Mountain West Football: First Look at the Oregon State Beavers
The Beavers surged in 2022, but their staying power will be tested by two of the Mountain West’s top teams in 2023.
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Can the Mountain West breach the newly bolstered dam?
sAN dIEGO sTATE Football: First Look at 2023 Non-conference Opponents
Ohio | Idaho State | UCLA | Oregon State
San Jose sTATE Football: First Look At 2023 Non-conference Opponents
USC | Oregon State | Cal Poly | Toledo
If you’ve been wondering these days whether patience is a virtue, look no further than Oregon State football for your proof. Though it took five seasons to accomplish, the Beavers solidified their overall identity in 2022 and nailed down their first ten-win campaign since 2004.
While the likes of USC, Oregon, and Washington are deservedly considered front-runners for the Pac-12 crown this fall, OSU has built a foundation strong enough to challenge that projected order. That could mean the Beavers will be a difficult assignment for both San Diego State and San Jose State in non-conference play.
Location: Corvallis, Oregon
Conference: Pac-12
Series History: Oregon State leads the all-time series against San Diego State, 3-2, and leads the all-time series against San Jose State, 4-2.
2022 Record: 10-3 (6-3 Pac-12)
Head Coach: Jonathan Smith (sixth year, 26-31 overall). Oregon State had bottomed out with a 1-11 season in 2017 under Smith’s predecessor, Gary Andersen, but the Beavers made strides year after year before a big leap forward in 2022 which included wins over Boise State, Fresno State, and rival Oregon (and which could have been even better if not for three-point losses to both USC and Washington).
Now that the bar has been raised, the expectation is that they’ll remain a dangerous foe for those at the top of the Pac-12, a belief buoyed by the fact OSU returns 64% of last year’s production (including 76% on offense) and projects 30th by preseason SP+.
Key Players
Jake Levengood, C
If you’re thinking to yourself, “A center? Really?”, consider that Levengood spent two seasons as one of the best guards in the Pac-12 before moving to center in 2022 and thriving there, too. He finished tenth among all FBS centers with an overall PFF grade of 79.2, allowing zero sacks and just one quarterback hit in 807 snaps. Don’t be shocked if he makes a run at the Rimington Trophy this fall.
Damien Martinez, RB
If you’re trying to identify the top young running back in college football, Martinez has to be on the shortlist. The Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year and first-team all-conference running back ran for 982 yards and seven touchdowns on just 161 carries, a performance that included six straight games in which he earned over 100 yards. Given the turnover at the position in his conference, he might already be the best running back in the Pac-12.
Kitan Oladipo, S
The Beavers secondary played at a high level in 2022, but Oladipo is one of the few holdovers back for this season. They’re surely glad to have him, though, considering he finished last year ranked tenth among Pac-12 defenders with a PFF overall grade of 79.9 on the strength of 81 total tackles, four tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, and six pass breakups.
DJ Uiagalelei, QB
One of the highest-profile names to switch schools through the transfer portal this off-season, Uiagalelei is almost certainly one of the country’s biggest X-factors headed in 2023. After landing in the public consciousness as a true freshman in 2020, he lost his grip on the starting job at Clemson following numerous struggles over the past two years, finishing his career with the Tigers having completed 59.8% of 861 pass attempts for 5,681 yards and 36 touchdowns against a 1.9% interception rate.
The former five-star prospect still has the physical goods to make the Beavers offense dangerous, however, as he also rushed for 913 yards and 15 touchdowns in three seasons at Clemson. If he rediscovers his touch, Uiagalelei could be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation.
DJ Uiagalelei with his second TD of the day🎯
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 24, 2022
Jack Velling, TE
Oregon State always seems to have one or three quality tight ends on their roster at any given moment, which means that Velling could be in for big things after making seven starts as a true freshman and grabbing 16 of 24 targets for 281 yards and three touchdowns. That 17.4 yards per reception ranked fourth among all FBS tight ends with at least 20 targets, so linebackers and safeties beware.
Happy birthday Jack! 🦫🎂 (@JackVelling) #GoBeavs pic.twitter.com/T9mmkUgalq
— Oregon State Sports (@_OSUsports_) October 29, 2022
Overview:
Offense
The Beavers continued their recent run of strong performance on offense last season, finishing in the top 50 among all FBS teams by points per drive for the fourth straight year (2.68 PPD, 31st) and earning 51.7% of available yards per drive (40th). That came on the strength of an offensive line that knew how to open running lanes (54.2% opportunity rate, 9th) and protect the quarterback (4.3% sack rate allowed, 27th) and a trio of running backs who combined to run for 2,023 yards, at 5.6 yards per carry, and 18 touchdowns.
All three members of that trio — Martinez, DeShaun Fenwick, and Jamious Griffin — are back for 2023. The offensive line, headlined by Levengood and tackles Taliese Fuaga (80.4 PFF grade, 25th among FBS tackles) and Joshua Gray (79.9 PFF grade), also brought in Nevada transfer Grant Starck (76.0 PFF grade) and could very well make another collective run at the Joe Moore Award.
The bigger questions surround the passing game, where Uiagalelei will have to prove he’s a definitively better option than Ben Gulbranson, who stepped up when called upon as a redshirt freshman in 2022 and completed 62.4% of his throws for 1,455 yards (7.5 yards per attempt), nine touchdowns, and a 2.5% interception rate. Pass catchers will need to step up in order to replace the star trio of Tre’Shaun Harrison, Tyjon Lindsey, and Luke Musgrave, as well, though the good news is that Silas Bolden (23 catches, 305 yards, four touchdowns), Anthony Gould, and Velling all return to provide a few proven options for whoever emerges at quarterback.
Defense
Where the offense maintained, the OSU defense took a major step forward by rising to the top of the Pac-12 by allowing 5.19 yards per play and vaulting to 17th and 26th, respectively, in points per drive allowed and available yards percentage per drive allowed. That marked their best overall performance on this side of the ball since arguably 2012.
They have a few pressing questions to answer heading into 2023, though. First, for as good as they were last season OSU managed a team sack rate of only 4.4%, which ranked 119th in the country. Where defensive linemen Sione Lolohea and James Rawls combined for 16 tackles for loss, they also managed just 3.5 sacks; Wyoming transfer Olusasyi Omotosho (6.5 sacks) could help with that, but they should remain stout against the run with veteran defensive tackle Isaiah Hodgins also back in the fold.
At linebacker, the major question is how they’ll replace the tandem Omar Speights, who transferred to LSU, and Kyrei Fisher-Morris. They do return Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (37 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss) and John McCartan (34 tackles, 4.5 TFLs) while bringing in transfers like CJ Hart (Illinois) and Mason Tufaga (Utah), but battling regression here could be tough.
That’s also true of the secondary to a certain extent, which brings back Oladipo, Akili Arnold, Alton Julian, and nickelback Ryan Cooper but will need to replace a trio of productive veterans. Is it likely that they’ll have more interceptions than touchdowns against them again? Maybe not, but they’ve built a modest reputation for development and can’t be overlooked.
Early Predictions
The Beavers won’t sneak up on anyone this year but, despite the lingering defensive concerns at present, the potency of Oregon State’s offense might be too much for both the Aztecs and Spartans to contain for sixty minutes.
Oregon State 35, San Diego State 20
Oregon State 30, San Jose State 24
