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Fortune
Fortune
Jordan Blum

Much of Iran’s military may be ‘decimated,’ but it’s winning the energy war as it picks who gets cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz

MUSCAT, OMAN - Locals visit Muscat Anchorage near the Strait of Hormuz on March 30, 2026 in Muscat, Oman. Several Chinese-owned vessels were reportedly able to transit the Strait of Hormuz today, the day after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran would allow 20 ships to cross through the vital waterway. (Photo by Elke Scholiers/Getty Images) (Credit: Elke Scholiers—Getty Images)

The U.S. may continue to “obliterate” Iran militarily over the coming weeks—as President Trump repeatedly threatens—but Iran’s likelihood of maintaining some control over energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz choke point increases daily and could ultimately equate to a “major victory” in the war.

That potential win for Iran, and for its allies Russia and China, would result in higher oil and gas prices—and greater inflation—longer term, leaving the world notably worse off than before the U.S. and Israel initiated the war, energy and geopolitical experts told Fortune.

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