The Mountain West will look to take advantage of the expanded College Football Playoff and send the first team from the league to the CFP.
While Boise State is the clear favorite to win the Mountain West this season for a second straight season, there are plenty of competitive teams with Fresno State and UNLV viewed as the two closest competitors. However, can mid-tier teams like Colroado State and Wyoming make the push up the conference?
Here's how I view the Mountain West heading into the 2024 season with a pair of win totals I'm eyeing, a league dark horse and the most likely winner of the league.
For more on the Mountain West check out the win totals for each team here as well as each team’s conference championship odds.
Mountain West Conference Preview and Best Bets
Colorado State Over 6.5 Wins (+100, BET365)
It’s year three for Jay Norvell in Fort Collins, and the team has improved in each of the first two years, and I’m confident there is a leap coming from a talented Rams team.
After winning three wins in 2022 and five in 2023, I see the Rams winning seven or more in 2024 behind a roster that has plenty of talent around big armed quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and 1,100-yard receiver Tory Horton.
The run game was an issue early in the season, but Justin Marshall ran for 90 or more yards in the final three games of the season, taking over the team’s starting RB job heading into this season. Meanwhile, the passing game will be the focus as Nicolosi builds on a promising freshman campaign behind a returning group of five starting offensive linemen that allowed 14 sacks last season.
On defense, the team racked up 86 tackles for loss, 16th most in the country but do need to replace its best pass rusher in Mohamad Kamara who leaves after tallying 13 sacks and Grady Kelly who made second team All-Mountain West last season. While the defensive line may take a step back, the secondary should improve with the return of Henry Blackburn and Jack Howell at safety as well as healthy transfer Isaiah Essissima.
The Rams draw a favorable schedule, avoiding Mountain West favorite Boise State and third choice UNLV. To be fair, the team does go to Fresno State where the team will be underdogs, but in conference play the team goes to Air Force, which is a big question mark heading into the season and Nevada where the team figures to be a big favorite.
Despite a loss coming against Texas, a home game against Colorado is a possible swing game that will all but certainly lock up this over win total.
In all, I view the team as considerable favorites in six games, with only two very likely losses on the schedule in the aforementioned Texas and road game at Fresno State. If the team is able to grab a road win against Oregon State or Air Force on the road – or even a frisky Wyoming team, the team should get to seven wins with the upside of this offense.
Utah State Under 5.5 Wins (-150, BET365)
The Aggies have had a brutal offseason that started with a host of players transferring out after spring practice and coach Blake Anderson being fired over the summer.
Now, Utah State is scrambling to keep the roster together and get ready for a season under former defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling.
The Aggies took several quarterbacks in the transfer portal this season, but Anderson named Iowa transfer Spencer Petras the starter following the spring. We’ll see if that holds, but given the state of the program and Petras’ limited ability at Iowa, I’m not so bullish on this offense despite a solid skill position group.
While Robert Briggs Jr. is ultra talented and No. 1 wide receiver Jalen Royals returns after 1,000 yards, the Aggies will need a new offensive coordinator considering Anderson was heading up the unit going into this season.
Anderson’s offense had been the saving grace for this team during most of his tenure, winning shootouts en route to winning at least six games in each of his three seasons in Logan.
However, the defense has been a massive concern and likely not getting any better. The team allowed 30 or more in seven of 12 regular season games last season and went 3-2 in one score games including a pair of overtime victories.
There was looming regression coming for this group and I believe this is a perfect storm for a down year after the team ranked outside the top 90 in net success rate.
A tough schedule will do the team no favors with a pair of non conference games against USC and Utah as well as traveling to Boise State before hosting UNLV on a short week.
I see it as a tall ask for the Aggies to return to bowl eligibility given the tumultuous offseason and the question marks at quarterback and who is running the offense.
Mountain West Championship Dark Horse: Wyoming (+1400, DraftKings Sportsbook)
While Craig Bohl retired after a successful tenure in Larmie, there is a case to be made that the Cowboys can remain in the discussion of the Mountain West elite due to a proven system around former defensive coordinator and now head coach Jay Sawel.
The Pokes are always going to be around its defense and a stout run game, which the team can lean on yet again in 2024.
The team is top third in the country in returning production for a unit that was about the national average in EPA/Play and 35th in yards per play. The Pokes will count on a stout defensive line that returns the likes of DeVonne Harris Jordan Bertagnole as well as stud linebacker Shae Suiaunoa, who had 93 tackles last season.
I expect the defense to remain reliable, and while the offense has an unproven passer in Evan Svoboda, he proved to be capable in spot duty last season and is a dangerous runner as the Cowboys look to maintain a run-first identity. Harrison Waylee is back after rushing for nearly 1,000 yards in only nine starts last season, forming a dangerous run game.
What makes this team a dark horse, though, is the schedule.
Wyoming hosts Boise State, but avoids Fresno State and UNLV while the team’s next toughest game will be at Colorado State where the team gets a bye week.
After that, the team will play road games at San Jose State and New Mexico, each with a win total below 5.5 with the more challenging games, home Air Force and San Diego State coming in Laramie.
With a crowded middle of the conference, Wyoming may loom as a dark horse yet again after three straight seasons of seven wins or more.
Mountain West Championship Best Bet: Boise State (+110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
While the likes of Fresno State and UNLV have talent, it's evident that Boise State is a cut above the rest and a likely Mountain West Champion that has College Football Playoff upside.
The Broncos will return one of the best running backs in the country Ashton Jeanty, who tallied over 1,900 all-purpose yards last season, and welcome one of the best Group of Five transfer quarterbacks in history with former five star Malachi Nelson transferring from USC to the smurf turf.
The offense should hum under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter with the likes of Texas A&M transfer Chris Marshall teaming up with Latrell Cpales and speedster Austin Bolst in the passing game.
On defense, former DC Spencer Danielson took advantage of the interim head coaching job to lead a late season surge, shedding the interim tag and taking over as head coach. He kept all 11 starters on that side of the ball, including All-American honorable mention Ahmed Hassaein and linebacker Seyi Oladipo.
The unit did finish bottom half of the country in EPA/Play last season, but after firing head coach Andy Avalos mid-season, the unit found its stride down the stretch. With the roster in place, Danielson likely can keep this team trending in the right direction on defense.
This is arguably the most talented G5 team and is rightfully pegged as the favorite to win the league going into the season.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Mountain West College Football Preview: Odds, Prediction to Win and Best Win Total Bets for 2024 Season.
