On Wednesday night, Donald Trump won the Republican debate without showing up. One night later, he surrendered to law enforcement at the Fulton county, Georgia, jail. In the span of 24 hours, cameras captured the essence of the current presidential contest, namely the legal status of the prior occupant of the Oval Office. Whether Trump is a free man or a convict on election day 2024 will weigh heavily upon voters and the republic.
At the debate, six of the eight contenders raised their hands when asked if they would back Trump if he were convicted. With the predictable exceptions of Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, the rest of the pack fell into line.
Despite the fact that Trump was seemingly untroubled by January 6 rioters’ calls to hang Mike Pence from a makeshift gallows outside the US Capitol, the hapless vice-president declared his fealty. And if Pence declined to resist, then Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley could only be expected to acquiesce.
Over the past eight years, the demarcation between the Republican rank and file and Trump’s core has disappeared. Each new indictment bolsters his grip on the Republican party. As a corollary, never-Trump Republicans are now independents and Democrats. Our politics convulses as the party of Lincoln vanishes.
The scene outside the jail was controlled chaos. A cluster of Trump’s supporters descended upon the surrender site. His travails were theirs. By extension, they view the eventual judgments rendered in these cases as a verdict on them.
Their taunt, “screw your feelings”, was always bravado. Yet the resentment is real. Perceived slights are a tremendous political motivator.
Around 7.30pm, Trump entered the jail, one of the grimmest in the US, amid a phalanx of lawyers, Secret Service agents and state troopers. Within a half hour, he left the building. In between, the state of Georgia took his mugshot. For a brief moment, the system processed him as it might process a common criminal.
But only for that moment and not exactly. Most criminal defendants do not fly into Atlanta via private jet or enter with the Secret Service in tow. Said differently, Trump is not the typical defendant.
The cases brought by the special counsel Jack Smith; the Fulton county district attorney, Fani Willis; and the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg are dramas in which US democracy is on trial too. How we perceive ourselves and how others view this country will never be the same.
Regardless, the day’s events stripped away the veneer of untouchability that Trump had cultivated over decades. He is in legal jeopardy. With hindsight, the verdict in the first E Jean Carroll case, that Trump had sexually abused the writer and then defamed her, presaged what has since followed.
By contrast, dignity as traditionally understood was never Trump’s strong suit. He was always tabloid fodder and preferred it that way. John Barron and New York Post headlines were his own inventions.
For Trump and his minions, the coming election is more than a rematch between aging men. It is about revenge – against the deep state, against the justice department and the FBI, against local prosecutors, against the media. His is a bottomless pit of wrath.
At the debate, Haley derided Trump as the most disliked politician in the US. She may have a point, but only barely. A recent poll pegs Trump’s unfavourability at 56%. For Joe Biden and Kamala Harris the numbers are 55% and 52%, respectively.
The polls also show Trump performing better today than he did in 2020. Ron DeSantis fades. Biden’s lead is narrow and tenuous. His record is on the line. Inflation, immigration and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan are all fair game.
Likewise, Hunter Biden and his woes may return to bite his father. For whatever reason, the president will not distance himself from his wayward son. Inviting Hunter to a state dinner was not a one-off. Recently, the two families vacationed together at the Lake Tahoe home of Tom Steyer, the other billionaire who challenged Biden for the Democratic nomination. Love may actually be blind.
For little more than a minute, Trump stood in the front of his jet and proclaimed himself not guilty. He then lumbered up the plane’s stairs while swaths of the country and the media waited for his mugshot to drop.
He faces state charges, outside the purview of the president’s pardon power. Trump has reason to worry.
His inmate number is P01135809. By 5 November 2024, those figures will be etched on the national psyche and splattered on campaign merchandise.
Lloyd Green is an attorney in New York and served in the US Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992
