With a win over Indiana last week, Michigan State football has put themselves in a position to earn a bowl bid this week. It’s very unlikely, but there’s a slim chance should things go the Spartans way this weekend.
At 4-7, Michigan State can not finish the season with a winning record and reach the minimum six wins necessary to earn a bowl bid. However, Brett McMurphy of Action Network is projecting there’s a chance there will be spots for teams at 5-7 to receive a bowl bid due to there not being enough six-win teams this year. At the moment, there are 14 open spots remaining for teams to fill all of the 82 bowl game slots, and 23 teams are still alive to reach bowl eligibility. James Madison and Jacksonville State would be the first two teams to get offered bids ahead of the 5-7 teams should there not be enough bowl-eligible teams — this is due to them being bowl eligible by number of wins but ineligible to go to a bowl game per NCAA transition rule.
When it comes to which 5-7 teams receive a bowl bid, that’s when the Academic Progress Report (APR) rankings come into place. According to College Football News, Michigan State ranks No. 28 nationally which is one of the higher spots when it comes to teams that could finish 5-7 and are in play for one of the open bowl bids.
So what you’re telling me is there’s a chance? Yes, there is! The odds aren’t particularly high (not at all actually) but still a chance nonetheless. Here’s what needs to happen for Michigan State to receive a bowl bid this year:
- Win their remaining game against Penn State. A loss to the Nittany Lions ends any postseason chances for the Spartans.
- Have enough things bounce the Spartans’ way where there are enough slots for 5-7 teams to receive a bowl bid and Michigan State is listed as one of the top 5-7 teams in the APR rankings to receive one of those bids.
Like I said, it’s not very likely at all but, hey, after this season I think we would all take any chance of reaching the postseason at this point, right?
So with all of this being said, I’ve outlined below a number of games this week that could impact the Spartans’ chances of going bowling. These are games that are specific to teams that would effectively move ahead of the Spartans for an open-bowl bid.
So without further ado, here is the Michigan State rooting guide for week 13 games:
Toledo (-10) at Central Michigan
When: 12 p.m. ET on Friday
TV: ESPNU
Preferred MSU Outcome: Toledo win
Central Michigan is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Toledo in their final regular season game.
Iowa at Nebraska (-2)
When: 12 p.m. ET on Friday
TV: CBS
Preferred MSU Outcome: Iowa win
Nebraska is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Iowa in their final regular season game.
TCU at Oklahoma (-10)
When: 12 p.m. ET on Friday
TV: FOX
Preferred MSU Outcome: Oklahoma win
TCU is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Oklahoma in their final regular season game.
Utah State (-6.5) at New Mexico
When: 3:30 p.m. ET on Friday
TV: CBS Sports Network
Preferred MSU Outcome: New Mexico win
Utah State is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over New Mexico in their final regular season game.
Navy at SMU (-18)
When: 12 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ESPN2
Preferred MSU Outcome: SMU win
Navy is 5-5 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over SMU. Navy does still remain in play for a bowl game despite a loss this week with a matchup against Army next week still on the schedule.
Northern Illinois (-19.5) at Kent State
When: 12 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ESPN+
Preferred MSU Outcome: Kent State win
Northern Illinois is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Kent State in their final regular season game.
Georgia State at Old Dominion (-3)
When: 12 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ESPN+
Preferred MSU Outcome: Georgia State win
Old Dominion is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Georgia State in their final regular season game.
Arkansas State at Marshall (-2)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ESPN+
Preferred MSU Outcome: Arkansas State win
Marshall is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Arkansas State in their final regular season game.
Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Virginia
When: 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ACC Network
Preferred MSU Outcome: Virginia win
Virginia Tech is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Virginia in their final regular season game.
BYU at Oklahoma State (-17)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ABC
Preferred MSU Outcome: Oklahoma State win
BYU is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Oklahoma State in their final regular season game.
Northwestern at Illinois (-5.5)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: Big Ten Network
Preferred MSU Outcome: Northwestern win
Illinois is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Northwestern in their final regular season game.
Louisana-Monroe at Louisana (-12.5)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ESPN+
Preferred MSU Outcome: Louisana-Monroe win
Louisiana is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Louisiana-Monroe in their final regular season game.
Washington State at Washington (-16.5)
When: 4 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: FOX
Preferred MSU Outcome: Washington win
Washington State is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Washington in their final regular season game.
Florida State (-6.5) at Florida
When: 7 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ESPN
Preferred MSU Outcome: Florida State win
Florida is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Florida State in their final regular season game.
Charlotte at USF (-6)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ESPNU
Preferred MSU Outcome: Charlotte win
USF is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Charlotte in their final regular season game.
California at UCLA (-9)
When: 10:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: ESPN
Preferred MSU Outcome: UCLA win
California is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over UCLA in their final regular season game.
Colorado State (-5.5) at Hawai'i
When: 11 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: Spectrum Sports
Preferred MSU Outcome: Hawai’i win
Colorado State is 5-6 overall and would become bowl-eligible with a victory over Hawai’i in their final regular season game.
Final Thoughts on MSU's Bowl Chances
What are the chances that MSU is bowling?
So do I actually think Michigan State will be bowling this year? Well, while it is still possible in theory, the odds aren’t in their favor at this point.
It starts off with pulling a massive upset of Penn State on Friday night at Ford Field. Michigan State will enter that game as a three-touchdown underdog so the Spartans winning on Friday to finish 5-7 is alone very unlikely.
But if Michigan State wins, then things at least get interesting on Saturday. According to Paul Fanson of Rivals, the Spartans will need their preferred winner to come out on top in 12 of the 17 matchups. Of those 17 matchups, the Spartans, preferred winner is the favorite in only seven games. That would mean at least five upsets would need to occur in the Spartans’ favor (assuming the favorites win the games Michigan State needs). That’s not impossible but, again, very unlikely.
The final element is the fact that Michigan State is in the midst of a coaching search and is extremely banged up. So, if Michigan State even backed its way into a bowl bid, would the program accept it? I’m not sure if they’d actually turn down a bowl opportunity if given that chance but it’s certainly a possibility that we’d have to consider. I’m sure acting head coach Harlon Barnett will be asked this question after the game on Friday if Michigan State wins so that is something to monitor if a Spartans’ upset of Penn State occurs.
So with all of that being said, there’s a chance — but it’s not very high. I’d go as far as stating it’s a 3 percent chance at this point. No hard statistics behind that number, just a rough estimate based on everything that needs to happen. Crazier things have happened in college football, but I unfortunately believe the Spartans’ season will be coming to an end on Friday night in Detroit.
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