WASHINGTON — With less than six months to go until Election Day, the 10 most vulnerable House members face different threats. Some face primaries that will settle their fates in the coming months. Others face headwinds that could make it difficult to defend their seats in November, as do some of their colleagues who may be added to future versions of this list.
Republicans see a beneficial climate fueled by high inflation and President Joe Biden’s low popularity. While Democrats acknowledge an unfavorable environment, they argue their candidates are battle-tested and have the campaign cash to win.
Democrats will lose the majority if the GOP picks up a net five seats in November. While redistricting shored up seats for both parties in some states, it also put some incumbents in districts where they will have to fight harder for reelection and created some new districts that will host some of this cycle’s most competitive races. Some of those districts will be among the best pickup opportunities for Democrats, including in California, where a trio of Republicans — Reps. David Valadao, Mike Garcia and Michelle Steel — were edged out of this list by colleagues facing primary challenges. Valadao and Garcia are running in districts that Biden would have won by more than 12 points, while Steel is in a district that would have supported Biden by 6.1 points. Democrats have touted their candidate recruitment in those districts and note their registration advantage over Republicans, who argue they are strong candidates running in a favorable environment.
