says
Von der Leyen references some recent decisions on EU’s Safe programme to rearm the continent, and on further loan to Ukraine.
“This is a true European awakening, and this is only the start of what we need to do,” she says.
She says the EU needs to bring Europe’s mutual defence clause to life – something that Merz also mentioned yesterday – to figure out what it means in practice.
She also says that the EU needs to move faster, turning increasingly to qualified majority rather than unanimity to get around individual countries seeking to bloc its decision-making, she says.
(Viktor Orbán will not like that.)
Europe experiences 'shock therapy' on security as it wakes up from decades of lull, von der Leyen says
Von der Leyen continues by rejecting a suggestion that an independent Europe could somehow weaken the relations with the US.
Referencing Rubio’s speech, she notes that “an independent Europe is a strong Europe, and a strong Europe makes for a stronger transatlantic alliance.”
She says that “over many decades … Europe’s security was not always seen as our primary responsibility,” but insists “this has fundamentally changed.”
“Admittedly, it has taken some shock therapy and some lines have been crossed that cannot be uncrossed any more. But what is needed, at least, we all agree on and we are delivering,” she says.
Von der Leyen calls for 'more independent' Europe in response to global crises
Von der Leyen begins by summing up that the world is essentially on fire, pointing to the state of EU-US relations, Russia’s continuing invasion of Ukraine, and “the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken our union from within.”
She says there is only one way to respond to all of this: by making Europe “more independent … in every dimension that affects our security and prosperity, defence and energy, economy and trade, raw materials and digital tech.”
She gets a round of applause on the word “independent”.
Aaaand we’re going straight into the Europe panel, with the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, up next.
She’s speaking now.
Wang Yi also gets asked about the security situation in Asia Pacific.
He says China remains “an important pillar for peace in Asia,” but accepts there are “challenges.”
He pointedly criticises Japanese prime minister Takaichi for recent comments on Taiwan, saying they directly “violate China’s territorial sovereignty” and were unacceptable to China.
That ends the Q&A.
Updated
On China-US relations, Wang Yi says China wants to be guided by “mutual respect, peaceful existence and willing cooperation.”
He says “whether we can achieve that goal ultimately depends on the US,” but he is encouraged that Trump “has shown respect” for Xi and China in recent comments.
He says “some people” are trying to keep China down and “smear it,” but he hopes for a better outcome.
He paints two alternative scenarios: of a “reasonably” aligned cooperation with the two countries expanding their interests, which he says would be “the best outcome for both countries and the world,” or that of aggressing “decoupling from China” in “a purely emotional, kneejerk way.”
He also mentions Taiwan as a contentious issue.
On relations with the EU, he says China and the EU “are partners who are not systemic rivals or strategic competitors.”
He says it’s “a very negative thinking” to see China as a rival of the EU, and it would be “toxic” to see this narrative amplified further.
He even quotes Confucius to say “we can achieve harmony without uniformity.”
Updated
China hopes for settlement of Ukraine war, and Europe should be involved, Wang Yi says
In the Q&A, China’s Wang Yi gets asked about Ukraine.
He says China’s view is that “we need to find a political settlement,” but stresses China is not directly involved.
But says it backs the talks, and keeps sending a clear message “that we want to see a cessation of hostilities” as early as possible.
“I think now what is being discussed are the real issues,” he says.
Curiously, he quite strongly says that Europe should be directly involved in the talks and not be sidelined in the process – something that many European leaders will definitely welcome.
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Fair play to the interpreter: that speech was delivered really fast.
Wang Yi then turns on to specific conflicts around the world, as he says there are about “more than 60” around the world.
On Gaza, he says “the implementation of ceasefire and reconstruction will require unremitting efforts to implement the two state solution and restore justice to the Palestinian people.”
On Iran, he says the situation there “has a direct impact on peace,” and parties “should act with prudence and avoid creating new conflicts.”
On Ukraine, he welcomes that “the door to dialogue is finally open,” urging parties to “reach a comprehensive, durable and binding peace agreement.”
On Venezuela, he says “the red line of international rule of law must not be crossed.”
He says China will seek to be “a reliable force for stability,” and insists “China and Europe are partners, not rivals.”
“As long as we keep that in mind, we will be able to make the right choices in the face of challenges,” he says.
He urges leaders to “work together to recalibrate the course of history and create a better world.”
And we go into the Q&A.
Updated
China’s foreign minister Wang Yi is up now next.
