The upcoming pattern from the Ohio Valley to New England will contain themes of cooler conditions and patches of dry weather through the middle of June. The dry stretches will particularly grip interior regions of the Northeast, while the coolest air is most likely to be noticed from far northern Pennsylvania and New York to Maine.
Part of this pattern in the Northeast will result from a protruding dip in the jet stream that is expected to take shape throughout this week. AccuWeather Long-Range forecasters have been monitoring the energy traveling eastward in the upper levels of the atmosphere from what was once Typhoon Mawar in the West Pacific last week, noting that residents across the Northeast will eventually face some degree of impact from the energy transport.
“Typically, when a tropical feature recurves into the North Pacific, we often look for a dip in the jet stream across the Northeastern U.S. roughly 6-10 days after it recurves. Therefore, into about mid-June, temperatures will trend near to below the historical average in portions of the Northeast and New England,” explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva.
Forecasters note that there may be two noticeable bursts of cooler air across the Northeast throughout the upcoming two weeks, which can occur from midweek to late week around June 7-9, and the start of the following week, June 12-13. There are concerns that daytime temperatures could fall between 8-15 degrees Fahrenheit below the historical average for this time of year later this week.
By Wednesday night, there could even be widespread overnight lows dropping into the lower 40s F across parts of northern Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and northwestern Maine. It is not out of the question that the typically cooler spots in this corridor dip into the upper 30s F at some point during the overnight hours late this week.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham further explained that as this energy from potent tropical features tracking northward across the West Pacific gets wrapped up within the jet stream and eventually shoots northeastward, the amplified upper-air pattern over the United States can become enhanced and result in high pressure developing in western Canada. As high pressure forms to the west in Canada, it allows for a dip in the jet stream to form to the east in the United States.
As the jet stream dips across the Northeast and a zone of low pressure forms along the coast, parts of New England are likely to observe occasional showers throughout this week. Locations across Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont stand the best chance at daily shower activity later this week as low pressure circulates nearby and feeds moisture over the region.
Cities such as Bangor, Maine, are ahead of schedule so far this month with regard to monthly precipitation, currently at 170% of their typical rainfall value for this time in June. With rain expected to make return appearances throughout the upcoming week, this trend is expected to continue, and the current pattern can allow them to climb to the historical average monthly rainfall value of 3.87 inches sooner rather than later.
However, locations farther west into the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes Region and areas of the mid-Atlantic could have limited, if any, rainfall over the next week.
“It has been very dry here in recent weeks, so expanding drought conditions will become a concern,” stated Buckingham.
The first several days of June featured rather warm weather throughout the Northeast as temperatures soared above the historical average. Residents in Burlington, Vermont, experienced the earliest 96-degree temperature reading in the city’s history on Thursday, June 1. Typically the first 90-degree day of the year occurs around June 19.
Several other locations across the mid-Atlantic region and New England also set record-breaking highs on Friday, June 2. Baltimore observed a high temperature of 97 F on Friday, breaking the previous record of 96 F set 100 years ago. Similarly, on Friday, Williamsport, Pennsylvania, broke its 100-year temperature record by a degree when it climbed to 96 F.
Dry conditions across the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley have prompted fire weather watches and red flag warnings this weekend. Moderate to strong winds, low relative humidity, dry soils and temperatures a few degrees above the historical average contribute to the elevated fire risk.
Throughout portions of the Northeast, abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought have resulted in relatively low river and stream levels. As a result, this has put a damper on the plans of outdoor enthusiasts trying to get in the rivers for a day of kayaking or tubing.
Given the dry conditions, anyone hoping to get out camping across the Great Lakes Region to the mid-Atlantic states during the first half of the month may have to take extra measures to ensure campfires are adequately monitored in areas not under a burn restriction. The risk of regional wildfires, such as the ones that flared up in northern Michigan to even areas of southern New Jersey, has become a growing concern in the past week.
Smoke from fires burning in Quebec, Canada, has even traveled southward to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with the help of decent north-northeasterly winds and can easily be picked out on satellite imagery. Hazy skies and poor air quality will continue to be a theme for this sector of the country for the upcoming days if the fires rage on.
Produced in association with AccuWeather
