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MP Ken O'Dowd's retirement signals race for Queensland's 'must win' seat

Nationals MP Ken O'Dowd is expected to deliver his valedictory speech in parliament today, bringing his 12 years as member for Flynn to a close.  (ABC News: Jed Cooper)

He was an accidental politician who went on to hold his federal seat of Flynn for 12 years.

Now, retiring LNP incumbent Ken O'Dowd's farewell speech to parliament has fired the starter's pistol in the "must-win" race in one of Queensland's fiercest battleground electorates in the coming federal election.

And the major parties are bringing out their big guns to try to convince voters on polling day.

Labor's candidate is current Gladstone mayor Matt Burnett, while the LNP selected member for the state seat of Callide, Colin Boyce.

CQUniversity's Dr Jacob Deem said there was a motive behind opting for familiar faces.

"Both major parties view this as an absolutely critical, must-win seat … and they're really hoping to capitalise on that recognition," he said.

Labor Senator Murray Watt confirmed the ALP viewed Flynn as critical to winning government. 

"The last time Labor won government from Opposition, we won Flynn," he said. 

Despite the LNP's margin of 8.7 per cent, Dr Deem said minor parties and preferences could "make or break the outcome of this seat".

'Money earner' electorate

Mr O'Dowd is expected to deliver his valedictory speech in parliament today. 

He entered parliament in 2010 at the age of 60, after careers as a fuel distributor, publican and hardware merchant.

His election to parliament almost didn't happen. He only stepped up for the LNP when the pre-selected candidate pulled out.

The seat of Flynn couldn't be more removed from the halls of power in Canberra, but its power lays at the feet of voters.

Callide Power Station near Biloela in central Queensland sits in the electorate of Flynn, which is also home to several coal mines. (ABC News: Jasmine Hines)

The seat sits between Rockhampton and Bundaberg, stretching west to the Central Highlands and south to Wondai in the South Burnett.

Almost twice the size of Tasmania, Flynn is home to multiple coal mines and coal-fired power stations, a coal-landing port and an aluminium smelter.

Yet, it's also heavily reliant on primary production with cattle and crops including sugarcane, macadamia nuts, blueberry, peanuts and citrus fruits.

Mr O'Dowd said locals were "very protective" of their patch.

"It's a very diverse electorate, but a very good electorate and it's a real money earner for the Australian government and the Queensland government," he said.

It's this diversity, Dr Deem explains, that often confounds the major parties.

"It's a fascinating dynamic and it's one that's not well understood outside Queensland," he said.

"Queensland has a really interesting horizontally equated economic system with produce and resources starting out west and moving through to the coastal cities.

Communication is key

Gladstone will soon house one of the world's largest green energy hydrogen manufacturing facilities, signalling its importance on the path towards a low carbon economy.

Mr O'Dowd said the main concern among constituents he spoke to was "securing their jobs", but that net-zero "does not rate high on people's minds".

Although the electorate of Flynn is home to coal mines, power stations and the state's largest coal port, it also relies heavily on agriculture making it a unique space for the major parties to campaign in. (ABC News: Giulio Saggin, file photo)

Dr Deem said the way both major parties communicated the transition to a net-zero economy would be key to the election campaign.

He said Labor "did not get that balance right" at the 2019 election in crucial Queensland seats like Flynn.

"They, as a broad policy platform pitched far too much to southern voters, especially inner-city Sydney and Melbourne," Dr Deem said.

"They're going to take a much more cautious approach, I would expect.

"The LNP has a little bit of an easier time, because their policy platform has been more geared to existing fossil fuel industries.

"They have to maintain the same balance, but they've got a bit more of that track record with voters in regional Queensland."

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