He warns of “growing turbulence” over the last year, as “humanity has come to a new crossroad.”
He talks about the need to reform international organisations, and the UN in particular, but stresses the need for it to still work.
He says it is “not perfect in its current form, but it remains the most univeral and authoritative” organisation of this sort.
He says the main problem is not with the UN itself, but with “certain countries seeking to magnify differences and disagreements” and “stoking block confrontation and even revive the cold war mentality.”
He doesn’t name them.
He says it’s obvious that countries are different, but “there is no reason why countries cannot respect each other and contribute to each other’s success.”
He says “multilateralism should be always upheld,” as “power monopolisation by a few countries is simply unpopular.”
“We live in a multipolar world, and need to practice true multilateralism,” he says.
Rubio love bombs Europe in style, while issuing stark warnings on substance, and it seemed to work - snap analysis
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You could hear that sigh of relief across the continent.
That was a very different speech to JD Vance’s last year in style, if not necessarily always substance.
Rubio repeatedly made clear his personal and the US’s admiration of Europe, and framing all concerns – or disagreements and frustrations – in this context. The line of that the US will always be a child of Europe was a particularly nice touch.
It’s a clever figure of speech, which JD Vance also partially tried to do last year (at times), but failed with his much more confrontational, almost accusatory tone.
Rubio chose to do it completely differently – with clever references to shared history, and both European and specifically German links with the US – and clearly succeeded, sweet talking the room into giving him a big applause and a partial standing ovation at the end.
You surely know that famous quote that “a diplomat is a person who can tell you to go to hell in such a way that you actually look forward to the trip.”
Well, he’s their chief diplomat after all.
But a small cynic in me wonders: are we entirely sure that other – and more senior – people in the US administration, including both the vice-president and the president, necessarily agree with Rubio’s framing?
I’m not entirely sure.
Also, what if Europe doesn’t want to follow the US on this path, as outlined by Rubio? Is it a suggestion of a renewed partnership, yes, but on Trump’s terms?
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Rubio also gets asked about China – he will be followed by the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi – and the US view of China.
He says “our national interests will often not align,” but stresses the need to keep channels open and talk about how to figure it out.
“We owe it to the world to try to manage those as best we can, obviously avoiding conflict, both economic and worse,” he says.
He says “there are long-term challenges” and “irritants” in the west’s relationship with China, but “we need to try to manage those the best we can.”
And that’s it.
Talks 'narrowed' issues on Ukraine, but hardest questions remain unanswered for now, Rubio says
The Q&A being with a question on Ukraine.
Rubio says the issues that need to be resolved have been “narrowed,” but “to the hardest questions to answer” and that remains tricky.
He declines the moderator’s suggestion that the Russians are not interested in negotiations, saying “we don’t know” that.
“They say they are, and under what terms they were willing to do it, and whether we can find terms that are acceptable to Ukraine upon that Russia will always agree to, but we’re going to continue to test it,” he says.
He says that in the meantime the US and Europe continue to take steps to pressure Russia into negotiations.
He says the US has managed to “make progress” in talks, and further discussions are set to take place on Tuesday.
“I don’t think anybody in this room would be against a negotiated settlement to this war, so long as the conditions are just and sustainable, and that’s what we aim to achieve, and we’re going to continue to try to achieve it is even as all these other things continue to happen on the sanctions front and so forth.”
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Rubio gets big applause and a standing ovation from a large part of the audience.
What a contrast with JD Vance’s speech last year – even as he delivered some similar lines of criticism on deindustrialisation, green policies or massmigration, but phrased in a much more caring way, stressing what unites the US and Europe – and not what divides them.
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End of transatlantic era 'not our goal nor our wish,' Rubio says
In another attempt to win over the European audience, Rubio says “in a time of headlines heralding the end of the transatlantic era, let it be known and clear to all that this is neither our goal nor our wish, because for us Americans, our home may be in the western hemisphere, but we will always be a child of Europe.”
He then lists close connections between Europe and the US, drawing on shared history – with the US story beginning with an Italian explorer, first colonies built by English settlers, and shaped by Scots and Irish, and German farmers, who he jokes “dramatically upgraded the quality of American beer.”
He also draws on his personal story, saying that he is “reminded … that both our histories and our fates will always be linked together.”
He also references Nato troops, saying “we have bled and died side by side.”
He says the US is “charting the path for a new century of prosperity,” but wants to do it with Europe.
And we go into the Q&A.
