Mountain West Football: First Look at the USC Trojans
The Trojans look well on their way to becoming a Pac-12 power again, but they’ll first contend with two Mountain West teams in 2023.
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Unlike some bluebloods, USC might actually be “back”.
Nevada Football: First Look at 2023 Non-conference Opponents
USC | Idaho | Kansas | Texas State
San Jose State Football: First Look At 2023 Non-conference Opponents
USC | Oregon State | Cal Poly | Toledo
After several years in the wilderness, the USC Trojans announced their return with an exclamation point in 2022.
First came the shocking hire of head coach Lincoln Riley. Then, quarterback Caleb Williams followed Riley from Oklahoma to Los Angeles. Then came a wealth of other incoming transfers and, when all was said and done, the men of Troy were back in a New Year’s Six bowl game for the first time since 2017.
The expectation to write a Hollywood ending remains as high as ever, however, which means that Nevada and San Jose State will tangle with a very talented and motivated Trojans roster in non-conference play.
Location: Los Angeles, California
Conference: Pac-12
Series History: USC leads the all-time series against Nevada, 5-0, and leads the series against San Jose State, 5-0.
2022 Record: 11-3 (8-1 Pac-12)
Head Coach: Lincoln Riley (second year; 11-3 at USC, 66-13 overall). Riley’s sudden exit from Norman sent shockwaves across the college football landscape, but he hit the ground running at USC thanks to a Heisman-winning quarterback and a defense with a knack for creating lots of turnovers. The only real blemishes were an inability to defeat Utah, who stunned the Trojans twice last season, and letting a 15-point, fourth-quarter Cotton Bowl lead slip away against Tulane.
Heading in 2023, USC is one of the few teams nationally which could claim missing the College Football Playoff will qualify as a disappointment. Considering the Trojans are projected 7th overall by preseason SP+ and return 76% of last year’s production, they’re certainly loaded for bear.
Key Players
Caleb Williams, QB
What can you say about Williams that a Heisman Trophy wouldn’t say for you? Williams posted an overall PFF grade of 91.7 on the strength of 52 total touchdowns (42 passing, ten rushing), a 66.6% completion rate through which he averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, and a minuscule 1% interception rate. He’s already widely considered a candidate to be selected first overall in next year’s NFL Draft, so it’s really more a matter of containing his talent rather than stopping it.
😳 @CALEBcsw went with the NO LOOK flip for the TD @uscfb pic.twitter.com/Jo3aygU7vZ
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 12, 2022
Emmanuel Pregnon, OG
The Mountain West has seen a number of talented players leave for the Power 5 over the last couple years, but Pregnon’s exit from Wyoming is nothing but good news for the Trojans. In his lone season as a starter for the Cowboys, Pregnon allowed just two sacks and four hurries in 625 total snaps, finishing fourth among Mountain West guards with an overall PFF grade of 73.9.
Calen Bullock, S
Since starting as a true freshman two years ago, Bullock has done nothing to dispel the belief that he’s one of the top safeties in the country. Pro Football Focus tabbed him as a first-team All-American last year after he earned a 82.5 overall grade with 48 total tackles, five pass breakups, and five interceptions.
#USC S Calen Bullock.
Deep ball range — from the far hash. pic.twitter.com/WxWDHpCeC0
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) June 9, 2023
Tajh Washington, WR
Yes, Caleb Williams has a comical amount of weapons at his disposal, but Washington is a difference maker out of the slot. 87.4% of his snaps came inside last year and he finished second to Jordan Addison in receptions (50), receiving yards (785), and receiving touchdowns (six). With Addison off to the pros, he could be in line for more than the 70 targets he saw in 2022.
Mason Cobb, LB
Cobb is far from the only new Trojan slated for a big role this fall, but the Oklahoma State transfer is a strong candidate to be the best of that bunch. He racked up 13 tackles for loss last season, tied for fifth-most among Big 12 defenders, and 96 total tackles, which ranked in a tie for seventh. Pro Football Focus also credited him with 51 stops (third in Big 12), so chances are you’ll hear his name early and often on Saturdays this fall.
Overview:
Offense
We can keep this one simple: USC’s offense was sick in 2022. The Trojans tied for first among all FBS teams by averaging 3.76 points per drive and ranked fourth in earning 65.9% of available yards per drive, though it might suffice to note that they were one of just five offenses to average seven yards per play.
It might be setting an absurdly high standard to expect USC to do it again… but they could. Williams is as good an engineer as you’ll find in college football and Washington is just one of the many pass-catching talents at his disposal: Mario Williams (40 catches, 631 yards, five touchdowns) and Brendan Rice (39-611-4) are both back and the Trojans added Dorian Singer (66-1105-6 at Arizona) from the transfer portal. It’s a true embarrassment of riches.
There are more questions at running back and offensive line but — surprise! — the Trojans have loaded those units, too. Travis Dye, last year’s top running back, is gone but Austin Jones (135 carries, 705 yards, six total touchdowns) returns and USC courted MarShawn Lloyd (111-573-9 at South Carolina) from the transfer portal. It’s the same story up front, as well: Andrew Voorhees and Brett Neilon have moved on, but Pregnon, Jarrett Kingston (Washington State), and Michael Tarquin (Florida) could all step in alongside senior swingman Justin Dedich (79.1 PFF grade) and junior tackle Jonah Monheim to keep things rolling along.
Oh, did we also mention this offense is adding the top wide receiver prospect (Zaccariah Branch) and the top tight end prospect (Duce Robinson) from the 2023 recruiting class? This unit could crack 40 points a game again without breaking a sweat.
Defense
For as often as the offense dazzled, the defense had stars but often gave up a ton of ground. Where the offense ranked in the top five by points per drive and available yards percentage per drive, USC’s defense ranked 111th and 116th, respectively, and while their team sack rate was a respectable 7.6% (34th) and a +21 turnover margin paced the nation, it’s very telling that they also finished 124th in yards per play allowed.
Needless to say, defensive coordinator Alex Grinch has been a very divisive figure who’s now tasked with finding success in more sustainable ways. Up front, the defensive line is likely to revolve around a number of incoming transfers like Kyon Barrs (39 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss at Arizona), Jamil Muhammad (44 tackles, five TFLs at Georgia State), and Anthony Lucas (Texas A&M), though holdovers like Solomon Byrd, Romello Height, and former #1 overall recruit Korey Foreman could also factor in.
The linebacker unit should also be fully stocked with veterans like Shane Lee (78 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks) and Eric Gentry (71 tackles, four TFLs, two sacks) joining forces with Cobb and highly-regarded freshmen like Tackett Curtis.
In the secondary, Bullock and Max Williams (79 tackles, five pass breakups, two interceptions) give the Trojans a reliable safety tandem, but how things will shake out at cornerback is a little less clear. Youngsters like Ceyair Wright and Domani Jackson will sort that out alongside Arizona transfer Christian Roland-Wallace (58 tackles, six pass breakups, two forced fumbles) and others, and it’ll take a group effort to improve upon the 63.7% completion rate and eight yards per attempt they allowed to opponents in 2022.
Early Predictions
Nevada could be much improved and San Jose State may look like a conference title contender as 2023 progresses, but it’s doubtful either of these games will be close.
USC 59, Nevada 7
USC 45, San Jose State 17
Want to learn more about USC football? Be sure to visit our friends over at Trojans Wire.