US does not want allies to 'rationalise broken status quo' but face it and fix it, Rubio says
Rubio insists that the US “do not seek to separate, but to revitalise an old friendship.”
He says “we do not want allies to rationalise the broken status quo rather than reckon with what is necessary to fix it.”
He says the US wants “a reinvigorated alliance that recognises that what has ailed our societies is not just a set of bad policies, but a malaise of hopelessness and complacency.”
US not interested in being 'caretakers of west's managed decline', Rubio says in urgent call to reject 'decline'
Rubio goes back to his historic parallel of Europe immediately after the second world war, as he says back “then – as now – many came to believe that the west’s age of dominance had come to an end and that our future was destined to be a faint and feeble echo of our past.”
But he rejects that and says “decline is a choice” – rejected after 1945 and should be rejected now too.
In an urgent passage explaining the US criticism of Europe, he says:
“We do not want our allies to be weak, because that makes us weaker.
We want allies who can defend themselves, so that no adversary will ever be tempted to test our collective strength. This is why we do not want our allies to be shackled by guilt and shame.
We want allies who are proud of their culture and of their heritage, who understand that we are heirs to the same great and noble civilization, and who, together with us, are willing and able to defend it, and this is why we do not want allies to rationalise the broken status quo rather than reckon with what is necessary to fix it.
For we in America have no interest in being polite and orderly caretakers of the west’s managed decline.”
UN, international bodies need to be urgently reformed as 'we do not live in perfect world,' Rubio says
Rubio also says that while the old international organisation do not need to be dismantled, they need to be urgently rebuilt and reformed to meet the new challenges.
He says the UN has “tremendous potential,” but could not solve the war in Gaza or Ukraine, proving to be “powerless” time and time again – contrasting this with decisive US decisions to move the dial.
“In a perfect world, all of these problems and more would be solved by diplomats and strongly worded resolutions.
But we do not live in a perfect world, and we cannot continue to allow those who blatantly and openly threaten our citizens and endanger our global stability to shield themselves behind abstractions of international law which they themselves routinely violate.”
Rubio takes aim at deindustrialisation, mass migration as risks to Europe
Rubio says that deindustrialisation was “not inevitable,” and a “foolish” result of that postwar “delusion,” as he called it.
He also says that “mass migration is not, was not, some fringe concern of little consequences,” as he warns it is “transforming and destabilising societies all across the west.”
He says the need “to gain control of our national borders” is needed as part of that.
“This is not an expression of xenophobia. It is not hate. It is a fundamental act of national sovereignty, and the failure to do so is not just an abdication of one of our most basic duties owed to our people.
It is an urgent threat to the fabric of our societies and the survival of our civilization itself.”
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US 'little direct and urgent in counsel,' because 'we care deeply,' Rubio says
Rubio says that under Trump, the US “will once again take on the task of renewal and restoration.”
He underlines the close links between the US and Europe, including “shared history, Christian faith, culture, heritage, languagre, ancestry and past sacrifices.”
“So this is why we Americans may sometimes come off as a little direct and urgent in our counsel. … The reason why, my friends, is because we care deeply.
We care deeply about your future and ours, and if at times we disagree, our disagreements come from our profound sense of concern about a Europe with which we are connected, not just economically, not just militarily, we are connected spiritually and we are connected culturally.”
He says the US wants Europe to be strong, because “we know that the fate of Europe will never be irrelevant to our national security.”
He then delivers a long list of reason why Europe is special as he hails Mozart, Beethoven, Dante, Shakespeare, Michelangelo, Da Vinci, The Beatles, and the Rolling Stones, as well as the Sistine Chapel and the Cologne Cathedral.
He says “they testify not just to the greatness of our past or to a faith in God that inspired these marvels, they foreshadow the wonders that await us in our future.”
Rubio talks about postwar delusion mistakes made 'together' by Europe and US
Rubio says that “in this delusion, we embraced a dogmatic vision of free and unfettered trade,” while deindustrialising, shipping millions of jobs overseas, and handing control to “adversaries and rivals.”
He also says “we increasingly outsourced our sovereignty to international institutions, while many nations invested in massive welfare states at the cost of maintaining the ability to defend themselves.”
Rubio continues by criticising green policies “to appease a climate cult,” saying it “impoverished our people, even as our competitors exploit oil and coal and natural gas.”
“In a pursuit of a world without borders, we opened our doors to an unprecedented wave of mass migration that threatens the cohesion of our societies, the continuity of our culture and the future of our people.”
These lines are pretty similar to broader criticism from JD Vance last year, but are delivered very differently as he talks of this as a common mistake of the entire west – and not a criticism of Europe alone.
He eventually says:
“We made these mistakes together, and now together, we owe it to our people to face those facts and to move forward.”
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Postwar triumph led to 'dangerous delusion' on end of history, Rubio says
Rubio is now speaking, drawing on the history of the Munich Security Conference, dating back to 1963.
“We gather here today as members of a historic alliance, an alliance that saved and changed the world. When this conference began in 1963 it was in a nation, actually, it was on a continent that was divided against itself. The line between communism and freedom ran through the heart of Germany,” he says.
He says that “at the time of that first gathering, Soviet communism was on the march,” and “thosuands of years of western civilisation hung in the balance”.
“At that time, victory was far from certain, but we were driven by a common purpose. We were unified not just by what we were fighting against, we were unified by what we were fighting for,” he says.
But he adds:
“The euphoria of this triumph led us to a dangerous delusion that we entered ‘the end of history’ and every nation would now be a liberal democracy, that the ties formed by trade and by commerce alone would now replace nationhood, that the rules based global order, an overused term, would now replace the national interest, and that we would now live in a world without borders, where everyone became a citizen of the world.”
“This was a foolish idea that ignored both human nature and it ignored the lessons of over 5000 years of recorded human history, and it has cost us dearly,” he says.
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Before today’s proceedings get under way, the Munich Security Conference’s chair Wolfgang Ischinger has asked the audience to rise for a moment of silence to commemorate all civilians who died in conflicts around the world, including in Ukraine, Sudan, Iran, and Gaza.
Rubio is up next.
Starmer's Munich speech alongside EU's von der Leyen part of rapidly evolving post-Brexit relations - snap analysis
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Starmer’s session is particularly interesting as he will appear on stage together with the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen.
On Friday, he was very busy diplomatically as he met in various formats – E3, Berlin – with numerous other European leaders, seeking to assert Britain’s place in the new, emerging global (dis)order.
According to Downing Street’s trail of the speech, he will address the obvious Brexit angle directly, saying:
“We are not the Britain of the Brexit years any more. Because we know that, in dangerous times, we would not take control by turning inward – we would surrender it. And I won’t let that happen.”
His intervention comes as the UK hopes to reap greater benefits from a €90bn (£78bn) EU loan for Ukraine by suppying defence equipment to Ukraine funded by the loan. The bloc has indicated it was possible if the UK government agrees a “fair” contribution towards EU borrowing costs.
Starmer also recently signalled he would like to reopen talks with the EU on a defence pact. Negotiations to join the EU’s €150bn Security Action for Europe (Safe) programme collapsed last year.
Let’s see if he makes any of these points while sitting next to von der Leyen.
Morning opening: What will the US say?
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Guten Tag!
US secretary of state Marco Rubio will open the second day of the Munich Security Conference this morning, presenting the US response to Friday’s speeches by Germany’s Friedrich Merz and France’s Emmanuel Macron on the tricky state of the transatlantic relations.
The question on everyone’s minds is whether he will choose to deliver a confrontational speech resembling that by the US vice-president JE Vance last year or will he seek to smoothen the already rocky relationship using some of his diplomatic charm.
The obvious paradox at the heart of his speech is that while Rubio will be speaking to (mostly) Europeans, he will be listened to also back in the US, including by his president, Donald Trump, who wants to see his agenda expressed in clear, even crude, terms. Quite a tightrope to walk for Rubio.
What will it mean in practice? We will know soon.
For what it’s worth, Rubio said before leaving for Munich that while Europeans want and admire honesty, they will also like what he has to say. He is understood to have repeated that declaration to some of the European delegations he met in Munich yesterday. Let see what it means in practice.
But he is not the only big name we are going to hear from the main stage, as he will be followed by China’s foreign minister Wang Yi, European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen and Britain’s prime minister Keir Starmer.
Starmer is expected to tell the conference that Europe is “a sleeping giant” and must rely less on the United States for its defence.
“I’m talking about a vision of European security and greater European autonomy that does not herald US withdrawal but answers the call for more burden sharing in full and remakes the ties that have served us so well,” he will say, according to his office.
We will bring you all the lines from all the key speeches at the MSC, some colour from behind the scenes, and first analysis to what we hear from global leaders here.
It’s Saturday, 14 February 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
